Siеrra Club and two of its members (“Sierra Club”), challenging the adequacy of an Environmental Impact Statement (“EIS”), appeal from a summary judgment entered by the United States District Court for the District of Maine in favor of appellees Maine Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, Army Corps of Engineers, and United States Coast Guard (“agencies”) on Sierra Club’s National Environmental Policy Act (“NEPA”) claims arising out of a port project in Searsport, Maine. Although it appears that the Federal Highway Administration is ultimately responsible for the preparation of the final EIS,
see Sierra Club v. Marsh,
Sierra Club challenges the district court’s conclusion that the analysis of secondary impacts in the agencies’ final EIS satisfies NEPA. We affirm.
I.
Background
More than ten years ago, Maine Department of Transportation decided to build a modеrn port facility on Sears Island in Searsport, Maine. The port project includes construction of a marine dry cargo terminal and the building of a causeway and highways to provide full rail and road access to the port facility. A more detailed description of the project appears in
Sierra
*766
Club v. Marsh,
In three separate cases filed in the United States District Court for the District of Maine, Sierra Club has initiated several legal challenges to the construction of the port facility! Rulings of the district court in the first two cases have been the subject of three appeals to this court.
See Sierra Club v. Marsh,
The present appeal is from a final judgment in the third case, which was commenced by a complaint filed on May 19, 1988. In this complaint Sierra Club requests declarаtory and injunctive relief halting construction of the marine dry cargo terminal on Sears Island. The complaint alleges that construction permits issued by the federal agency defendants must be suspended due to failure to comply with the Clean Water Act, 33 U.S.C. § 1344, section 9 of the Rivers and Harbors Act, 33 U.S.C. § 401, and NEPA, 42 U.S.C. § 4331, et seq.
Some of the issues raised in the complaint have been dispositively resolved , and are not before us. In particular, the district court entered two separate final judgments for the agéncies — on the Clean Water Act claims on January 30, 1990 and on the Harbor Act claims on March 29, 1991— from which Sierra Club did not appeal. These claims are not at issue in this appeal. The procedural history that follows, therefore, is concerned only with the issues that Sierra Club seeks to pursue on this appeal.
Sierra Club moved for a preliminary injunction on August 12, 1988. The district court denied Sierra Club’s motion on the ground that Sierra Club had failed to establish that it would be irreparably harmed if an injunction was not issued.
See Sierra Club v. Marsh,
Approximately two months after entering the preliminary injunction, the district court allowed, over opposition by Sierra Club, a defense motion for leave to make a supplemental filing. The agencies filed four affidavits to explain the administrative record, and all parties filed additional memoranda. After reviewing the administrative record,' affidavits, and additional memoranda from the parties, the district court (Cyr, J.) granted summary judgment for the agencies on Sierra Club’s NEPA secondary impacts claim and denied Sierra Club’s cross-motion for summary judgment.
See Sierra Club v. Marsh,
Sierra Club appealed immediately from the summary judgment оrder. This court concluded that the district court’s decision on summary judgment was interlocutory rather than final, that it had not amended the preliminary injunction within the meaning of 28 U.S.C. § 1292(a)(1), and that no appealable order had been entered. It dismissed the appeal for want of jurisdiction.
See Sierra Club v. Marsh,
By Order of January 23, 1992, as amended February 12, 1992, the district court (Brody, J.) entered final judgment for the agencies, incorporating, inter alia, the ear *767 lier summary judgment for the agencies on Sierra Club’s NEPA secondary impact claim. This appeal followed.
In
Sierra Club IV-C,
the district court concluded also that Sierra Club had demonstrated a likelihood of success on the merits of its claim that the agencies violated NEPA by not preparing a supplemental EIS to evaluate new information on the acreage of the project.
See Sierra Club IV-C,
II.
Legal Requirements Regarding EIS Secondary Impacts Analysis
NEPA requires federal agencies to prepare “a detailed statement ... on the environmental impact” of any proposed federal project “significantly affecting the quality of the human environment.” 42 U.S.C. § 4332(2)(C)(i). Not all impacts need be discussed in exhaustive detail. First, only those effects that are “likely” (or “foreseeable” or “rеasonably foreseeable”) need be discussed,
see Sierra Club I,
In the interest of clarity, we elaborate immediately below on the first of these two points and on its applicability to this case. More on the second point appears in Part V, infra.
