217.1 The District's growth projections are based on a combination of the regional forecasts, approved and planned development, and land supply estimates. These projections anticipate a greater pace of growth and increased household size than was used in 2006. While many factors may influence these projections, particularly in the out-years, they are intended to ensure that the District, through the Comprehensive Plan, is adequately preparing today for future growth. Table 2.2 provides a summary.

217.2 Table 2.2: Population, Household and Job Forecasts, 2015-2045

	2015	2020	2025	2030	2035	2040	2045
Households	297,100	319,300	341,000	362,500	380,600	396,200	411,900
Population	672,200	729,500	787,100	842,200	893,900	940,700	987,200
Employment	798,300	846,300	895,100	937,900	978,200	1,011,800	1,045,400
Jobs/Housing Ratio	2.69	2.65	2.62	2.59	2.57	2.55	2.54
Avg DC Household Size	2.11	2.13	2.16	2.18	2.21	2.24	2.27

217.3 Because the Census is only taken every 10 years, estimates of population and household growth begin with the 2010 Census as the base, then adjust this using the Census's Annual Estimates of Population and the American Community Survey. Since 2005, these sources have closely matched the District's own population forecasts.

217.4 The Comprehensive Plan's household and population forecasts use a supply-side method, which relies on the construction of new square footage of non-residential space and residential units. This newly built space reflects the capacity to absorb net new job and household demand. The Plan's forecasts begin by tracking the number of housing units in larger new developments as they progress from conceptual plan to completion. Occupancy rates and average household size by building type are applied to each development to estimate the increase in households and the population increase from migration. Net natural increase (births minus deaths) is then added to the population numbers to reflect growth from within the District. Using this method, recent growth is reviewed and five-year growth forecasts through 2030 are provided, as noted in Table 2.2 and described below.

217.5 Between 2010 and 2015, the District added approximately 30,000 households and the population increased by 70,000. This matched changes in the housing supply from new construction, subdivision of larger units into a greater number of smaller units, and decreases in vacancy to historic lows.

217.6 The 2015-2020 growth increment consists of actual projects that are now under

construction plus a portion of planned projects expected to start construction and reach completion by 2020. The largest share of these projects are rental buildings that will increase the percentage of rental households as a share of the District's overall households. Rental buildings are the largest share of these projects, and that will increase rental households as a share of the District's overall households. This growth will result in a net gain of about 22,000 households and is expected to increase the city's population to almost 730,000 by the 2020 census. This assumes that household size will start to increase from 2.11 to 2.13.

217.7 Growth forecasts for 2020-2025 are based on specific projects that have received a pre-development approval and portions of projects still in more conceptual stages. About 22,000 households are expected to be added during this period, bringing the city's population to 787,000 by 2025.

217.8 From 2025 to 2030, the remaining projects that today are in the early conceptual stages of pre-development are expected to deliver and be occupied. During this interval the forecast expects the city to grow by over 21,000 households and 55,000 residents for a total of over 362,000 households and 842,000 residents.

217.9 From 2020 to 2035, a significant portion of the District's growth is expected to occur on the large sites described earlier in this Element, contributing 14,000 households and 23,000 people. These large sites have significant capacity, but also significant planning and infrastructure needs. Growth from these sites is spread across several time intervals due to site complexity and where they are in the development process. Beyond the large sites, growth is expected to continue on the remaining smaller vacant and underutilized sites, until the District's population approaches 990,000 and 412,000 households by 2045.

217.10 A forecast of age growth in the population growth, from 2006 to 2025, is now included. Figure 2.11 shows several trends in how the city's population is anticipated to change by age. First, the large influx of younger, 20-30-year-old individuals who arrived between 2006 and 2016 will age, and as they start families an increase in children is anticipated. In addition, the number of older residents will increase. This age forecast has important implications for how the District will respond to:

1. Increasing demand for pre-school, daycare, and public schools as well as playgrounds and parks from a growing population of children;
2. Rising housing costs as recent residents enter their prime income-earning years; and
3. Rising demand for senior services as the baby boom generation retires and grows older.

217.11 Figure 2.11 Forecast of DC Residents by Age: 2015-2025

217.12 In 2006 the biggest unknown in the forecasts was how the types of households and household size would change. If the District were to lose families and attract only small one- and two-person households, the 2006 plan recognized that the city could add 57,000 households with no gain in population. By incorporating the age forecast with the long-term population forecast in Table 2.2, household size is anticipated to increase from 2.11 to 2.27 from 2015 to 2045. However, this increase will occur only if the District retains its families, keeping both young professionals in the city as they form families, as well as single- or elder-parent led households, and provides a healthy environment for all families in its neighborhoods. Indeed, from 1990 to 2000, the number of families with children in the District declined by 11,000, with an attendant drop in citywide household size.

