This appeal tests the boundaries of the district court’s authority to depart from the prescribed guideline sentencing range (GSR). Concluding, as we do, that the court roamed too far afield, we vacate the imposed sentence and remand for resen-tencing.
/.
Background
The relevant facts are simple and straightforward. On May 11, 1999, defendant-appellee Eugene Edward Martin pleaded guilty to a charge of distributing 119.6 grams of cocaine base.
See
21 U.S.C. § 841. The district court convened the disposition hearing on September 8, 1999. It applied the 1998 edition of the United States Sentencing Guidelines — a determination with which no one quarrels,
see United States v. Harotunian,
To this point, the district court’s judgments were impeccable. The court, however, did not stop there; it snubbed the GSR and departed downward sua sponte to impose a 64-month incarcerative term. The judge premised this departure on a combination of two factors. First, he remarked “the absence of [an active] Sentencing Commission.” 1 This circumstance, he reasoned, was one that “no one had contemplated” and that permitted him to depart “if I think it reasonable that had there been a Commission the guidelines would in fact apply differently.” Judge Young then referred to a statistical compilation that he had directed the chief probation officer to prepare. These statistics purported to reflect all federal sentences imposed in fiscal year 1997 on persons whose primary offense was drug trafficking, regardless of the nature or amount of the substances involved. In Judge Young’s view, the data “show[ed] that nationally the median months in prison out of 17,137 offenders sentenced was 57 months, and in the First Circuit the mean was 67.8 months, with a median of 50 months out of 543 offenders.” Accordingly, sentencing Martin within the GSR would promote this disparity, whereas imposing a shorter term of immurement would partially offset it (and was, in the judge’s opinion, “just and fair”).
The government appeals this downward departure.
II.
Analysis
We review departure decisions for abuse of discretion.
See Koon v. United States,
A
Before proceeding to that point, however, we pause to consider the defendant’s contention that the government forfeited the argument that it advances on appeal by failing to raise it below. On the surface, this contention seems potent — but the surrounding circumstances dissipate its force.
A sentencing court has an obligation to give reasonable notice that it is contemplating a departure.
See Burns v. United States,
The defendant questions whether this is so, adverting to a pretrial conference held on December 21, 1998, in which Judge Young mentioned the dormancy of the Sentencing Commission, expressed concern about the status of the guidelines, and told the parties that he intended to obtain some sentencing data from the chief *56 probation officer. We reject the suggestion that these comments constituted adequate notice of a contemplated departure.
In the first place, the judge’s remarks were made almost five months before the defendant changed his plea and some nine months before the disposition hearing. The record reveals no continuing dialogue during the interim. Moreover, the presen-tence investigation report made no mention of this (or any other) possible basis for departure. On these facts, we do not think that the prosecutor reasonably could have been expected to divine an intention to depart despite the court’s evident discomfiture with the Sentencing Commission’s status. The judge’s ruminations at the pretrial conference — ruminations that he himself described as “only academic”— may have adumbrated, but certainly did not articulate, a coherent rationale for departure.
If more were needed — and we doubt that it is — the statistics upon which the judge rested the departure were not furnished to the prosecution at any time prior to the disposition hearing. This was too late: a sentencing court must give fair warning not only of the rationale for a possible departure but also of the facts that undergird it in the particular instance.
See United States v. Morris,
Next, we turn to the question of remedy. In some circumstances, the omission of a departure warning might engender a remand for further proceedings. Here, however, such a course would unduly prolong matters without any corresponding gain. The government’s objection to the departure is purely legal in nature, the parties have fully briefed the merits, and supplementary factfinding is not indicated. As long as fairness concerns are not compromised, courts should try to be practical. In the circumstances of this case, it makes sense to treat the lower court’s failure to give notice as excusing the government’s procedural default and rendering the departure decision ripe for appellate review.
2
Accord United States v. Bartsma,
B
Having vaulted this procedural hurdle, we repair to the first prong of the Dethlefs inquiry. A court may impose a sentence outside the GSR if “the court finds that there exists an aggravating or mitigating circumstance of a kind, or to a degree, not adequately taken into consideration by the Sentencing Commission in formulating the guidelines that should result in a sentence different from that described.” 18 U.S.C. § 3663(b). To determine whether a circumstance was adequately considered by the Commission, the court must examine “the sentencing guidelines, policy statements, and official commentary of the Sentencing Commission.” Id. These precepts are embedded, virtually word for word, in the guidelines themselves. See USSG § 5K2.0.
The departure power is intended to ameliorate the mechanistic rigidity of the guidelines and to import a modicum of flexibility into the sentencing calculus. Thus, the Commission, generally speaking, did “not intend to limit the kinds of factors, whether or not mentioned anywhere in the guidelines, that could constitute grounds for departure in an unusual case.” USSG Ch.l, Pt.A, intro, comment. (n.4(b)). *57 Given this overall philosophy, courts categorically reject potential grounds for departure at their peril.
Most general rules admit of exceptions, however, and there are several exceptions to the rule that a departure theoretically can be grounded on any differentiating factor. Under these exceptions, sentencing courts are barred from basing departures on forbidden factors, factors adequately considered by the Commission, factors that lack relevance, and factors that offend the framework and purpose of the guidelines.
