Sophia Trevino and her parents sued the United States for medical malpractice, pursuant to the Federal Tort Claims Act (FTCA), 28 U.S.C. §§ 1346(b), 2674, arising from the negligent treatment given to Sophia’s mother during Sophia’s birth. The government concedes liability but appeals the award of over $6.3 million in damages. We modify in part, reverse in part, and remand.
I.
FACTS AND PROCEEDINGS BELOW
On November 3, 1981, Rachael Trevino gave birth to Sophia at Madigan Army Medical Center in Tacoma, Washington (Madigan). During labor, Rachael suffered from a condition known as abruptio placentae, meaning that her placenta was partially detached from the uterine wall. The medical care that she received during labor did not take this condition into account. As a result, Sophia was born severely disabled. She has permanent brain damage, a form of cerebral palsy that involves all four extremities, and a seizure disorder. Evaluations by the University of Kansas Children’s Rehabilitation Unit (the Kansas team) and by the government’s expert witnesses suggest that Sophia will be mildly mentally retarded, but that she will be able to attend school and attain a fourth-grade level of reading and writing. Her emotional development should be normal. It is her set of physical disabilities, rather than her mental or emotional disabilities, that affect her the most. Experts assessed her gross motor skills as being at the level of a twelve-month-old child and her fine motor skills as being at the level of a twenty-four-month-old child. Although she probably will be able to walk unassisted at home, she will need crutches or a wheelchair outside the home. The Kansas team predicted that, with proper training and encouragement, Sophia will be able to function in a fairly independent manner. They contend that she probably will be able to work in a sheltered workshop setting and that she might even be able to work in the competitive market. The Trevinos contend that she will never be able to work in the competitive market. Her life expectancy is normal.
Sophia and her parents filed an FTCA action against the United States, alleging that Sophia’s injuries had been caused by the negligent treatment provided by Madigan. After a five-day bench trial, the district court entered a judgment for the plaintiffs. It awarded Sophia $2,000,000 in nonpecuniary damages and $3,932,504 in pecuniary damages, and it awarded her parents as a unit $200,000 for loss of love and companionship and $200,000 for injury to the parent-child relationship. The United States moved for a new trial or, in the alternative, for an amended judgment. The court denied the motion, and the United States appeals.
II.
DISCUSSION
A. Standard of Review
We review damage awards in FTCA cases for clear error.
Shaw v. Unit
*1515
ed States,
B. The Nonpecuniary Award to Sophia
The district court awarded Sophia $2.0 million for her pain and suffering and her mental anguish.
See
Record Excerpt (R.E.) at 14. The government contends that this award is excessive in light of
Shaw v. United States,
Washington law permits damages for mental anguish and for pain and suffering.
See Shaw,
In Shaw, Scotty Shaw was injured by the negligent obstetrical care that his mother received. His injuries included “spastic quadraparesis, blindness, a seizure disorder, and profound mental and physical retardation.” Id. at 1204. The district court awarded $5.0 million in nonpecuniary damages. We reduced the award to $1.0 million after noting, first, that the highest reported verdict for medical malpractice at that time was $1.1 million, id. at 1209, and second, that Scotty had not been left wholly incapable of feeling and perceiving life, see id.
It may be true that medical malpractice awards in Washington have increased much beyond the $1.1 million noted in
Shaw. Cf. Bingaman v. Grays Harbor Community Hosp.,
C. The Nonpecuniary Award to Sophia's Parents
As already pointed out, the district court awarded Sophia’s parents as a unit $200,000 for the loss of her love and companionship and $200,000 for the injury to the parent-child relationship, a total amount of $400,000. See R.E. at 13. The government argues that this award, too, is *1516 excessive. We agree. The award shocks our sense of sound judgment also.
An award for loss of love and companionship is analyzed separately from an award for injury to the parent-child relationship. Under Washington law,
[rjecovery for loss of companionship compensates the parents for the value of the child’s mutual society and protection. Damages for destruction of the parent-child relationship are intended to alleviate parental grief, mental anguish, and suffering.
Shaw,
D. Attendant Care for Sophia The district court awarded $1,757,667 in lifetime attendant care for Sophia. See R.E. at 13. The government contends that this award is clearly erroneous on two grounds: first, because the court improperly permitted an unqualified witness to testify as an expert, and second, because the award itself was clearly erroneous in light of the record as a whole.
The government’s first argument must fail. “[I]n civil actions and proceedings, with respect to an element of a claim or defense as to which State law supplies the rule of decision, the competency of a witness shall be determined in accordance with State law.” Fed.R.Evid. 601. Washington grants broad discretion to the trial judge in ruling on the competence of expert witnesses.
