D.C. Mun. Regs. tit. 10-A, § 216

The Cooperative Forecasts

Effective Aug 27, 2020Authority: Comprehensive Plan Framework Amendment Act of 2019, effective August 27, 2020 (D.C. Law 23-127; 67 DCR 001360 (February 14, 2020)). Source: District of Columbia Comprehensive Plan Act of 1984, effective April 10, 1984 (D.C. Law 5-76; 31 DCR 1049 (March 9, 1984)); as amended by District of Columbia Comprehensive Plan Act of 1984 Land Use Element Amendment Act of 1984, effective March 16, 1985 (D.C. Law 5-187; 32 DCR 873 (February 15, 1985)); as amended by District of Columbia Comprehensive Plan Amendments Act of 1989, effective May 23, 1990 (D.C. Law 8-129; 37 DCR 55 (January 5, 1990)); as amended by District of Columbia Comprehensive Plan Amendments Act of 1989 NCPC-Recommended Amendments, and Closing of Public Alleys in Square 669, S.O. 88-452, Act of 1990, effective May 23, 1990 (D.C. Law 8-132; 37 DCR 2213 (April 6, 1990)); as amended by District Government Land Use Temporary Amendment Act of 1994, effective October 1, 1994 (D.C. Law 10-190; 41 DCR 5360 (August 12, 1994)); as amended by Comprehensive Plan Amendments Act of 1994, effective October 6, 1994 (D.C. Law 10-193; 41 DCR 5536 (August 19, 1994)); as amended by District of Columbia Comprehensive Plan Act of 1984 Land Use Amendment Act of 1994, effective March 21, 1995 (D.C. Law 10-235; 42 DCR 30 (January 6, 1995)); as amended by Technical Amendments Act of 1996, effective April 18, 1996 (D.C. Law 11-110; 43 DCR 530 (February 9, 1996)); as amended by Second Technical Amendments Act of 1996, effective April 9, 1997 (D.C. Law 11-255; 44 DCR 1271 (March 7, 1997)); as amended by Comprehensive Plan Amendment Act of 1998, effective April 27, 1999 (D.C. Law 12-275; 46 DCR 1441 (February 19, 1999)); as amended by Technical Amendments Act of 1999, effective April 12, 2000 (D.C. Law 13-91; 47 DCR 520 (January 28, 2000)); as amended by Comprehensive Plan Amendment Act of 2006, effective March 8, 2007 (D.C. Law 16-300; 54 DCR 924 (February 2, 2007)); as amended by Technical Amendments Act of 2008, effective March 25, 2009 (D.C. Law 17-353; 56 DCR 1117 (February 6, 2009)); as amended by Comprehensive Plan Amendment Act of 2010, effective April 8, 2011 (D.C. Law 18-361; 58 DCR 908 (February 4, 2011)); as amended by Comprehensive Plan Framework Amendment Act of 2019, effective August 27, 2020 (D.C. Law 23-127; 67 DCR 001360 (February 14, 2020)).District of Columbia, Office of the Secretary

216.1 The Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments (MWCOG) coordinates socio-economic projections for the Washington region. These projections include households, population, and jobs and are expressed in five-year intervals, currently to 2045. Projections are made for the region as a whole and for each of its 23 jurisdictions. They take into account national economic trends, local demographics, and the local plans and policies of the region's cities and counties. As part of this effort, the District develops a jurisdiction-level forecast and works with MWCOG to reconcile and balance the forecast with other jurisdictions.

216.2 At the regional level, the projections have been relatively accurate since the forecasting program began in 1975. Actual growth during the last 40 years has tracked closely with what the forecasts predicted.

