Petitioner-Appellant Arthur Donnell Miller, Jr. (“Miller”) appeals the district court’s order denying his petition for habeas corpus pursuant to 28 U.S.C. § 2254. Specifically, Miller challenges the district court’s finding that he was not prejudiced by his attorney’s ineffective assistance in advising him to plead guilty to a second-degree murder charge in Oklahoma state court without advising him of the proper elements of that offense. We hold that when a defendant alleges that his attorney’s ineffective assistance led him to plead guilty, the test for prejudice is whether he can show that he would not have pled guilty had his attorney performed in a constitutionally adequate man *1069 ner. It is not necessary for the defendant to show that he actually would have prevailed at trial, although the strength of the government’s case against the defendant should be considered in evaluating whether the defendant really would have gone to trial if he had received adequate advice from his counsel. Applying this standard in light of the factual determinations made by the district court below, we AFFIRM.
I. BACKGROUND
The facts surrounding Miller’s petition are essentially undisputеd. Miller and his nephew, Todd O’Shea Coburn, were both charged with first-degree murder in Kay County, Oklahoma for the May 6, 1995, shooting death of Dominic Hamilton. Hamilton died of a single gunshot wound which entered his back and exited through his chest.
On the day of the shooting, Miller attended a family fish-fry at his father’s home in Ponca City, Oklahoma. Miller, an alcoholic, drank heavily during the course of the day. Eventually, Miller, his wife Pam and brother Donald Ray went to a club known as “the Bucket .” Miller encountered Hamilton, a long-term acquaintance, on the club’s porch and began making jokes about Hamilton’s weight. Hamilton took offense, and a fight ensued.
Miller’s brother, Donald Ray Miller (“Donald Ray”), went for help, and Miller later told police that he was attacked, hit with a baseball bat, and cut with a knife in his brother’s absence. A short time later, Donald Ray returned with Miller’s sister, Rose Hodge Burgess (“Burgess”); Miller’s nephew, Coburn, arrived soon thereafter with a .38 caliber semi-automatic pistol. Miller and his family members soon spotted Hamilton and two additional men, Ty Jones (“Jones”) and Napoleon Elston (“El-ston”), approaching with baseball bats. Jones threw a bat that narrowly missed Burgess, and Miller then took Coburn’s gun. At this point, an onlooker shouted a warning that Miller had a gun, and everyone present, including Hamilton, turned to run. Miller fired once in the air, and then fired two more shots in the direction of Hamilton. Hamilton dropped to the ground in a vacant lot across from the Bucket. The shooting occurred approximately ten minutes after Miller was first attacked.
Miller turned himself in to the Ponca City Police Department approximately three hours after the shooting and gave a statement to Police Lieutenant Barbara White. Lt. White testified thаt she confronted Miller with witness statements placing him at the scene with a gun and identifying him as the shooter, and that Miller confessed to killing Hamilton, alleging that he fired in self-defense.
Lt. White testified that she examined Miller, found no physical evidence that he had been hit with a bat, and concluded that wounds he attributed to a knife attack were minor. A second officer who observed Miller that night agreed. Witness statements given to police also undermined Miller’s claim that he acted in self-defense. Witnesses told police that Hamilton was moving away from Miller and that hе was at least twenty feet from Miller at the time of the shooting. Further, an autopsy report concluded that Hamilton was shot in the back from some distance away.
Miller and Coburn were both charged with first-degree malice murder. The trial court appointed Rob Galbraith, an attorney in private practice, to represent Miller. Galbraith testified that he conducted no formal investigation into the shooting, but said that he instead relied on Miller’s description of the incident and that he had intended to use a preliminary hearing for discovery purposеs. Midway through the hearing, however, Galbraith learned that Coburn had reached a plea agreement with the State and most likely would testi *1070 fy against Miller. A short time later, he advised Miller to accept the state’s offer of second-degree murder with a recommended sentence of thirty-eight years. Galbraith did not inform Miller of the elements of second-degree murder. Rather, he told Miller that second-degree murder did not really fit the facts of the case, but he advised Miller that the plea represented Miller’s best chance to avoid a life sentеnce. Galbraith predicted that Miller would probably be convicted of first-degree murder and receive a life sentence if he were to go to trial. Miller accepted Galbraith’s advice, pled guilty to second-degree murder, and received a thirty-eight-year sentence.
