As an alternative to the method provided in OAR 660-038-0100, to forecast 14-year employment growth based on the most recent long-term job forecast issued by the Oregon Employment Department (OED), a city must:

1. (1) Determine the number of “commercial” and “industrial” jobs currently in the UGB as provided in Table 3.
2. (2) Using Table 4, determine the long-term growth rates forecast by OED for commercial jobs and for industrial jobs in the OED region that includes the city. For purposes of this rule, “OED region” means Workforce Innovation and Opportunity Act (WIOA) Areas for which OED forecasts long-term job growth.

3. (3) To forecast the number of new commercial and new industrial jobs anticipated to occur in the UGB for the 14-year planning period, the city must:

   1. (a) Multiply the number of commercial jobs currently in the UGB determined in section (1) by the forecast rate of growth determined in section (2), and
   2. (b) Multiply the number of industrial jobs currently in the UGB determined in section (1) by the forecast rate of growth determined in section (2).
4. (4) To account for jobs that are likely to occur on land that is zoned for uses other than commercial or industrial (and which therefore will not require buildable “employment land”), the city must reduce the forecast of new commercial and industrial jobs determined in subsections (3)(a) and (3)(b) by 20 percent.

5. (5) The result is the number of new commercial and industrial jobs forecast for the 14-year planning period to be accommodated on employment lands in the UGB. The city must use this result or the result in OAR 660-038-0100 as a basis for determining employment land needs under OAR 660-038-0140.

   [ED. NOTE: To view attachments referenced in rule text, click here for PDF copy.]

Statutory/Other Authority

ORS 197.040, ORS 197.235, ORS 197A.284 & ORS 197A.305

Statutes/Other Implemented

ORS 197A.285, ORS 197A.300, ORS 197A.302, ORS 197A.305, ORS 197A.310, ORS 197A.312, ORS 197A.315 & ORS 197A.325

History

LCDD 2-2025, amend filed 07/07/2025, effective 07/07/2025
LCDD 3-2024, amend filed 07/11/2024, effective 07/11/2024
LCDD 8-2023, amend filed 08/07/2023, effective 08/07/2023
LCDD 4-2023, amend filed 05/10/2023, effective 05/10/2023
LCDD 7-2020, amend filed 06/22/2020, effective 07/03/2020
LCDD 1-2019, amend filed 01/28/2019, effective 02/05/2019
LCDD 6-2015, f. 12-29-15, cert. ef. 1-1-16