Although the principal issue in this appeal concerns the scope of the career-offender sentencing guideline after
Begay v. United States,
— U.S.-,
Templeton was sentenced to 235 months’ imprisonment as a career offender. Congress has required the Sentencing Commission to ensure that such a criminal is sentenced at or near the statutory maximum. 28 U.S.C. § 994(h). A person is a career offender when “the instant offense of conviction is a felony that is either a crime of violence or a controlled substance offense; and ... the defendant has at least two prior felony convictions of either a crime of violence or a сontrolled substance offense.” U.S.S.G. § 4B1.1.
(a) The term “crime of violence” means any offense under federal or state law, punishable by imprisonment for a term exceeding one year, that — (1) has as an element the use, attempted use, or threatened use of physical force against the person of another, or (2) is burglary *380 of а dwelling, arson, or extortion, involves use of explosives, or otherwise involves conduct that presents a serious potential risk of physical injury to another.
U.S.S.G. § 4B1.2. Templeton acknowledges that bank robbery, his “instant offense of conviction”, is a crime of violence. He argues, however, that he does not have “two prior felоny convictions of either a crime of violence or a controlled substance offense.”
Templeton had been convicted of four felonies before the robberies: escape from prison (twice), failing to report to jail, and drunk driving. Under this circuit’s precedents, each of these offenses is a “violent felony” for the purpose of 18 U.S.C. § 924(e). See
United States v. Franklin,
Begay
dealt with felony drunk driving, the subject of
Sperberg.
(Many states, including Wisconsin, treat driving while intoxicated as a felony when the driver is a recidivist or a serious injury ensues.) Drunk driving does not have the use of physical force as an element of the crime. Thus the Court asked whether drunk driving came within § 924(e)(2)(B)(ii), which covers conduct “that presents a serious potential risk of physical injury to another.” The Court acknowledged that drunk driving does present such a risk — but it added that not all risky activity fits within subsection (ii). Applying the
ejusdem gen-eris
canon, the Court held that a crime comes within subsection (ii) only if it is “similar” to the offenses listed in the subsection: burglary оf a dwelling, arson, extortion, and the use of explosives. The Court thought that these crimes have in common “purposeful, ‘violent,’ and ‘aggressive’ conduct.”
Begay,
Perhaps
Begay
has broken the link between § 924(e) and § 4B1.2. The Court noted that § 924 is part of the Armed Career Criminal Act, which implies a focus “upon the special danger when a particular type of offender — a violent criminal ... ”— possesses a gun.
Begay,
Whether Begay affects the classification of Templeton’s other convictions is a harder question. Our pre-Begay аpproach to escapes, and similar offenses, asked whether a particular crime posed a significant risk of physical injury. Even before Be-gay, we had expressed some doubt about the affirmative answer that our initial decisions had given on the basis of armchair *381 empiricism. Escapes may well lead to injuries — either when the prisoner makes the bid for freedom or when he is recaptured (escape is a continuing offense, so the risks of recapture are properly included in the calculus). But when a statute inquires into risk, data trump judicial guesses.
[I]t is an embarrassment to the law when judges base decisions of consequence on conjectures, in this case a conjecture as to the possible danger of physical injury posed by criminals who fail to show up to begin serving their sentences or fail to return from furloughs or to halfway houses.
United States v. Chambers,
Templeton hired an expert tо collect and analyze statistics about escapes in Wisconsin. The expert discovered that about 11% of those convicted of felony failure to report under Wis. Stat. § 946.425, and 15% of those convicted of escape under Wis. Stat. § 946.42(3), also are charged under one of four statutes punishing some form of resisting arrest: Wis. Stat. § 946.41 (resisting or obstructing an officer), Wis. Stat. § 946.415 (failure to comply with an officer’s attempt to take a person into custody), Wis. Stat. § 346.04 (vehicular eluding), and Wis. Stat. § 940.20(2) (battery of a law officer). According to Templeton, this shows that escapes do not pose a “serious potential risk of physical injury” and so are not crimes of violence.
The problem with this argument is the assumption that a 11% to 15% chance of violent resistance to recapture does not create a “serious” risk. Drawing on the approach to burglary’s risks in
Taylor v. United States,
True, the numbers Templeton reports are not conclusive. Not every episode of resisting arrest results in injury. The rate of injury from escapes and failures to report equals the fraction of escapes resulting in resistance on apprehension (or a confrontation on departure) times the fraction of those occurrences that end in physical injury. Unless every incident of resisting arrest leads to injury, the percentage of escapes that result in injury could be less than what Temрleton reports. Not every escapee is caught or charged, further reducing the first fraction. At the same time, some risk-creating acts on departure or recapture may go uncharged; *382 other forms of violence may accompany an escape. Still other escapes may be overcharged: That аn indictment alleges forceful resistance to arrest does not establish that violence occurred. Thus the actual rate of injury from escapes could be higher or lower than the 11% to 15% range.