After exhausting state post-conviction remedies, 1 Miller filed the instant petition for habeas corpus under 28 U.S.C. § 2254, alleging that Galbraith was ineffective for failing to inform him of the elements of second-degree murder. Specifically, Miller alleges that, had he known that a prosecutor is required to prove the defendant acted with a “depraved mind” in order to secure a conviction for second-degree murder, Miller would not have pled guilty and instead would have exercised his right to trial by jury. 2
The district court initially denied the petition on the ground that Miller failed to allege facts constituting inadequate perfor-manee by Galbraith.
See Miller v. Champion,
II. DISCUSSION
We have jurisdiction over this appeal pursuant to 28 U.S.C. § 2253 and the district court’s grant of Miller’s request for a Certificate of Appealability. Claims of ineffective assistance of counsel raise mixed questions of law and fact.
See, e.g., Hale v. Gibson,
This case presents two issues for appeal. First, we consider whether the magistrate and district court erred by apparently requiring Miller to prove that Galbraith would have prevailed at trial in addition to proving that he would have changed his plea and would have insisted on going to trial. 4 Next, we review the district court’s faсtual conclusions to determine whether Miller is entitled to habeas relief under the correct standard for demonstrating prejudice.
A. Standard for Shoiving Prejudice
The Supreme Court established the now familiar two-pronged test for proving ineffective assistance of counsel in
Strickland v. Washington,
One year after deciding
Strickland,
in
Hill v. Lockhart,
In many guilty plea cases, the “prejudice” inquiry will closely resemble the inquiry engaged in by courts reviewing ineffective-assistance challenges to convictions obtained through a trial. For example, where the alleged error of counsel is a failure to investigate or discover exculpatory evidence, the determination whether the error “prejudiced” the defendant by causing him to plead guilty rather than go to trial will depend on the likelihood that discovery of the evidence would have led counsel to change his recommendation as to the plea. This assessment, in turn, will depend in large part on a prediction whether the evidence likely tuould have changed the outcome of the trial.
Id.
at 59,
This court has therefore held that a petitioner’s “mere allegation” that he would have insisted on trial but for his counsel’s errors, although necessary, is ultimately insufficient to entitle him to relief.
See United States v. Gordon,
The first issue before us is whether the district court correctly applied the prejudice inquiry set forth in Lockhart to the facts of this case. Miller asserts that, in addition to requiring him to prove that a reasonable probability existed that he would have gone to trial, the district court erroneously required him to show a reasonable probability that he would have actually prevailed at trial had he done so. The district court, responding to Miller’s objections to the magistrate’s report and recommendation, made the following comments before denying Miller’s petition:
[P]etitioner challenges Judge Argo’s analysis that petitioner would not have been acquitted at trial on the charge of second degree murder. Rather, petitioner contends that he need only prove he would have insisted on going to trial had he been advised of the elements of second-degree murder. Moreover, petitioner challenges Judge Argo’s credibility determination.
Petitioner’s legal argument is merit-lеss. The Tenth Circuit Court of Appeals clearly held in Miller v. Champion, supra,161 F.3d at 1256-57 , that petitioner must show that “had he rejected the State’s plea bargain, the out *1073 come of the proceedings ‘likely would have changed.’ ” The circuit noted that such proof requires a showing of a likelihood “a jury would have acquitted him of second-degree murder.” Thus, Judge Argo’s legal analysis was proper.
This language suggests that the district court believed Miller was not entitled to habeas relief unless he established a reasonable probability both that he would have gone to trial and that he wоuld have successfully prevailed in his case to a jury.
Despite the fact that this language imposes an additional burden beyond that contemplated by the Supreme Court’s decision in
Lockhart,
the State contends that the Tenth Circuit endorsed the district court’s approach both in
Miller I
and in
Braun v. Ward,
Braun v. Ward
picked up on some of the more expansive language in
Miller I
and, like the district court below, concluded that a petitioner must show a reasonable probability exists that he would have prevailed had he gone to trial.
See
To the extent that this language in
Braun
is inconsistent with our prior cases interpreting
Lockhart,
we are, of course, bound by our earlier rulings.
See, e.g., United States v. Gray,
In addition, we note that the statement in
Braun
that a petitioner must prove he would have prevailed at trial was unnecessary to the opinion in that case. The issue before the court was only whether, under AEDPA standards of review, the Oklahoma Court of Criminal Appeals had used a correct standard for determining prejudice.
See Braun v. State,
Finally, while other circuits have considered the strength of the prosecution’s case as circumstantial evidence of whether a petitioner would have changed his plea, and therefore whether he was prejudiced, none has held a petitioner must show that the сase would likely have failed had it gone to trial.