The federal Council on Environmental Quality has issued regulations that inform federal agencies of what must be included in the EIS.
See
40 C.F.R. § 1500,
et seq.
(1991);
Sierra Club I,
*768 which are caused by the action and are later in time or farther removed in distance, but are still reasonably foreseeable. Indirect effects may include grоwth inducing effects and other effects related to induced changes in the pattern of land use, population density or growth rate, and related effects on air and water and other natural systems, including ecosystems.
40 C.F.R. § 1508.8.
Agencies must consider only those indirect effects that are “reasonably foreseeable.” They need not consider potential effects that are highly speculative or indefinite.
See Kleppe v. Sierra Club,
Whether a particular set of impacts is definite enough to take into account, or too speculative to warrant consideration, reflects several different factors. With what confidence can one say that the impacts are likely to occur? Can one describe them ‘now’ with sufficient specificity to make their consideration useful? If the decisionmaker does not take them into account ‘now,’ will the decisionmaker be able to take account of them before the agency is so firmly committed to the project that further environmental knowledge, as a practiсal matter, will prove irrelevant to the government’s decision?
Sierra Club I,
III.
The Challenged EIS Analysis of Secondary Impacts
The EIS at issue in this case defines secondary impacts as “impacts induced by and attributable to the [cargo] terminal and its operation.” Final EIS, Vol. I, 4-108 (Appendix (“App.”) 117).
The EIS analysis of secondary impacts devotes 47 pages to a discussion of a proposed industrial park on Sears Island.
See Sierra Club IV-A,
In its Memorandum on Sierra Club’s motion for a preliminary injunction, the district court determined that the agencies’ decision to include the four light-dry industries in the EIS evaluation of secondary impacts was reasonable.
See Sierra Club IV-C,
there is nothing in the record, except ipse dixit, to demonstrate an actual agency decision to restrict the secondary impact analysis to these four types of potential industrial development, much less the rationale for such a decision.
Id. The court added that
judicial review is rendered utterly infeasible where the administrative record fails even to disclose whether information seemingly relevant to a rational secondary impact analysis was ever considered by the agency or, if so, how it was considered.
Id. at 565 (emphasis added). Accordingly, the court concluded that Sierra Club had exhibited a likelihood of success on the merits of its claim that the EIS analysis of secondary impacts was inadequate and entered a preliminаry injunction.
In the filings submitted after the preliminary injunction was issued, the agencies offered four affidavits to supplement and
*769
explain the administrative record.
See
Supplemental Affidavit of Francis Mahady (“Mahady Supplemental Affidavit”); Supplemental Affidavit of William Richardson (“Richardson Supplemental Affidavit”); Supplemental Affidavit of Robert Hunter; Affidavit of Leslie Stevens. Sierra Club moved to strike the affidavits. The district court, citing
Camp v. Pitts,
In the present appeal, following further proceedings and the entry of Final Judgment, Sierra Club contends (1) that the district court erred in admitting and considering the agencies’ supplemental affidavits to determine whether the EIS discussion of secondary impacts is adequate and (2)' that the district court erred in concluding that the final EIS adequately considers the secondary impacts of the port project.
IV.
Standards of Review
Judicial review of an agency’s compliance with NEPA is governed by section 10 of the Administrative Procedure Act, 5 U.S.C. § 701,
et seq. See Marsh v. Oregon Natural Resources Council,
The district court, applying this standard of review, concluded that the agencies’ decision to restrict the EIS secondary impacts analysis to light-dry industries was rational and supportable on the record.
See Sierra Club IV-D,
In Sierra Club I, we stated that we will take a practical approach to deciding what standard of review to apply to our review of a district court’s review of an agency decision.
We should be more willing, or be less willing, to differ with a district court about the ‘reasonableness’ or ‘arbitrariness’ of any agency decision, depending on the particular features of the particular case that seem to make a more independent, or less independent, appellate court scrutiny of the administrative record appropriate.
*770
Sierra Club I,
The agencies argue, unsurprisingly, that the circumstances of this case at this point in the litigation require us to apply the “hesitate-to-overturn” standard in our review of the district court’s decision. Sierra Club, also unsurprisingly, contends that the circumstances of this case mandate that we aрply the “considerable-degree-of-independence” standard. We need not resolve this dispute. We conclude that even if we apply the less deferential “considerable-degree-of-independence” standard, the district court’s decision must be affirmed.
