Petitioner Xiao Kui Lin, a citizen of China, seeks review of the October 17, 2005 decision of the Board of Immigration Appeals (“BIA”) adopting and affirming the May 26, 2004 decision of Immigration Judge (“IJ”) Robert Weisel denying Lin’s applications for asylum and withholding of removal. In re Xiao Kui Lin, No. A 72 473 382 (B.I.A. Oct. 17, 2005), aff'g No. A 72 473 382 (Immig. Ct. N.Y. City May 26, 2004). Because we find errors in the BIA’s order and cannot predict with confidence that the BIA would reach the same *219 result on remand absent these errors, we are compelled to grant the petition, vacate the October 17, 2005 order, and remand the matter to the BIA.
Background
Lin hails from the city of Fouzhou in the Fujian Province of China. He entered the United States unlawfully in 1992 and unsuccessfully applied for asylum based on an alleged fear that he would be persecuted for his political activism if he returned to his home country. Though he was ordered to be deported in 1994, Lin remained in the United States, and in 2002 moved for a stay of removal and to reopen asylum proceedings based on changed personal circumstances, namely his marriage and the birth of a daughter. In an amended asylum application, Lin averred that he and his wife intended to have another child, but that if they returned to China and attempted to have a second child there, the pregnancy either would be aborted forcibly, or Lin or his wife would be forced to undergo a sterilization procedure. The motions to reopen and for a stay of removal were granted, and the IJ held a hearing on Lin’s amended asylum application on May 26, 2004.
Lin testified at the hearing that he was married on October 2, 2000, in New Bed-ford, Massachusetts, and that he now had two U.S.-born daughters, the first born on March 27, 2001, and the second on May 17, 2003, subsequent to the filing of his amended asylum application. His wife was present at the hearing with both children, but did not testify. Lin submitted his daughters’ birth certificates and his Massachusetts marriage certificate indicating that he had married on September 24, 2000, and that the marriage certificate had been issued and recorded on October 2, 2000.
Lin testified that he and his wife intended to have another child, and that they hoped to have a boy to carry on the family name. He reiterated his fear, however, that he and his wife would be arrested and sterilized forcibly for having violated family planning policies if they were to return to China. Lin testified that his mother had been sterilized forcibly in China after the birth of his younger brother, that his sister-in-law had been sterilized as well, and that his sister had been fined for violating a Fujian Province family-planning policy. In an attempt to corroborate these claims, Lin offered: (1) a Birth Control Operation Certificate reflecting that his mother had been sterilized in 1979; (2) a certification from the Committee of Min An Village that his mother had violated the birth control policy of Fujian Province by having three children and that the “Village Committee took her to undergo a female sterilization procedure,” App. 129; (3) affidavits from his mother and her sister-in-law stating that after Lin’s mother gave birth to her third child, she was arrested and forced to undergo involuntary sterilization; (4) a receipt reflecting that his sister had paid a fine in 1998 “for missing a female examination,” App. 126; and (5) the Family Planning Stipulations for Fuji-an Province.
The IJ denied the applications for asylum and withholding of removal on the ground that Lin had failed to establish that if he returned to China, he would be found in violation of a family planning policy and therefore sterilized forcibly. The IJ expressed doubt that Lin “will ever return to China as part of an intact family” because “[n]o testimony was offered today by [Lin] that if he returns to China, he will return with his wife ... [o]r for that matter, that his children will return with him.” App. 38. The IJ went on to “question! ] the closeness of [Lin’s] relationship [with his wife], and whether they even live togeth *220 er,” pointing to the fact that the marriage certificate and Lin’s asylum application indicated that Lin was married on September 24, 2000, whereas Lin testified that he had married on October 2, 2000. App. 39.
The BIA affirmed the IJ’s decision on October 17, 2005. It concluded that Lin had not established a well-founded fear of persecution “based upon the birth of his United States citizen children” because “[tjhere is no national policy to sterilize Chinese citizens who have broken the population control law by virtue of having children in other countries.” App. 2. The BIA stated that, in any event, “[i]t is unclear whether [Lin’s] United States citizen children will actually return to China with him,” and “[tjhere is also insufficient documentary evidence of record to convince the Board that there is any likelihood that [Lin] will be sterilized by the Chinese authorities.” Id.
Lin now petitions for review of the BIA’s October 17, 2005 order.