217.13 Related factors affecting population forecasts are housing costs, immigration, the Comprehensive Plan

cost of day care, and K-12 school quality. Higher housing costs have already caused families to "double up" in some parts of the city or leave the city for less expensive housing. It may result in adult children returning home or living at home longer. Immigration also may drive increases in household size, as it has in New York, San Francisco, and other gateway cities. Improvement in the District's public schools and the shift toward universal pre-school has made the city a more attractive place for families with young children.

217.14 Unlike the 2006 household and population forecasts, which suggested that the District of Columbia would capture ten percent of the region's growth during 2005-2025, the Plan now expects the District to gain an increasing share of the region's population. By 2045, the District will represent as much as 14 percent of the region's population.

217.15 Employment Growth.

217.16 Employment forecasts track new capacity in proposed development and estimate the number of jobs each project could contain. The 2010 baseline estimates build on monthly data reported from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Info USA, the District Department of Employment Services, and other sources, with adjustments for self-employment and military personnel. The forecasts from 2015 to 2030 are largely based on actual projects under construction in the city, as well as office, retail, hotel, industrial, and institutional development that is currently planned and in conceptual stages. These estimates are then compared to forecasts made by the District Department of Employment Services and other sources.

217.17 Beyond 2030, the projections presume a continuation of 2010-2020 trends, but at a slowing rate. Continued growth in the professional, health, and education sectors is expected, as is growth in the eating- and drinking-establishment sector, as the District's population increases. Between 2010 and 2045, the District is expected to add 300,000 new jobs, bringing the citywide total to over a million jobs.

217.18 The employment forecasts suggest that the District of Columbia will capture 22 percent of the region's job growth during 2010-2045. By 2045, the District will have essentially retained its share of the region's jobs, as it drops slightly from 25 to 24 percent, a significantly higher share than forecast in 2005.

217.19 Translating the Forecasts into Demand for Land

217.20 How much land does it take to accommodate 145,000 housing units and 300,000 jobs? The answer depends on the density of new development. Other factors, such as the size of housing units, the types of jobs being created, and the amount of land set aside for parking and open space also weigh in. The accompanying diagr

am shows three scenarios.

DENSITY SCENARIO

Scenario 1

1. Single Family Homes
2. One-story Office

Scenario 2

1. Row Houses
2. Five-story Office

Scenario 3

1. Apartment Homes
2. Ten-story Office

LAND CONSUMPTION

13,000 Acres

3,000 Acres

< 1,000 Acres

217.21 The first illustrates the land that would be required for single family homes (at six units per acre) and one-story campus-style office buildings. About 33,000 acres would be necessary. The second scenario shows land requirements for housing built at row-house densities (25 units per acre), with the jobs housed in five-story office buildings. About 7,000 acres would be required. The third scenario shows land requirements for housing built at apartment densities of about 125 units per acre, with the jobs housed in ten-story office buildings. Land consumption drops to under 2,000 acres.

217.22 Of course, the diagram simplifies the actual dynamics of how land is used and developed. It also leaves out land that must be set aside for parks, public facilities, and infrastructure. The District expects some combination of high-, medium-, and low-density development during the next 30 years. However, high land costs and the scarcity of land in the city make denser development more likely and even appropriate.

217.23 Growth by Planning Area

217.24 Tables 2.3 and 2.4 show where household and job growth is expected to take place within the city through 2045. The estimates reflect the location of planned development projects, vacant and underutilized sites, and Comprehensive Plan land-use designations and policies.

217.25 Table 2.3: Projected Distribution of Household Growth by Planning Area

Planning Area	2015 Employment	2045 Projected Employment	Net Increase	% of District's Total Growth
CAPITOL HILL	25,082	33,387	8,305	7.2%
CENTRAL WASHINGTON	13,970	23,986	10,016	8.7%
FAR NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST	33,802	45,933	12,131	10.6%
FAR SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST	26,592	36,681	10,089	8.8%
LOWER ANACOSTIA WATERFRONT AND NEAR SOUTHWEST	11,954	33,915	21,961	19.1%
MID-CITY	42,442	52,466	10,024	8.7%
NEAR NORTHWEST	42,237	48,551	6,314	5.5%
ROCK CREEK EAST	29,064	37,638	8,574	7.5%
ROCK CREEK WEST	44,033	48,814	4,781	4.2%
UPPER NORTHEAST	27,936	50,501	22,565	19.7%
CITYWIDE	297,112	411,872	114,760	100.0%

217.26 Table 2.4: Projected Distribution of Job Growth by Planning Area

Planning Area	2015 Employment	2045 Projected Employment	Net Increase	% of District's Total Growth
CAPITOL HILL	24,107	37,207	13,100	5.3%
CENTRAL WASHINGTON	469,636	567,025	97,389	39.4%
FAR NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST	7,575	19,698	12,123	4.9%
FAR SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST	15,156	37,158	22,002	8.9%
LOWER ANACOSTIA WATERFRONT AND NEAR SOUTHWEST	49,511	92,314	42,803	17.3%
MID-CITY	30,116	37,517	7,401	3.0%
NEAR NORTHWEST	88,950	101,257	12,307	5.0%
ROCK CREEK EAST	35,141	44,924	9,783	4.0%
ROCK CREEK WEST	48,684	55,444	6,760	2.7%
UPPER NORTHEAST	29,395	52,846	23,451	9.5%
CITYWIDE	798,271	1,045,390	247,119	100.0%