V.
The Affidavits
Sierra Club argues that the district court erred in admitting and considering the agencies’ supplemental affidavits to determine the adequacy of the EIS evaluation of secondary impacts.
A.
As stated in Part II,
supra,
NEPA requires an agency to prepare a “detailed statement” discussing,
inter alia,
the indirect effects of a proposed project.
See
40 C.F.R. § 1502.16. This requirement serves many purposes. “The detailed statement aids a reviewing court to ascertain whether the agency has given [ ] good faith consideration to environmental concerns ..., provides environmental information to the public and interested departments of government, and prevents stubborn problems or significant criticism from being shielded from internal and external scrutiny.”
Grazing Fields Farm,
Because public disclosure is a central purpose of NEPA, an EIS that does not include all that is requirеd by NEPA may not be cured by memoranda or reports that are included in the administrative record but are not incorporated into the EIS itself.
See id.
at 1073;
see also Watt,
Sierra Club argues that “[hjaving concluded on May 30, 1989,
Sierra Club IV-C,
First, the district court did not conclude that the EIS was inadequate because it (the EIS) did not explain how the agencies determined the scope of the EIS secondary impacts analysis. Instead, the court con-
*771
eluded that it could find nothing in the
administrative record
that evidenced that the agencies had ever made a decision on what secondary impacts to include in the EIS, let alone any evidence of the rationale for that decision.
See
Part III,
supra; Sierra Club IV-C,
Second, and more important, Sierra Club’s contention suffers from a false premise. The implied premise of its position is that NEPA
requires the EIS to explain how the agencies determined the scope of the EIS
— that, for example, NEPA requires the EIS to include a discussion of why the agency determined that certain indirect effects of a proposed project
are not reasonably foreseeable and therefore are not discussed in the EIS.
It is true that NEPA requires an EIS to analyze the environmental effects of what the agency decisionmakers determine to be the secondary industrial effects of a proposed project. In the statute and its concomitant regulations, however, there is nothing that requires an EIS to explain how an agency determined the scope of an EIS, including, for example, why it excluded from the EIS each alleged impact that the agencies determined did not in fact qualify as a secondary impact.
See Piedmont Heights Civic Club, Inc. v. Moreland,
Our decision in
Grazing Fields Farm
illustrates this distinction. NEPA requires an EIS to include an evaluation of alternatives to the proposed agency action.
See
42 U.S.C. § 4332(2)(C)(iii). The plaintiff in
Grazing Fields Farm
challenged the adequacy of an EIS prepared for a highway project on the ground that it did not adequately discuss a suggested alternative to the proposed route of the highway. After reviewing the administrative record, the district court concluded that the federal agency had carefully and thoroughly evaluated the alternative in compliance with NEPA, even though that evaluation and the information it was based upon was not included in the EIS.
See Grazing Fields Farm,
Study of the administrative record by the court helps to assess the degree of discussion any particular alternative deserves, based on the alternative’s feasibility and the stage in the decision-making process it is brought to the attention of the agency_ This use of the record to inform a court’s judgment about the adequacy of an EIS must be distinguished from our holding today that agency consideration of alternatives evidenced by the record cannot replace the NEPA mandated discussion of alternatives in the [EIS] itself. In other words, the district court can use the administrative record to set the standard for how much discussion within the EIS a particular alternative merits, but cannot deem the unincorporated record to satisfy that standard.
Id.
(footnotes omitted);
see also Valley Citizens For a Safe Env’t v. Aldridge,
Another way of explaining when it is appropriate for a court to go beyond examining the EIS itself and review the administrative record in a NEPA case is to say that a reviewing court may not rely on information and analysis in an administrative record to cure an inadequate EIS, but it may, and indeed must, review the administrative record to determine whether the EIS is inadequate in the first place.
See Sierra Club IV-D,
In this case the district court similarly examined the administrative record, including the supplementary affidavits, to determine whether the EIS secondary impact analysis was adequate. After reviewing the record, the court concluded that it was reasonable for the agencies to conclude that the four light-dry industries evaluated in the EIS are the only industries that are reasonably likely to develop on Sears Island as a result of the port project. If, in contrast, the district court had concluded, for example, that it was unreasonable for the agencies to decide that heavy industry was not a reasonably foreseeable secondary impact of the port project, therefore making the EIS analysis of secondary impacts inadequate (because the EIS did not discuss all reasonably foreseeable indirect effects), that inadequacy could not be cured by information and analysis that is in the administrative record but not incorporated into the EIS.