Discussion
“Where, as here, the BIA adopts the IJ’s reasoning and offers additional commentary, we review the decision of the IJ as supplemented by the BIA.”
Wala v. Mukasey,
Asylum is available to an individual who establishes that he is a “refugee,” 8 U.S.C. § 1158(b)(1);
Xu Sheng Gao v. U.S. Attorney Gen.,
The BIA gave three reasons for denying Lin’s applications for asylum and withholding of removal, none of which withstands scrutiny. The finding that Lin failed to show that he would return to China with his wife and children and thus come within the ambit of a forcible sterilization policy, assuming one existed, was not supported by substantial evidence. Lin appeared at his hearing with his wife and children and testified that both he and his wife were “thinking of possibly having another child” to “continue our family name.” App. 82. When asked what he believed would happen if he were forced to return to China, Lin stated that “we will be arrested [and] sterilized.” Id. (emphasis added). Lin did not state specifically that he intended to take his children to China if he returned, and his wife did not *221 testify at the hearing. But the record on which the agency based its finding that Lin would return to China alone was plainly inadequate.
In “questioning] the closeness of [Lin’s] relationship” with his wife, App. 38, the IJ relied solely on the fact that Lin testified that he was married on October 2, 2000, while his marriage certificate and asylum application indicated that the actual date of his wedding ceremony was September 24, 2000. The IJ concluded that “[n]o explanation for this anomaly exists.” App. 39. But the marriage certificate shows that October 2, 2000 was the date the certificate was recorded by the New Bedford town clerk. The IJ failed to address why it would be unreasonable for Lin to believe that the date on which his marriage certificate was filed with a governmental agency was the date on which he officially became married. Hence, the IJ overlooked a plausible explanation for Lin’s confusion that was apparent in the record evidence that the IJ relied upon to conclude that no such explanation existed.
See Latifi v. Gonzales,
Another of the BIA’s reasons for denying asylum was that, even if Lin were to return with his children, he was unlikely to be persecuted because China has no national policy of forcibly sterilizing those who have broken the population control laws by having children in other countries. This finding was made not by the IJ in the first place, but by the BIA on appeal. The agency’s own regulations, however, prohibit the BIA from engaging in fact-finding “in the course of deciding appeals,” except insofar as it takes “administrative notice of commonly known facts such as current events or the contents of official documents.” 8 C.F.R. § 1003. 1(d)(3)(iv);
see Burger v. Gonzales,
The BIA’s final reason for denying relief was that Lin submitted “insufficient documentary evidence ... that there is any likelihood that [he] will be sterilized by the Chinese authorities” for having more than one U.S.-born child. App. 2. The problem with this finding is that, while it perhaps was supported by the record, we have no way to discern the extent to which it was based on an assessment of the record distinct from the flawed reasoning discussed above. The only specific reference the BIA makes to Lin’s individual circumstances is in the preceding sentence: “It is unclear whether the United States citizen children will actually return to China with the respondent.”
Id.
This statement is infected with the same incorrect perception of the record that undermined the I J’s assessment of Lin’s relationship with his family.
See Tian-Yong Chen,
Although the agency offered no valid reason for denying asylum or withholding of removal, we need not remand if doing so would be futile, that is, if we can predict with confidence that the agency would reach the same result even absent these errors.
See, e.g., Biao Yang v. Gonzales,
Decisions rendered subsequent to the BIA opinion at issue in this appeal inform our analysis of how the BIA might hypothetically decide this case on remand. In 2006, we noted in
Shou Yung Guo v. Gonzales
the existence of documents that might support the finding that the Fujian Province has a forcible sterilization policy.
4
*223
It is reasonable to predict that, if we were to remand the present case, the BIA might again reject Lin’s application by reiterating its determination that China has no national policy of forcibly sterilizing those with more than one child and by citing
J-H-S-, J-W-S-,
and
S-Y-G
to support this proposition. However, the BIA’s decisions in these cases do not clearly resolve the futility of remand issue presented here. One can infer from the agency’s reasoning in
J-H-S-, J-W-S-,
and S
Y-G
that the documents - submitted in those cases were not enough by themselves to establish a well-founded fear of “forced” sterilization pursuant to the definition of “refugee” found in 8 U.S.C. § 1101(a)(42).
