203.1 The District is an attractive place to live and work, as evidenced by recent population growth. Since 2006, the District grew by over 123,000 (21.6 percent) to an estimated population of 693,972 in 2017. This growth sharply contrasts with the loss of population that marked the decades from 1950 to 2000, when Washington went from a peak of 802,000 residents to 572,000. The current trend, if sustained, puts the District on track to bypass the 1950s peak within two decades. The main drivers of this increase are natural increase (births minus deaths), and international and domestic migration.

203.2 Nine to ten percent of the population moves into, or out of, the city each year. The District has successfully sought to attract and retain both domestic and international residents. Domestic migration has shifted from negative to positive, with 2,000 people added annually since 2009. The city has also added an average of 3,000 net new international residents each year since 2006.

203.3 The largest component (77 percent) of in-migration from 2006 to 2017 consisted of young adults who tended to be white and college educated. These new residents shifted the demographic makeup in many neighborhoods in several ways. They held higher-wage jobs than many existing residents, and their incomes grew faster. These new residents also stayed in the District and started families. In 2006, married couples made up only 22 percent of households; since then, married couples represent almost half of the District's 31,000 new households. While fertility rates are down, including for single and teen mothers, the increase in married couples has resulted in a mini-baby boom, with the number of average births per year increasing from 7,700 in the early 2000s to over 9,500 in 2017.

203.4 Since 2006, recent migration patterns indicate the city has lost existing residents in certain types of households, including parents with children and blacks, although the overall population of Washington, DC is growing. Prince George's and Montgomery Counties in Maryland are, in order, the two largest destinations for those leaving the city.

203.5 Previous population decline, and now growth, has affected different parts of the city in different ways. Figure 2.1 illustrates changes in population by neighborhood cluster from 1980-2000 and 2000-2015. Between 1980-2000, the vast majority of population decline occurred east of 16th Street - areas east of the Anacostia River lost 44,000 residents - while many areas west of Rock Creek Park actually gained residents. As middle-income households moved away, poorer residents stayed behind, leaving the District with the largest concentration of poverty in the region and a sharper divide between rich and poor. This also resulted in a greater concentration of people with special needs, and places of disinvestment, with concomitant challenges in many communities.

203.6 Much of the population growth between 2000 and 2017 concentrated in central Washington neighborhoods, particularly those hit hard by the 1968 riots. The riots and their aftermath resulted in vacant and underutilized land in what subsequently became a desirable, central location. Accelerating demand to live in these neighborhoods has resulted in increased housing costs that threaten the ability of existing lower income households to remain.

203.7 Figure 2.1: Population Change by Neighborhood Cluster, 1980-2000 and 2000-2017

Figure 2.1:

Population Change by Neighborhood Cluster, 1980-2000^203.3

Clusters that lost population, 1980-2000

Clusters that lost >15% of their population, 1980-2000

Source: OP, 2002

203.8 Figure 2.2 illustrates changes to population in the District by race, over time. Unlike the experience of other major cities, the loss of population in Washington was not solely attributable to 'white flight.' In fact, between 1980 and 2000, black residents registered the largest decrease among the city's racial groups, dropping in population by almost 100,000, and this trend continued through 2010, with an additional decline of 38,000 to 310,379. While some black residents left the District for family ties and increased opportunities, the rising costs of living, especially housing costs, became a significant factor. Since 2010, the black population has stabilized and started to grow again, and now represents 46 percent of the total population. Compared to the rest of the District, the current black population is both younger (under 18) and older (over 64). Challenges persist, with black households, including single female household heads, on average earning 68 percent less than white households. While forecasted to increase numerically, the city's black population will remain below 50 percent of total population through 2025. 203.8

203.9 There have been steady increases in Hispanic and Asian populations in recent decades. Growth of Hispanic residents started in the 1980's with foreign migration primarily from countries like El Salvador. This has subsequently shifted to migration primarily from Mexico and Puerto Rico, along with net natural increases from residents. 203.9

203.10 Figure 2.2 Population of D.C. by Race: 1890-2010

203.11 While population loss after 1950 was significant, the decline in the number of households was much less dramatic. The number of households in the District declined by just 2 percent between 1980 and 2000, standing at 248,000 in 2000. Thus, population loss in the late 1900s was less a function of housing being abandoned and more a result of larger households being replaced by smaller households. In fact, the average household in Washington contained 2.16 persons in 2000, down from 2.72 in 1970. Middle-class families left the city in large numbers during this period and the number of school-aged children dropped dramatically. 203.11

203.12 The 2006 Plan accurately predicted household size falling through 2010, and then stabilizing. According to the US Census, the percentage of older residents is expected to increase as "baby-boomers" retire, and the percentage of foreign-born residents, particularly those of Hispanic origin, is expected to rise. The District is expected to continue to be a magnet for the region's young professionals and empty nesters. Its ability to attract and retain young households and families with children rests largely on improving the quality of public education and addressing basic issues like crime, provision of services, inventory of, family-sized housing stock, and housing affordability. 203.12

SOURCE: District of Columbia Comprehensive Plan Act of 1984, effective April 10, 1984 (D.C. Law 5-76; 31 DCR 1049 (March 9, 1984)); as amended by District of Columbia Comprehensive Plan Act of 1984 Land Use Element Amendment Act of 1984, effective March 16, 1985 (D.C. Law 5-187; 32 DCR 873 (February 15, 1985)); as amended by District of Columbia Comprehensive Plan Amendments Act of 1989, effective May 23, 1990 (D.C. Law 8-129; 37 DCR 55 (January 5, 1990)); as amended by District of Columbia Comprehensive Plan Amendments Act of 1989 NCPC-Recommended Amendments, and Closing of Public Alleys in Square 669, S.O. 88-452, Act of 1990, effective May 23, 1990 (D.C. Law 8-132; 37 DCR 2213 (April 6, 1990)); as amended by District Government Land Use Temporary Amendment Act of 1994, effective October 1, 1994 (D.C. Law 10-190; 41 DCR 5360 (August 12, 1994)); as amended by Comprehensive Plan Amendments Act of 1994, effective October 6, 1994 (D.C. Law 10-193; 41 DCR 5536 (August 19, 1994)); as amended by District of Columbia Comprehensive Plan Act of 1984 Land Use Amendment Act of 1994, effective March 21, 1995 (D.C. Law 10-235; 42 DCR 30 (January 6, 1995)); as amended by Technical Amendments Act of 1996 effective April 18, 1996 (D.C. Law 11-110; 43 DCR 530 (February 9, 1996)); as amended by Second Technical Amendments Act of 1996 effective April 9, 1997 (D.C. Law 11-255; 44 DCR 1271 (March 7, 1997)); as amended by Comprehensive Plan Amendment Act of 1998, effective April 27, 1999 (D.C. Law 12-275; 46 DCR 1441 (February 19, 1999)); as amended by Technical Amendments Act of 1999, effective April 12, 2000 (D.C. Law 13-91; 47 DCR 520 (January 28, 2000)); as amended by Comprehensive Plan Amendment Act of 2006, effective March 8, 2007 (D.C. Law 16-300; 54 DCR 924 (February 2, 2007)); as amended by Technical Amendments Act of 2008, effective March 25, 2009 (D.C. Law 17-353; 56 DCR 1117 (February 6, 2009)); as amended by Comprehensive Plan Amendment Act of 2010, effective April 8, 2011 (D.C. Law 18-361; 58 DCR 908 (February 4, 2011)); as amended by Comprehensive Plan Framework Amendment Act of 2019, effective August 27, 2020 (D.C. Law 23-127; 67 DCR 001360 (February 14, 2020)).