See Grazing Fields Farm,
B.
Having determined that a reviewing court may turn to the administrative record to decide whether an agency’s decision on the scope of an EIS is reasonable, we must address whether the district court erred in permitting supplementation of the administrative record by considering the agencies’ affidavits submitted after entry of the preliminary injunction.
The focal point for a cоurt's review of an agency’s decision is the administrative record.
See, e.g., Florida Power & Light Co. v. Lorion,
Where there was a failure to explain administrative action so as to frustrate effective judicial review, ... the remedy is to obtain from the agency, either through affidavits or testimony, such additional explanation of the reasons for the agency decision as may prove necessary.
Camp,
The administrative record may be “supplemented, if necessary, by affidavits, depositions, or other proof of an explanatory nature.”
Arkla Exploration Co. v. Texas Oil & Gas Corp.,
The district court concluded initially that the administrative record did not contain evidence that the agencies considered the prospect that industries other than light-dry industries might locate on Sears Island. The court explained that
[although it is conceivable that a careful consideration of all available information could have enabled the [agencies] rationally to conclude that the Mallar Report presented a logical basis for determining which industries were “reasonably foreseeable” and could bе attributable to the Sears Island port project, the court cannot determine from the record that any such ... decision was “founded on a reasoned evaluation of the relevant information.”
Sierra Club IV-C,
One reason the court could not initially determine whether the agencies had properly considered all the information before them was that the administrative record reflected that a special report on secondary impacts (“ERA Special Report”) was to be prepared, yet the special report was not included in the record and there was nothing in the record to indicate that the proper decisionmakers had ever reviewed that report.
See Sierra Club IV-C,
The affidavits demonstrate that there was an actual agency decision on the scope of the EIS secondary impact analysis. Francis Mahady (Vice-President of Economics Research Associates, the company responsible for preparing the written analysis of the reasonably foreseeable secondary impacts of the port project) attests that he explained his rationale for restricting the analysis to the four light-dry industries, as well as his other conclusions as to secondary impacts, to the appropriate agency decisionmakers. Mahady Supplemental Affidavit at ¶ 14. William Richardson (the Division Administrator of the Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, and the person responsible for the administration of the Federal-aid Highway Program in Maine, including compliance with all applicable laws, see Richardson Supplemental Affidavit at H 1) explains that he made a deliberate decision to restrict the secondary impact analysis to light-dry industry:
Based upon my previous participation in meetings on this issue, upon my review of the Municipal Response Plan, upon Mahady’s February 12,1986 presentation and upon the ensuing discussion among attendees at that February 12 meeting, I thought the choice to be reasonable and sensible. The light, dry industries identified and discussed in the Final EIS (Final EIS at 4-109 to 4-111) appeared to me to be the most probable types of users in light of the various physical and environmental limitations which have to be taken into account in developing Sears Island.
Richardson Supplemental Affidavit at II 6.
The affidavits also provide an explanation for the agencies’ decision to restrict *774 the secondary impact analysis to light-dry industries. Mahady describes the “target market analysis” method used to determine the types of industries selected for analysis in the EIS and explains how that method selected the four light-dry industries as likely tenants and eliminated heavy industry as a reasonably foreseeable tenant of Sears Island. Mahady Supplemental Affidavit at ¶¶ 11, 12. Mahady also explains why the agencies no longer consider the development of food and forest product manufacturing as a likely consequence of the port project, id. at 1113, and he explains how information on the limited sewer and water capabilities of Sears Island led the agencies to conclude that heavy industry would not develop on Sears Island as a result of the port project, id. at ¶ 10.
Based on these affidavits, the district court concluded that its questions about whether the agencies’ decisionmakers had considered all available information and had made an actual decision to restrict the EIS to light-dry industry had been answered.
See Sierra Club IV-D,
We are satisfied that the affidavits explain the agencies’ decision in the manner contemplated by Camp v. Pitts. The affidavits do not contain any “facts” about the proposed project that are not also included in the EIS and administrative record. Rather, the affidavits simply explain why, based upon the information in the administrative record and the EIS, the agencies concluded that the four light-dry industries were the only reasonably foreseeable secondary industrial effects of the proposed port project.