The first of these exceptions refers to certain enumerated factors that the Commission has placed beyond the pale, e.g., race, sex, national origin, creed, religion, and socioeconomic status.
See
USSG § 5H1.10. Forbidden factors can never serve as the basis for a departure.
See Koon,
In this case, the lower court predicated its downward departure on the moribund status of the Sentencing Commission, together with the perceived disparity between the defendant’s GSR and the national median sentence for persons convicted of federal drug-trafficking offenses. Neither element, singularly or in combination, can carry the weight of a downward departure.
The Sentencing Commission certainly did not anticipate being without sufficient members to muster a quorum. See USSG Ch.l, Pt.A, intro, comment. (n.4(b)) (explaining that “[t]he Commission is a permanent body”). But the Commission’s lack of a quorum, standing alone, is simply irrelevant to an individual sentencing decision. Nothing about vacancies on the Commission is inherently aggravating or mitigating for purposes of a departure assessment. This circumstance therefore needs help to clear the relevancy hurdle: there must be a solid, non-speculative reason to believe that the guidelines would apply differently had the Commission been at full strength. In the case at bar, the court’s adjuvant reason was itself invalid as a matter of law. We explain briefly.
Under our jurisprudence, the fact that the national median for a broadly stated offense type may be above or below a particular defendant’s GSR cannot be used to justify a sentencing departure.
See United States v. Rodriguez,
63 F.3d
*58
1159, 1168 (1st Cir.1995) (“Absent misapplication of the Guidelines, the mere fact of disparity is of no consequence.”);
see also United States v. Banuelos-Rodriguez,
The district court’s statistical foray aptly illustrates the wisdom of this point. The base offense level for drug trafficking varies from six (for, e.g., less than 250 grams of marijuana) to thirty-eight (for, e.g., 30,-000 kilograms of marijuana). See USSG § 2Dl.l(c). For defendants who are in criminal history category I, an offense level of six translates into a GSR of 0-6 months of imprisonment, whereas an offense level of thirty-eight produces a GSR of 235-293 months. See USSG Ch.5, Pt.A (sentencing table). This graduated sentencing structure reflects the Commission’s view that not all drug-trafficking offenses are equivalent; some deserve much longer sentences than others. To bring the illustration closer to home, this structure strongly suggests that the Commission intended an individual responsible for distributing 119.6 grams of cocaine base — like Martin — to serve more time than the average drug-trafficking offender. Using the median sentence imposed as a lodestar for routine departures would effectively overrule that considered judgment. Accordingly, this factor is ineligible for inclusion in the departure calculus.
Since it is clear that the district court would not have departed absent reliance on this impermissible datum, we could end the analysis here.
Cf.
Brewster,
The structure and purpose of the guidelines do not permit departures based on counterfactual reasoning of the type employed by the court below. Courts must deal with the guidelines as they stand, without speculation about how the Commission might (or might not) choose to modify them at some future date. 3 Just as statutes outlive the particular legislators who enact them (whether or not the legislative body is in session), so too the enforceability of the guidelines does not depend on the continued functioning of the Commission. To the contrary, sentencing guidelines, once promulgated, have the force of law, see 18 U.S.C. § 3553(b); USSG Ch.l, Pt.A, intro, comment, (n.2), and that circumstance obtains even when the Commission is empty. Thus, departures (up or down) based on the inherently speculative possibility that the guidelines might under other circumstances be modified are impermissible.
Martin offers a variation on this theme. He suggests that the moribund status of the Sentencing Commission left a vacuum and permitted the trial judge to fill it. We reject this surmise.
In the pre-guidelines era, judges made sentencing choices with few restrictions. But the adoption of the guidelines reined in that largely unbridled discretion. From that point forward, judges no longer were
*59
permitted to substitute their personal brand of justice for the collective wisdom of the Sentencing Commission.
See United States v. Jackson,
There is one more leg to our journey. In a last-ditch effort to salvage the sentence, Martin strives to convince us that we should overlook any error because the degree of departure was modest (he uses the phrase “de minimis”). We are not persuaded. The first — and most basic — question in a departure inquiry is whether the stated ground for departure is permissible.
See Dethlefs,
III.
Conclusion
We need go no further. Because it was a clear abuse of discretion for the district court to depart downward on account of Commission vacancies, unrefined summary statistics, or a combination of the two, the judgment must be vacated.
The government’s appeal is sustained, the sentence appealed from is vacated, and the case is remanded for resentenc-ing in accordance with this opinion.
Notes
. In fact, the Commission had no voting members from and after October 31, 1998, having lost its quorum earlier that year. This situation persisted until the Senate confirmed seven new Commissioners on November 10, 1999.
. We hasten to add that the error of which the government complains is plain, and thus warrants correction whether or not preserved.
See United States v. Mangone,
. At the expense of carting coal to Newcastle, we note that there is not so much as a hint in the record that the Commission, had it been velivolant, would have reacted to the statistics cited by the district court by reducing the penalties for crack cocaine — or that, had the Commission done so, Congress would have let the revision become law.