See Balmer v. Dilley,
The government’s second argument, however, is persuasive. Viewing the record as a whole, the district court’s award of attendant care was clearly erroneous. Behrhorst’s training was spotty at best; her examination of Sophia was cursory; her conclusions were not well-founded. See 2 R.T. at 107-25. For example, after noting that Sophia could ride a tricycle, Behrhorst dismissed that accomplishment, saying that “[t]he fact that she can ride the bicycle, or tricycle, doesn’t have any bearing on whether she can feed herself, and dress herself, and toliet [sic] herself.” Id. at 115. Behrhorst also contends that Sophia, when working, will need ten hours of bilingual attendant care a day. Id. at 118-20. The government’s expert witness, Marianne Taylor, is the Director of Training and Nursing for the University of Kansas Children’s Rehabilitation Unit. 4 R.T. at 43. She has evaluated between 700 and 1000 handicapped children, with approximately 200 of those children having “mixed” handicaps. Id. at 43-44. Taylor, after observing and evaluating Sophia, contended that constant attendant care would be harmful; such care would foster dependence. Id. at 49, 51-52. She compared Sophia’s condition with the condition of a child who would normally receive ten hours of attendant care a day. The latter type of child, Taylor pointed out, would “not even [be] able to hold their [sic] head up, or roll over independently, is not able to assist at all in feeding [himself], and may in fact *1517 need to be fed by a tube.” Id. at 52-53. The district court’s grant of attendant care is wholly unsupported by the record. It shocks our sense of sound judgment. We eliminate this award entirely.
E. The Pecuniary Award to Sophia
1. Choice of a Discount Rate
The district court applied a —2% discount rate to the pecuniary component of the damage award. It explained its reason for this choice as follows:
The —2% discount rate was determined by the application of a set formula which assumes as [sic] constant relationship between inflation and discount rates. The differential between the growth rates and the tax-free rate of return has been stable and has averaged more than two percentage points during the 30-year period 1954-1984. To obtain the present value of economic loss using tax-free short-term interest as the appropriate discount rate, a net discount rate of —2% was applied (wage and cost increases exceed tax-free interest rates by 2%) and calculated [with] the amounts testified to by the economic expert, Dr. Lowell Bassett.
R.E. at 14. We hold that the district court abused its discretion in applying a negative discount rate to the estimated pecuniary losses. Such a rate relies on assumptions not generally accepted by the courts or economists.
The Supreme Court addressed the discount rate issue in its opinion in
Jones & Laughlin Steel Corp. v. Pfeifer,
We begin by recognizing that awards based on income streams spread over time are usually discounted to present value to account for the fact that a plaintiff, by receiving the money in a lump sum, “up front,” will invest the sum and earn additional income from the investment.
See Pfeifer,
Yields on treasury bonds have stayed slightly ahead of the rate of inflation during the past 32 years [1947-78] (4.4 percent vs. 3.6 percent). This means that the real return on treasury bonds was 0.8 percent.
Sherman, Projection of Economic Loss: Inflation v. Present Value, 14 Creighton L.Rev. 723, 732 (1981).
Obviously it is possible for the true rate of inflation to outstrip the return on the safest investments for some period of time. This would justify for that period of time a *1518 negative discount rate. The district court’s use of a negative discount rate is based on this possibility.
The district court’s choice is flawed, however. First, it relied on an unrepresentative timespan. That period was from 1954 to 1984. R.E. at 14. This span includes the aberrational years 1974-82: years in which oil prices tripled from 1974 to 1979, inflation reached double-digit proportions, and “[rjecessions in 1974, 1975, 1980, and 1982 mark[ed] the 1974-82 period as the most recession-plagued nine years since the Great Depression.” Formuzis & Pickers-gill, Present Value of Economic Loss, Trial, Feb. 1985, at 22, 23. As one article summarized the state of the economy for the past thirty-five years or so,
In addition to the upward trend in inflation and interest rates evident in most of the post-1947 period, there has been an increase in the variability about the trend. Between 1947 and 1967, the average yearly inflation rate was 2 percent, and the range between the high and low values was 4.6 percent. For interest rates on long-term government securities, the corresponding figures were 3.37 average and a range of 2.6 percent. In the following sixteen-year period, however, the average figures for inflation and interest rates were 7.27 percent and 7.93 percent while the ranges were 10.5 percent and 7.62 percent respectively. In fact, the interest rate on ten-year government bonds fluctuated nearly as much in 1981 alone as it did for the entire period 1947 to 1967. This volatility indicates that forecasters have had a more difficult assignment in recent years and that forecast errors, which have been large in recent years, can be expected to remain that way.