Sierra Club argues that Camp v. Pitts does not apply to a court’s review of an agency' decision under NEPA because to allow explanatory affidavits would violate NEPA’s goal of public disclosure. As stated in Part Y(A), supra, however, NEPA does not require an EIS to discuss how the agency determined the scope of the EIS. Thus, NEPA is not violated when a court relies upon affidavits to explain an agency’s rationale for its decision that a certain possible indirect effect of a proposed project is not within the scope of the EIS because it is not “reasonably foreseeable.” Moreover, Sierra Club has cited no authority for its assertion that a court should review an agency’s decision about what to include in a NEPA-mandated EIS in a manner different from the way courts typically review agency decisions.
Sierra Club's assertion that the affidavits are inadmissible because they constitute post-hoc “rationalizations” is similarly without merit. In
Overton Park,
the Supreme Court specifically anticipated that affidavits containing post-hoc explanations would be considered by courts reviewing the propriety of an agency decision. The solution in such situations is not to ignore the affidavits altogether, but rather to view them “critically.”
Overton Park,
Sierra Club failed to proffer in the district court any evidence that disputed the agencies’ explanations. For example, Sierra Club challenged the credibility of Maha-dy’s assertion that heavy industry could not develop on Sears’ Island because of the Island’s limited water and sewer capabilities. Sierra Club claimed that a report prepared for the agencies (the Mallar Report) indicates that one million gallons of water per day could be provided to Sears Island. The district court found, however, that the Mallar Report states that “major facility improvements would be required at considerable cost” to provide a million gallons of water a day, and that Sierra Club had offered no evidence to rebut Mahady’s conclusion that the large capital expenditures required to make such improvements would render such improvements unlikely.
Sierra Club IV-D,
VI.
Application of the Legal Requirements to the Secondary Impact Analysis in the Challenged EIS
Sierra Club challenges the agencies’ decision to restrict the EIS analysis of secondary impacts to light-dry industries on the ground that “it is too unreasonable for the law to permit it to stand.”
Sierra Club I,
A.
Sierra Club claims that there is nothing in the EIS or administrative record that supports a conclusion that the port project will “induce” the development of the four light-dry industries on Sears Island. In suppоrt of its argument, Sierra Club points out that the final EIS states that the four light-dry industries analyzed as secondary impacts do not require access to water. See Final EIS, Vol. II, F-5 (App. 220). The EIS states also that “due to the high availability of fully serviced industrial park land in the Greater Bangor area” industries that do not require access to water are likely to locate in the Greater Bangor area rather than the Searsport area. See id. at F-2 (App. 204). Sierra Club asserts also that none of the reports before the agencies lists a marine cargo port as a siting factor for any of the four light-dry industries.
The agencies concluded that because of the highly competitive nature of industrial park development in Maine, “it was reasonably certain that the industries which ultimately located in the industrial park would be those which both were acceptable to the local population and were the targets of intensive marketing efforts and inducements.” Mahady Supplemental Affidavit at ¶ 11. This method of determining likely tenants of the industrial pаrk is called “target market analysis.” A 1980 Land Use Plan prepared by Bangor Investment Corporation, owner of Sears Island (“Land Use Plan”), includes a marketing study that identifies the four light-dry industries as those “that could best utilize the opportunities offered by the port facility, Sears Island, and the surrounding region, and, in turn, offer the most benefit to the existing region.” Land Use Plan at 24 (App. 548). In addition, a 1983 report prepared for the Town of Searsport by Mallar Development Services entitled “A Municipal Response Plan for the Industrial Development of Sears Island” (“Mallar Report”), targets the same four light-dry industries as good candidates for development on Sears Island. Thus, the agencies concluded that because the four light-dry industries are those that local officials and the Sears Island property owners are trying to attract to the industrial park, these industries are reasonably likely to develop on Sears Island. Mahady Supplemental Affidavit at ¶ 11.