217.27 The tables indicate that about 28 percent of the city's future household growth will occur in Central Washington and along the Lower Anacostia Waterfront. This reflects current and expected development in and around Downtown, the North of Massachusetts Avenue (NoMA) area, the Southwest Waterfront, the Near Southeast, and on large sites such as Poplar Point. Other areas east of the Anacostia River represent about 18 percent of the projected total. The Mid-City and Near Northwest areas also represent a combined total of 14.2 percent, with most of the gain expected east of 14th Street N.W., especially around Howard University, Columbia Heights, and Shaw. The biggest shift since the 2006 forecast is that the Upper Northeast area is now expected to accommodate 19.7 percent of the District's household growth. This is a result of major land use changes around Union Market, McMillan Reservoir, Rhode Island Avenue Metro station, and the large number of vacant and underutilized properties in the Upper Northeast area. Additional data and guidance for each of these areas is provided in the Area Elements of the Comprehensive Plan.

217.28 Employment growth will continue to be concentrated in Central Washington and along the Anacostia River. These two areas were expected to absorb three-quarters of the city's job growth by 2025, principally in places like the South Capitol Street Corridor, the Southeast Federal Center, and the New York Avenue Metro Station area. The updated forecast suggests that job growth will be slightly more distributed. Central Washington and the Anacostia River Waterfront areas are now expected to absorb 57 percent of job growth. Upper Northeast, especially along the New York Avenue corridor, is now expected to absorb about ten percent of the city's job growth. Another 14 percent is expected east of the Anacostia River on

sites such as St. Elizabeths and the Minnesota Avenue Metro Station Area. The remaining six planning areas represent less than 20 percent of the city's job growth, most associated with institutional uses and infill office and retail development along corridor streets.

217.29 As time unfolds, departures from the District's forecasts are likely. Future amendments to the Comprehensive Plan may be considered in response to changing trends, new projections, and shifting expectations for the future.

SOURCE: District of Columbia Comprehensive Plan Act of 1984, effective April 10, 1984 (D.C. Law 5-76; 31 DCR 1049 (March 9, 1984)); as amended by District of Columbia Comprehensive Plan Act of 1984 Land Use Element Amendment Act of 1984, effective March 16, 1985 (D.C. Law 5-187; 32 DCR 873 (February 15, 1985)); as amended by District of Columbia Comprehensive Plan Amendments Act of 1989, effective May 23, 1990 (D.C. Law 8-129; 37 DCR 55 (January 5, 1990)); as amended by District of Columbia Comprehensive Plan Amendments Act of 1989 NCPC-Recommended Amendments, and Closing of Public Alleys in Square 669, S.O. 88-452, Act of 1990, effective May 23, 1990 (D.C. Law 8-132; 37 DCR 2213 (April 6, 1990)); as amended by District Government Land Use Temporary Amendment Act of 1994, effective October 1, 1994 (D.C. Law 10-190; 41 DCR 5360 (August 12, 1994)); as amended by Comprehensive Plan Amendments Act of 1994, effective October 6, 1994 (D.C. Law 10-193; 41 DCR 5536 (August 19, 1994)); as amended by District of Columbia Comprehensive Plan Act of 1984 Land Use Amendment Act of 1994, effective March 21, 1995 (D.C. Law 10-235; 42 DCR 30 (January 6, 1995)); as amended by Technical Amendments Act of 1996, effective April 18, 1996 (D.C. Law 11-110; 43 DCR 530 (February 9, 1996)); as amended by Second Technical Amendments Act of 1996, effective April 9, 1997 (D.C. Law 11-255; 44 DCR 1271 (March 7, 1997)); as amended by Comprehensive Plan Amendment Act of 1998, effective April 27, 1999 (D.C. Law 12-275; 46 DCR 1441 (February 19, 1999)); as amended by Technical Amendments Act of 1999, effective April 12, 2000 (D.C. Law 13-91; 47 DCR 520 (January 28, 2000)); as amended by Comprehensive Plan Amendment Act of 2006, effective March 8, 2007 (D.C. Law 16-300; 54 DCR 924 (February 2, 2007)); as amended by Technical Amendments Act of 2008, effective March 25, 2009 (D.C. Law 17-353; 56 DCR 1117 (February 6, 2009)); as amended by Comprehensive Plan Amendment Act of 2010, effective April 8, 2011 (D.C. Law 18-361; 58 DCR 908 (February 4, 2011)); as amended by Comprehensive Plan Framework Amendment Act of 2019, effective August 27, 2020 (D.C. Law 23-127; 67 DCR 001360 (February 14, 2020)).