Mead, Calculating Present Value, Trial, July 1984, at 16, 18. The truth of this observation is borne out when one examines the period 1926-1981, in which the average annual inflation rate was around 3 percent. R. Ibbotson & R. Sinquefield, Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation 15 (1982 ed.).
We cannot deny history, nor can history provide an always reliable basis for predicting the future. However, we can base our estimates on long time periods that will diminish the effect of shorter aberrational periods. Fluctuations that are great for a short time span are less dramatic, and skew results less, when they are seen as part of a longer period. We have no confidence in the ability of experts, the district court, or this court, to predict inflation or interest rates over the period of Sophia’s life other than by extrapolating from the past.
The district court must also select an accurate measure of historical inflation as the basis for its prediction of future inflation. Here, the district court used the historical increase in wages and medical costs. Supplemental Record Excerpts at 48. But this gives the illusion of greater inflation, because some portion of wage increases is not due to inflation:
Because the growth rate of wages includes a component attributable to pay increases due to increased education, age and maturity, and increases in productivity, as well as a component attributable to inflation, the difference between the interest rate on a secure investment and the rate of growth of wages understates the real interest rate by whatever proportion of the growth rate of wages is not attributable to inflation.
Sauers v. Alaska Barge & Transp., Inc.,
Pfeifer’s
discussion of discount rates technically is only an interpretation of section 5(b) of the Longshoremen’s and Harbor Workers’ Compensation Act (LHWCA).
See
1. Calculate the lost income stream by excluding the effects of inflation and the “real” interest rate by fixing the difference between the market rate of interest and the anticipated rate of inflation, id. at 541-42, 548,103 S.Ct. at 2552-53, 2556 ;
2. Calculate the size of the lost income stream by including the effects of inflation and discounting by the market interest rate, id. at 543, 547-48,103 S.Ct. at 2555-56 ; and,
3. Calculate the value of pecuniary damages by employing a zero discount rate (the total offset approach), id. at 544-46, 549-50,103 S.Ct. 2554 -55, 2556-57.
The last option (the total offset approach) was considered unacceptable as a uniform method to calculate damages, although it could be stipulated to by the parties, or applied by the trial court in an appropriate case.
See id.
at 550-51,
We do not hold, however, that any discount rate above 3% or below 1% is impermissible. Supported by credible expert testimony, a court could certainly adopt a different rate.
Cf Culver v. Slater Boat Co. (Culver II),
Finally, we point out that the choice of an interest rate yield on Sophia’s lump sum award, or for other purposes in fixing the final amount of the award for the loss of earning capacity, is not dictated by the manner in which taxes are treated. The yield of tax-free securities enjoys no special status. That yield merely indicates what a yield would be to an investor who is strongly averse to both risk and taxes. No sensible investment counselor would advise Sophia to invest the entire lump sum in tax-free securities. Nor is it probable that she will do so. For these reasons the use of the yield of tax-free securities to arrive at the “real rate” of interest is suspect. The tax-free rate of interest is substantially below that yielded by securities not enjoying that privilege. Its use, when coupled with a period of unrepresentative high inflation, as was done in this case, yields an unnaturally low discount rate. This should be avoided on remand.
2. Treatment of Taxes
The necessity to treat inflation consistently in fixing the size of the future income stream and the proper discount rate suggests a somewhat similar problem in connection with taxes. Sophia’s economist made certain adjustments in his calculations with respect to taxes that would have been imposed on Sophia’s earnings had she not been injured and taxes that would be paid with respect to the earnings the lump sum would earn. The purpose of these adjustments was to make certain that Sophia did receive after taxes in the future what she would have received after taxes had she not been injured.
These adjustments must be consistent. That is, if Sophia’s future earnings are reduced by taxes, as is permitted by
Norfolk & Western Railway Co. v. Liepelt,
F. Conclusion
The award of $2.0 million to Sophia for her nonpecuniary damages is reduced to $1.0 million. The award of $200,000 to Sophia’s parents as a unit on each of two grounds — for loss of love and companionship and for injury to the parent-child relationship — is reduced to $50,000 per ground, a total of $100,000. The award of $1,757,-667 for Sophia’s attendant care is eliminated. We remand for the recalculation of Sophia’s pecuniary loss in accordance with the Part II.E of this opinion.
MODIFIED IN PART, REVERSED IN PART, AND REMANDED.
Notes
. The reason that risk-free investments are preferred to more remunerative but riskier investments is that the plaintiff should not be faced with the burden of becoming a full-time broker merely to safeguard his award.