Moreover, although the four light-dry industries do not require access to water, the information bеfore the agencies supports a conclusion that these four industries would benefit from close proximity to the port. The Mallar report observes that these industries would benefit from the transport cost savings associated with a centralized port, see Final EIS, Vol. II, 4-110 (App. 119), because they have significant import/export needs or potential, see, e.g., ERA Special Report at IV-5 to IV-6, IV-8 (App. 456-57, 459).
We conclude that it was not arbitrary and capricious for the agencies to include in the EIS discussion of secondary impacts the four light-dry industries targeted in the Mallar Report and the Land Use Plan.
*776
This conclusion is consistent with our statement in
Sierra Club I
that the Mallar Report and the Land Use Plan — the very reports that identify the four light-dry industries as those most likely to develop on Sears Island — “are detailed enough for an EIS to describe the
type
of development likely to occur, even if it is pointless to analyze precise details.”
Sierra Club I,
The conclusion in the EIS that “industries that do not require access to water” are likely to locate in Greater Bangor does not make the agenciеs’ decision to include the four light-dry industries in the EIS analysis of secondary impacts arbitrary and capricious. First, not all information in the administrative record must support the agency decision.
See Environmental Coalition of Broward County, Inc. v. Myers,
B.
Sierra Club argues next that the final EIS is inadequate because it repeatedly refers to Searsport as the future site of “heavy industry,” 1 yet the EIS secondary impact analysis assumes that only light-dry industry is likely to develop on Sears Island. For example, in several places the EIS refers to a 1978 report from the State of Maine Advisory Committee on Coastal Development and Conservation (“Advisory Report”) that recommends that heavy industry be clustered in either the Portland-South Portland area or the SearsportStockton Springs-Penobscot area. See, e.g., Final EIS, Vol I, 2-3 (App. 91). Moreover, a letter written by Leslie Stevens, Director of the Maine Development Office, states that the proposed Sears Island Industrial Park is intended for heavy industry that needs close proximity to a cargo terminal. See Final EIS, Vol. II, S-2 (App. 226).
The agencies provide two related explanations for their decision not to include the development of “heavy industry” as a reasonably foreseeable indirect effeсt of the port project. Mahady explains that a key factor in the selection of industries as “reasonably foreseeable” tenants of the industrial park was that “industries locating in the industrial parks had to be those which do not require substantial water and sewer capabilities in order to function,” because existing sewer and water facilities are limited. Mahady affidavit at ¶ 10 (citing Land Use Plan and Mallar Report). Thus, for Sears Island to accommodate heavy indus *777 try “major facility improvements would be required at considerable cost.” Id. Because these improvements were not part of the proposed port project, and because the state, county, town, and property owners were unlikely to make such improvements in view of their expense, the agencies concluded that heavy industry was unlikely to locate on Sears Island as a consequence of the port project. See id.
The use of the “target market analysis” also led the agencies to conclude that “heavy industry” was unlikely to develop on Sears Island as an indirect effect of the port project. As stated in Part VI(A), supra, the local officials and property owners have directed their marketing efforts toward light-dry industries — not heavy industry. Moreover, because of the environmental effects of heavy industry, the development of such industry on Sears Island would likely meet heavy public opposition. Mahady Affidavit at ¶¶ 9, 12.
In sum, the agencies decided that heavy industry was not likely to develop on Sears Island as a result of the port project, despite the Advisory Report’s recommendation that heavy industry be clustered in the same area as a cargo port facility, because the available water and sewer facilities on Sears Island are insufficient to support heavy industry, and because the project owners and the town are not directing their marketing efforts at heavy industry. We are satisfied that this decision is not unreasonable.
In the alternative, Sierra Club contends that the agencies’ conclusion that heavy industry is unlikely to loсate at Sears Island is a “substantial revision” to the final EIS requiring the preparation of a supplemental EIS. NEPA regulations mandate a supplemental EIS if one of two conditions is met:
(i) The agency makes substantial changes in the proposed action that are relevant to environmental concerns; or
(ii) There are significant new circumstances or information relevant to environmental concerns and bearing on the proposed action or its impacts.
40 C.F.R. § 1502.9(c);
see also Watt,
We can find nothing in the record to support Sierra Club’s assertion that “the purpose of the cargo terminal is to concentrate heavy industry at that location.” The 1978 Advisory Report recommends that heavy industry and port facilities be clustered together in two areas of the state in order “to ensure that more than 95% of Maine’s 3,000 mile coastline would be free of heavy industries and major port activities.” Final EIS, Vol. I, 2-3 (App. 91). It does not follow from this recommendation that the purpose of the port project is to induce heavy industry to locate on Sears Island. Nor does it follow from the agencies’ conclusion that heavy industry is unlikely to develop on Sears Island as a consequence of the port project that Maine has abandoned its clustering policy. Thus, there is no need to issue a supplementary EIS.