A little independent research using data compiled by the Department of Justice shows lower rates of injury. For 1993, of 802 escapes from prison, 5 ended in death and 33 in injury. Three of the deaths, and 13 of the injuries, were to the prisoner, so the risk to guards and bystanders was about 2.7%. (The statute speaks of risk to “another”, so harm to the offenders must be disregarded.) In 1984 there were 893 escapes, leading to the deaths of 8 guards or bystanders, and 6 injuries, for 1.6% risk. See United States Department of Justicе National Criminal Justice Referral Service, Survey: Escapes from Correctional Facilities, 10 Corrections Compendium 11-15 (1986); Prison Escapes and Violence Remain Down, 19 Corrections Compendium 6-21 (1994). A recent comprehensive study gives higher rates. Richard F. Culp, Frequency and Characteristics of Prison Escapes in the United States: An Analysis of National Data, 85 Prison J. 270 (2005), concludes that 8% of escapees commit violence against guards in the process of getting аway, and that at least 6% of escapees commit violent crimes such as murder or robbery against civilians while on the lam. By contrast, walkaways produced no deaths or injuries.
These numbers show that escapes (other than walkaways) generate a sufficient risk of injury to count as crimes of violence. See also
United States v. Billups,
Readers of this opiniоn are entitled to wonder at this point why we have bothered to evaluate the risk from escape and failure to report for custody. After all,
Begay
holds that risk is insufficient — but although risk of injury is insufficient, it is
necessary
if the offense in question is sufficiently “like” the list (burglary, arson, extortion, and the use of explosives) to pass the
ejusdem generis
filter. Shortly after deciding
Begay,
the Court granted certiorari in
Chambers,
— U.S.-,
It isn’t hard to see how
some
escapes could meet the standard laid down in
Be-gay.
If a prisoner fashions a homemade knife (a shank) and uses it to injurе or threaten a guard in order to get away, the escape will meet the Court’s standard. Escapes that entail violence (or the threat of violence) directed against a guard, or an officer attempting to recapture the escapee, are more dangerous than burglary or extortion and involve “purpоseful, ‘violent,’ and ‘aggressive’ conduct”
(Begay,
The problem is that many escapes don’t depend on aggression. A furloughed prisoner’s failure to return is a form of escape. So is a prisoner’s walkaway from a halfway house or a camp that lacks fences. We know from
Taylor
and
Shepard v. United
*383
States,
A person in custody who intentionally escapes from custody under any of the following circumstances is guilty of a Class H felony: (a) Pursuant to a legal arrest for, lawfully charged with or convicted of or sentenced for a crime.
“Custody” includes ... the constructive custody of persons placed on supervised release ... or ... temporarily outside the institution whether for the purpose of work, school, medical care, a leave granted under s. 303.068, a temporary leavе or furlough granted to a juvenile, or otherwise.
“Escape” means to leave in any manner without lawful permission or authority. The definition includes prisoners let out for a specific purpose who do not return as instructed, cf.
Wisconsin v. Magnuson,
A walkaway is not a crime of violence under Begay. Nor is a simple failure to report to custody, which violates Wis. Stat. § 946.425. These offenses do not involve “aggressive” conduct against either a person (as in extortion) or property (arson). All the Wisconsin statute requires is that the escapee “leave”. The crime does not require any violent or aggressive act. Although the statute does require intent, the required mental state is only intent to be free of custody, not intent to injure or threаten anyone. It is easy to violate Wis. Stat. § 946.42 without intending or accomplishing the destruction of property or acting in an aggressive, violence-provoking manner that could jeopardize guards or bystanders.
It will not do to argue, as the prosecutor does, that escape is enough like burglary to make it a crime of violencе. Doubtless for both crimes there is a chance the criminal will confront another person with violent results: the building’s occupant for burglaries and the guards or police for escapes. But Begay requires the crime to be aggressive or violent. All the prosecutor identifies is a common result: in both cases injuries may follow confrontations. Begay requires similarities other than risk of injury. That’s why Begay hеld that drunk driving is not a “violent felony” despite the substantial risk of injury that ensues.
Nor does the fact that both crimes contain an intent element render them similarly violent. Burglary requires both the intent to enter a building and the intent to commit a crime once inside. This second intent is what makes burglary “purposeful, ‘violent,’ and ‘aggressive’ ” in all cases. It involves intentionally еncroaching on another’s property or person, or intentionally injuring another’s property or person. By contrast, many escapes under Wisconsin law are passive.
So it is possible to violate Wis. Stat. § 946.42 in a manner that constitutes a crime of violence under § 4B1.1, and possi
*384
ble to do so in a way that does not.
Taylor
holds that when a state statute can be violated in a way that is, or is not, the basis of federal recidivist treatment, a court may look at the indictment or other charging papers to determine in what way the defendant committed the offense. For other illustrations of this principle, see
Shannon, Howze, Flores v. Ashcroft,
The district judge should find out — if the charging papers and other documents that may be considered under Taylor and Shepard reveal this fact — whether the crimes of which Templeton was convicted are jailbreaks or otherwise involve the sort of active and aggressive conduct that Be-gay requires. If not, or if the issuе was not addressed by the charging papers and equivalent documents, then the convictions must not be classified as crimes of violence.
We must address one last issue before closing. Both the prosecutor and Temple-ton have asked us to hold this appeal for the Court’s decision in Chambers. But the data in this record allow an evaluаtion of risk in a way that the record in Chambers did not. It seems best for this circuit to state its current understanding of not only the risk of these crimes but also the way that Begay affects our precedents. If we have misunderstood Begay, the Supreme Court will tell us. In the meantime the substantial volume of prosecutions that present issues under § 924(e) or § 4B1.1 can be resolved.
Templeton’s conviction is affirmed. His sentence is vacated, and the case is remanded for further consideration in light of this opinion.