See Jian Hui Shao,
the quéstion whether the birth of two children in China gives rise to a well-founded fear of persecution depends on the facts of each case, including, in particular, the details of local family planning policies, proof that an alien violated such policies, and evidence that local enforcement efforts against the violation will rise to the level of persecution. Evidence bearing on all of these factors *224 must, taken together, establish that a reasonable person in the respondent’s circumstances would fear persecution if he returned to his home country.
24 I. & N. Dec. at 201;
see also S-Y-G-,
24 I. & N. Dec. at 251 (emphasizing need for “case-by-case analysis” of applications for asylum based on alien’s alleged violation of “family planning policy as established in that alien’s local province, municipality, or other relevant area” (citing
J-H-S-,
24 I.
&
N. Dec. 196)). This construction of 8 U.S.C. § 1101(a)(42), “which rejects a categorical application of the ‘well-founded fear’ provision to such claims in favor of case-by-case review,” earned
Chevron
deference in our decision in
Jian Hui Shao v. Mukasey,
With respect to the futility analysis applicable in asylum cases such as these, we recognize that the reasoning in J-H-S-, J-W-S-, and S-Y-G could in many circumstances support a prediction that the BIA would reject an asylum applicant presenting evidence sufficiently similar to that analyzed in these three precedential cases. The problem with making such a prediction in Lin’s case, however, is that none of the agency’s analysis of Lin’s application survives review by this Court.
The IJ’s errant finding concerning the likelihood of Lin returning to China with his children was the only ground that the IJ offered for rejecting Lin’s asylum application- — a conclusion that undercuts this Court’s ability confidently to predict that remand would be futile in this case.
See Niang,
Conclusion
We grant the petition for review, vacate the BIA’s October 17, 2005 order, and remand the matter to the BIA for further proceedings, including proceedings before the IJ if appropriate for the development of additional facts.
Notes
. Portions of the IJ’s analysis of Lin's relationship with his wife and children may be read to raise other legal issues, including (i) whether the IJ could legitimately require Lin to affirmatively prove his intent to take his children with him to China should he be deported; and (ii) whether an alien who can avoid persecution by leaving his or her children in the United States is thereby rendered ineligible for asylum.
Cf., e.g., Abay v. Ashcroft,
. Specifically, the record in
Shou Yung Guo
included the following three documents: (1) Changle City Family-Planning Admin., Administrative Opinion on Sanctions Against Family-Planning Violations by Zheng Yu He and his Spouse (May 22, 2003); (2) Fujian Province Dep't of Family-Planning Admin., Administrative Decision on Request for Directive from Fuzhou City Administration on Family-Planning in Connection with Birth of a Second Child by Zheng Yu He of Changle City Municipal Bureau of Construction and his Spouse in USA (2003); and (3) Changle City Family-Planning Admin., Q & A for Changle City Family-Planning Information Handbook (July 1999).
See generally
App. to Appellee’s Letter Br., Mar. 4, 2008 (reprinting these documents). The record in this case does not include these documents; nor does it contain any versions of two State Department publications that have figured prominently in BIA asylum decisions analyzing China’s one-child policy: China: Profile of Asylum Claims
*223
and Country Conditions and the China chapter of the Country Reports on Human Rights Practices.
See generally In re S-Y-G-,
24 I. & N. Dec. 247, 253 n. 2, 255-57 (B.I.A.2007);
In re J-H-S-
24 I. & N. Dec. 196, 198-203 (B.I.A. 2007);
In re J-W-S-
24 I. & N. Dec. 185, 186 n. 1, 188 n. 4, 189-94 & nn.5, 8-9 (B.I.A. 2007). However, Lin has expressed his intention on remand to offer the
Shou Yung Guo
documents listed above, among others, on a motion to reopen the evidentiary record before the BIA.
See
Appellant's Letter Br. 5, Mar. 21, 2008. Moreover, the BIA has the power to take administrative notice of official reports such as those from the State Department.
See
8 C.F.R. § 1003.1(d)(3)(iv);
see also Qun Yang v. McElroy,
. While the denial of the motion to reopen in
S-Y-G
called for abuse-of-discretion review, we noted separately that we had identified “substantial record evidence supporting the BIA's factual findings.”
Jian Hui Shao,
. Unlike factual findings on whether a particular applicant has demonstrated a well-founded fear of forced sterilization, the question whether Chinese nationals are
categorically
excluded from the definition of refugee under 8 U.S.C. § 1101(a)(42) is one of statutory interpretation that merits analysis under
Chevron. See Jigme Wangchuck v. Dep’t of Homeland Sec.,