C.
Sierra Club claims that the development of water-dependent industry is a reasonably foreseeable indirect effect of the port project. See, e.g., Final EIS, Volume II, F-2 (App. 203) (“there are really two classes of industries likely to locate at or near the cargo port facility proposed for Searsport: [the first of which is] those industries engaged in intensive handling of waterbornе commerce which require direct proximity to the port facility, since greater distance from the port would add transportation costs which would make their operations infeasible_”).
Although Sierra Club does not identify what types of water-dependent industries it believes the EIS should have discussed, it does identify a 1987 study excerpted in the EIS that analyzes the water-dependent in *778 dustries that have developed at port projects comparable to the Searsport proposal. See Final EIS, Vol I, 4-149 to 4-151 (App. 158-60). The study found that auto processing, stevedoring, and chemical industries developed at Colonels Island, Georgia, and that industries involving bananas, phosphates, stevedoring, and ship repair developed at Port Manatee, Florida. See id. Sierra Club appears to contend that the EIS should have discussed these industries as reasonably foreseeable secondary impacts, or at the very least, discussed why they are not reasonably foreseeable.
The agencies respond that the EIS discusses industries that rely upon water commerce as a direct — rather than indirect— effect of the port project; therefore there is no reason to discuss these industries as secondary impacts. As support for their response, the agencies cite to
Sierra Club IV-D,
In
Sierra Club IV-D,
the district court observed that although the agencies had originally anticipated that forest product and food industries would locate facilities on Sears Island, the secondary impacts analysis does not discuss these industries. The court concluded, however, that the final EIS does not discuss the manufacturing of food and forest products because “primary manufacturing production facilities ... tend to be located in as close a proximity as possible to their raw materials.”
Sierra Club IV-D,
First, Sierra Club has not called our attention to any record that it made this argument in the district court. Neither the district court’s decision allowing Sierra Club’s motion for a preliminary injunction,
see Sierra Club IV-C,
Second, NEPA requires an EIS to evaluate only those secondary impacts that are reasonably foreseeable. We conclude that it was permissible for the agencies not to analyze other water-dependent industries, such as auto processing, petroleum, and cement, because the likelihood of these industries developing on Sears Island is too speculative to be reasonably foreseeable. The only evidence Sierra Club identifies (other than general statements to the effect that water-dependent industries are likely to develop) is the study of comparable ports around the United States. The fact that auto processing developed as an indirect effect of a port project in Georgia, for еxample, does not, without more, make the development of auto processing on Sears Island reasonably foreseeable.
*779 D.
Accordingly, we conclude that the agencies’ decision to restrict the EIS secondary impact analysis to the four light-dry industries is reasonable in light of the findings in the Mallar Report, the Land Use Plan, and the environmental and physical limitations of Sears Island. We observe that it does not matter whether we, or the district court, would have reached the same decision as the agencies. Our only role, and that of the district court, is to satisfy ourselves that the agencies have “made a reasoned decision based on [their] evaluation” of the information before them.
Oregon Natural Resources Council,
VII.
Conclusion
We conclude that the agencies’ decision to restrict the EIS analysis of secondary impacts to the four light-dry industries is permissible. In other words, the decision is not too unreasonable for the law to permit it to stand.
See Sierra Club I,
Affirmed. Costs to appellees.
Notes
. A report entitled "Where Should Heavy Industry Be Located in Central Maine" defines heavy industry as
a development characteristically employing equipment such as, but no (sic) limited to, smoke stacks, tanks, distillation or reaction columns, chemical processing equipment, scrubbing towers, pickling equipment, and waste treatment lagoons; which industry, although conceivably operable without polluting or otherwise causing a significant adverse environmental impact on the coastal are[a] (by, but not limited to, the likelihood of generation of glare, heat, noise, vibration, radiation, electromagnetic interference and obnoxious odors) has the potential to pollute or otherwise cause a significant adverse environmental impact.
Sierra Club IV-C,
