Laron Kevin Kortgaard appeals his conviction and sentence for manufacturing marijuana. We have jurisdiction under 28 U.S.C. § 1291. We affirmed Kortgaard’s conviction in an unpublished Memorandum and deferred submission of the sentencing issues.
United States v. Kortgaard,
Factual and Procedural History
Kortgaard was originally charged with manufacturing marijuana based on his cultivation of 50 or more plants and possession with intent to distribute the same amount. A jury acquitted Kortgaard of possession with intent to distribute but convicted him of manufacturing marijuana in violation of 21 U.S.C. § 841(a)(1) and (b)(1)(C). Based on the jury verdict and Kortgaard’s criminal history, the Guidelines required the district court to sentence Kortgaard to not less than 21 months but not more than 27 months in prison.
Rather than sentence Kortgaard within this “base” sentencing range, the district court departed upward to a range of 37 to 46 months and ultimately sentenced Kort-gaard to 46 months in prison. 1 The upward departure was based on the judge’s finding that the applicable guideline range inadequately represented the seriousness of Kortgaard’s criminal history and his likelihood of recidivism. U.S. Sentencing Guidelines Manual § 4A1.3 (Nov.2001) (amended 2003) (hereinafter U.S.S.G.). 2 In making this finding, the district court considered Kortgaard’s two drug convictions and eight convictions for various other offenses, which occurred in the United States many years ago, and Kortgaard’s six foreign drug convictions and seven foreign convictions for property offenses, which occurred in Canada.
As the district court noted, U.S.S.G. § 4A1.2(e) and (h) preclude consideration of these old domestic convictions and foreign convictions in determining the applicable criminal history category and the “base” sentencing range. Nevertheless, the district court could and did consider those convictions in making an upward departure. Section 4A1.3 expressly permits consideration of “prior sentence(s) not used in computing the criminal history category (e.g., sentences for foreign and tribal offenses),” as well as other uncounted factors, including even criminal conduct not resulting in a conviction.
On appeal, Kortgaard maintains that the district court’s findings and the resulting upward departure are erroneous on the merits and, alternatively, violate the Sixth Amendment. At the time of briefing, the Supreme Court had decided
Apprendi v. New Jersey,
Discussion
In
United States v. Bad Marriage,
A.
The Court clearly stated in
Booker:
“Any fact (other than a prior conviction) which is necessary to support a sentence exceeding the maximum authorized by the facts established by a plea of guilty or a jury verdict must be admitted by the defendant or proved to a jury beyond a reasonable doubt.”
Kortgaard was sentenced under a mandatory sentencing regime. Although the Court ultimately declared the Sentencing Guidelines to be “advisory” going forward,
Booker,
It is inconsequential to our Sixth Amendment analysis that upward departures under § 4A1.3 are discretionary, insofar as “the court
may consider
imposing a sentence departing from the otherwise applicable guideline range” if certain prerequisite findings are made. U.S.S.G. § 4A1.3 (emphasis added). As noted above, at the time Kortgaard was sentenced, sentencing in accordance with the Guidelines was mandatory and the district court here treated the Guidelines accordingly. In such cases, “the judge is bound to impose a sentence within the Guidelines range” supported by the jury’s verdict, the upper limit of which represents the “maximum authorized” sentence.
Booker,
Under the mandatory Guidelines regime in effect at the time Kortgaard was sentenced, the “maximum authorized” sentence, or “the Guideline range supported by the jury verdict alone,” was 21 to 27 months in prison.
Booker,
B.
Kortgaard contends that the district court’s decision to depart upward under § 4A1.3 without submitting the issue to a jury violates the Sixth Amendment because § 4A1.3 requires extra-verdict factual findings beyond the facts of Kortgaard’s prior convictions and sentences. The Government essentially contends that Kort-gaard’s sentence is within Apprendi’s exception for the fact of a prior conviction because the sentencing judge’s findings under § 4A1.3 followed as a matter of law from the fact of Kortgaard’s prior convictions.
1.
The mere fact that the sentencing judge considered prior convictions in departing upward does not bring this case within the exception for “the fact of a prior conviction” that the Court carved out in
Apprendi,
The 2001 version of § 4A1.3 provides in pertinent part:
If reliable information indicates that the criminal history category does not adequately reflect the seriousness of the defendant’s past criminal conduct or the likelihood that the defendant will commit other crimes, the court may consider imposing a sentence departing from the otherwise applicable guideline range. Such information may include, but is not limited to, information concerning:
(a) prior sentence(s) not used in computing the criminal history category (e.g., sentences for foreign and tribal offenses);
*607 (b) prior sentence(s) of substantially more than one year imposed as a result of independent crimes committed on different occasions;
(c) prior similar misconduct established by a civil adjudication or by a failure to comply with an administrative order;
(d) whether the defendant was pending trial or sentencing on another charge at the time of the instant offense;
(e) prior similar adult criminal conduct not resulting in a criminal conviction. A departure under this provision is warranted when the criminal history category significantly under-represents the seriousness of the defendant’s criminal history or the likelihood that the defendant will commit further crimes.
U.S.S.G. § 4A1.3. 3
Uncounted prior offenses are clearly part of the inquiry under § 4A1.3, but that is only where the inquiry begins, not where it ends. The fact of prior offenses is merely one variable that a sentencing judge may consider in a larger calculus. The ultimate finding that must be made before departing upward under § 4A1.3 is that “the criminal history category significantly under-represents the seriousness of the defendant’s criminal history or the likelihood that the defendant will commit further crimes.”
Id.; see United States v. Connelly,
2.