216.3 In 2016, the MWCOG board approved projections showing the region would add 1.4 million jobs between 2015 and 2045. The projections further show an addition of 640,000 households and 1.5 million residents during this time period. About 29 percent of this growth is expected to occur in "outer" suburbs such as Loudoun, Frederick, and Prince William Counties, a significant decrease from the 43 percent share that was forecasted in 2005. The "inner" suburbs of Fairfax, Montgomery, and Prince George's Counties are expected to maintain their share of growth at about 41 percent. The most significant change between the 2006 and 2015 MWCOG forecast is the share of growth in the central jurisdictions of the District, Arlington County, and Alexandria, which has doubled from 15 to 30 percent. The shift in growth from the outer suburbs to the region's core is healthy land use.

216.4 Figure 2.10 indicates the location of regional activity centers in the Washington Metropolitan Area. Updated centers were identified cooperatively by jurisdictions in the MWCOG area in 2012. They are intended to provide an organizing framework for directing regional job and housing growth, as articulated in Region Forward, MWCOG's planning compact. This compact sets goals to guide growth toward the centers, including 75 percent of commercial construction and 50 percent of new households. As Figure 2.10 indicates, some of the clusters are more than 40 miles from the District and are larger in land area than all of Central Washington. Since 2006, progress has been made toward these goals. MWCOG estimates that 76 percent of job growth and 65 percent of household growth will occur in the centers. This suggests that urban sprawl and related congestion can be minimized. Expanded coordination in land use and transportation planning among the region's cities and counties will be essential to keep the region sustainable.

216.5 Figure 2.10: Regional Activity Clusters

SOURCE: District of Columbia Comprehensive Plan Act of 1984, effective April 10, 1984 (D.C. Law 5-76; 31 DCR

1049 (March 9, 1984)); as amended by District of Columbia Comprehensive Plan Act of 1984 Land Use Element Amendment Act of 1984, effective March 16, 1985 (D.C. Law 5-187; 32 DCR 873 (February 15, 1985)); as amended by District of Columbia Comprehensive Plan Amendments Act of 1989, effective May 23, 1990 (D.C. Law 8-129; 37 DCR 55 (January 5, 1990)); as amended by District of Columbia Comprehensive Plan Amendments Act of 1989 NCPC-Recommended Amendments, and Closing of Public Alleys in Square 669, S.O. 88-452, Act of 1990, effective May 23, 1990 (D.C. Law 8-132; 37 DCR 2213 (April 6, 1990)); as amended by District Government Land Use Temporary Amendment Act of 1994, effective October 1, 1994 (D.C. Law 10-190; 41 DCR 5360 (August 12, 1994)); as amended by Comprehensive Plan Amendments Act of 1994, effective October 6, 1994 (D.C. Law 10-193; 41 DCR 5536 (August 19, 1994)); as amended by District of Columbia Comprehensive Plan Act of 1984 Land Use Amendment Act of 1994, effective March 21, 1995 (D.C. Law 10-235; 42 DCR 30 (January 6, 1995)); as amended by Technical Amendments Act of 1996 effective April 18, 1996 (D.C. Law 11-110; 43 DCR 530 (February 9, 1996)); as amended by Second Technical Amendments Act of 1996 effective April 9, 1997 (D.C. Law 11-255; 44 DCR 1271 (March 7, 1997)); as amended by Comprehensive Plan Amendment Act of 1998, effective April 27, 1999 (D.C. Law 12-275; 46 DCR 1441 (February 19, 1999)); as amended by Technical Amendments Act of 1999, effective April 12, 2000 (D.C. Law 13-91; 47 DCR 520 (January 28, 2000)); as amended by Comprehensive Plan Amendment Act of 2006, effective March 8, 2007 (D.C. Law 16-300; 54 DCR 924 (February 2, 2007)); as amended by Technical Amendments Act of 2008, effective March 25, 2009 (D.C. Law 17-353; 56 DCR 1117 (February 6, 2009)); as amended by Comprehensive Plan Amendment Act of 2010, effective April 8, 2011 (D.C. Law 18-361; 58 DCR 908 (February 4, 2011)); as amended by Comprehensive Plan Framework Amendment Act of 2019, effective August 27, 2020 (D.C. Law 23-127; 67 DCR 001360 (February 14, 2020)).