We also find that the ultimate § 4A1.3 determinations of the “seriousness” of a defendant’s past misconduct and a defendant’s “likelihood” of recidivism are factual matters. Contending instead that these determinations are issues of law following from the fact of a prior conviction, the Government analogizes § 4A1.3 determinations to decisions classifying an offense as a “violent felony.”
See, e.g., United States v. Smith,
Terms like “violent felony” and “crime of violence” are defined by statute and according to certain enumerated elements.
See, e.g.,
18 U.S.C. § 924(e)(2)(B); U.S.S.G. § 4B1.2(a). Such determinations are essentially in-or-out, categorical classifications of individual offenses that follow necessarily from the elements of the conviction and jury-found or admitted facts; inquiry into the underlying facts of the conviction is otherwise prohibited.
See Von Brown,
*608 By contrast, the Guidelines provide no statutory definition for “seriousness” and “likelihood,” let alone a definition relying on the elements of the offense. Cf. U.S.S.G. § 4B1.2(a) (defining “crime of violence”). Section 4A1.3 is a policy statement. It authorizes the sentencing judge to exercise discretion, stating that the court “may consider” a departure, and it provides only examples of criminal histories that a sentencing judge “might” or “may” find sufficient depending on the facts of a particular case. U.S.S.G. § 4A1.3; see also id. § 4A1.3, cmt. background (“This policy statement recognizes that the criminal history score is unlikely to take into account all the variations in the seriousness of criminal history that may occur.... This policy statement authorizes the consideration of a departure ... and provides guidance for the consideration of such departures.”).
In applying the “seriousness” factor, we have observed that “it is the quality of the defendant’s criminal history not the quantity which is decisive.”
United States v. Segura-Del Real,
In assessing a defendant’s “likelihood” of future recidivism, we have analyzed “1) the quantity (or ‘repetitiveness’) of uncounted criminal conduct, 2) the similarity of uncounted criminal conduct to the offense conduct, and 3) the degree to which the defendant has been deterred by prior sentences.”
Connelly,
We find that these inquiries are fundamentally factual in nature. On the whole, applying § 4A1.3 requires an exercise of discretion, qualitative and relativistic assessments of the nature of a defendant’s overall record and pattern of criminality, and estimations of a defendant’s propensity towards future recidivism. These de *609 terminations do not follow necessarily from the fact of any prior conviction or sentence but instead call for the judgment of a factfinder.
Our conclusion is consistent with our prior characterization and treatment of the “serious[ness]” and “likelihood” findings under § 4A1.3 as “factual findings.”
Myers,
Moreover, the Supreme Court has characterized upward departure determinations in general as “factual matters.”
Koon,
The Government seeks to avoid the factual nature of the departure inquiry by describing it at a higher level of generality linked closely to questions of law. The relevant question, however, is not, as the Government says, “whether a particular factor is within the ‘heartland’” as a general proposition, but whether the particular factor is within the heartland given all the facts of the case.... What the district court must determine is whether -the. misconduct that occurred in the particular instance suffices to make the case atypical. The answer is apt to vary depending on, for instance, the severity of the misconduct, its timing, and the disruption it causes. These considerations are factual matters.
Id.
at 99-100,
3.
We are also guided by our decision in
United States v.- Tighe,
wherein we stated that the prior conviction exception “should remain a ‘narrow exception’ to
Apprendi.”
We are faced here with another request to extend or broadly construe
Apprendi’s
exception in order to include within it issues that have not been submitted to a jury. We once again decline to do so and continue to treat the exception as “a narrow exception to the general rule.”
Apprendi,
Apprendi
stated the exception as covering
“the fact of
a prior conviction,” not facts that are derived or inferred therefrom.
C.
Because our holding today applies to upward departures under § 4A1.3 generally, we need not reach Kortgaard’s argument under
Tighe
that the sentencing judge’s consideration of Kortgaard’s Canadian convictions violates the Sixth Amendment. We express no opinion as to whether Canadian convictions or other foreign convictions, like nonjury juvenile adjudications, lack the requisite due process protections to qualify for
Apprendi’s
exception for the fact of a prior conviction.
Cf. Tighe,
We also express no opinion with respect to whether the district court’s decision to depart upward pursuant to § 4A1.3 constitutes “plain error” within the meaning of
United States v. Ameline,
*611 Conclusion
For the foregoing reasons, we hold that upward departures under § 4A1.3 of the Sentencing Guidelines involve factual findings beyond the fact of a prior conviction and are not within
Apprendi’s
exception for the fact of a prior conviction. Kort-gaard was sentenced under a mandatory sentencing regime, the district judge departed upward under § 4A1.3 based on judicially determined facts, and the actual sentence exceeds the maximum authorized at the time based solely on the jury’s verdict. Kortgaard’s sentence therefore violates the Sixth Amendment,
Booker,
SENTENCE VACATED AND REMANDED.
Notes
. The district court also sentenced Kortgaard to a consecutive 46-month term for violation of supervised release based on the present conviction. Kortgaard was on supervised release from a 1994 heroin conviction at the time he committed the instant offense.
. All citations to the U.S. Sentencing Guidelines in this opinion are to the version incorporating amendments effective November 1, 2001, unless otherwise indicated.
. The 2003 amendments to § 4A1.3 reorganized the upward and downward departure provisions and renumbered all subsections; however, the operative text of the core provisions — the “seriousness” and "likelihood” determination and the permissible factors — is practically identical. Compare U.S.S.G. § 4A1.3 (Nov.2001), with U.S.S.G. § 4A1.3 (Nov.2004).
. Our prior classifications of issues as ones of fact or law are instructive evén though the standards of review we once employed have since changed.
Myers
applied the three-part test of
United States v. Lira-Barraza,