See, e.g., Weeks v. Snyder,
Accordingly, in light of the Supreme Court’s opinion in
Lockhart,
our own precedent concerning prejudice in the context of a guilty plea, and the overwhelming weight of authority among the other federal circuits, we hold the district court erred by requiring Miller to prove a reasonable probability existed not only that he would have insisted on trial but for his counsel’s mistakes, but also that there was a likelihood that he would have prevailed at trial. Of course, the “assessment [of whether the defendant would have insisted on changing his plеa] will depend in
*1075
large part on a prediction whether the evidence likely would have changed the outcome of the trial,”
Hill v. Lockhart,
B. Evidence of Prejudice
In spite of the district court’s error in interpreting the standard for showing prejudice, we hold that Miller is not entitled to habeas corpus relief. The district court adopted the magistrate court’s finding that the evidence against Miller would probably have led a jury to convict him on charges of first-degree murder, and thus even if Miller had been informed of the elements of second-degree murder it was highly unlikely he would have risked a lengthier sentence by facing a jury on the first-degree charges.
The district court’s decision was supported by the record and was not clearly erroneous. To begin, the record shows that Miller’s plea was based on his belief that he would likely receive a more lenient sentence if he were to plead guilty to second-degree murder than if he were to proceed to trial, and thus the district court rationally inferred that the precise elements of second-degree murder were not material to Miller in making his plea.
Moreover, the district court properly considered the strength of the state’s case against Miller as evidence of whether he would have changed his plea. All of the witness statements — including those by Miller’s own family and Miller himself— indicate that Miller shot and killed Hamilton after their altercation at the Bucket. Although Miller argues that he could have raised viable defenses at trial, we agree with the district court’s findings to the contrary.
Miller asserted to the district court that he would have gone to trial in spite of the evidence against him, arguing that he shot Hamilton in self-defense, or, in the alternative, that his level of culpability would at most have supported a conviction for first-degree manslaughter. The district court found that Miller lacked credibility in light of the weakness of the evidence supporting both arguments. The district court found Miller’s own testimony in support of his self-defense argument was not believable. During his interview with Lt. White, Miller stated he shot Hamilton in the chest after Hamilton attacked him a second time and cut him with a knife. In his testimony to the district сourt, however, Miller stated both that he did not remember shooting Hamilton at all, and that he meant to fire only at Hamilton’s legs but that Hamilton ducked and was thus struck in the chest. Furthermore, contrary to Miller’s statement to the police, the evidence demonstrated that Hamilton was at least twenty feet from Miller when he was killed, that he was armed with only a baseball bat or knife (compared with Miller’s gun), and that Miller was walking toward Hamilton and simultaneously firing while Hamilton ran in the opposite direction. Likewise, the autopsy report indicated that Hamilton was shot in the back from a distance. Finally, Miller’s story is undercut by officers who interviewed him after the shooting and who failed to locate injuries other than “a couple of scratches” to corroborate Miller’s story that he had been attacked.
The district court also rejected Miller’s assertion that he might have argued that his actions would have merited at most a conviction for the lesser offense of first-degree manslaughter. The district court found his representation lacked credibility because Miller most likely could not have established all of the еlements of the lesser offense. Oklahoma defines first-degree manslaughter as a homicide “perpetrated without a design to effect death, and
*1076
in a heat of passion, but in a cruel and unusual manner, or by means of a dangerous weapon.” Okla. Stat. Ann. tit. 21, § 711(2). In order to establish “heat of passion” manslaughter, the defendant must show: “1) adequate provocation; 2) passion or emotion such as anger, rage, fear, or terror; 3) a homicide occurring during a state of passion; and 4) the existence of a causal connection betweеn the provocation, passion and homicide.”
Bryson v. Ward,
Finally, the district court considеred and rejected Miller’s assertion that he was too intoxicated to form the requisite intent to commit first-degree murder. While conceding the facts might have supported this defense, the district court noted that Galbraith himself considered this defense and rejected it because juries are seldom sympathetic to defendants on the basis of claims of voluntary intoxication. Moreover, while the evidence shows that Miller was drinking throughout the day, the district court found that the evidence was not sufficient to show that Miller was “ ‘totally unable to form an intent to kill,’ as is required to constitute a defense to murder in the first degree under Oklahoma law.” Oklahoma Uniform Jury Instruction— Criminal 2d 8-36;
Crawford v. State,
All of the foregoing evidence is supported by the record, and we therefore hold that the district court’s determination that Miller would not have gone to trial but for Galbraith’s mistakes was not clearly erroneous.
III. CONCLUSION
We conclude that the district court erred in requiring Miller to show a reasonable probability that he would have prevailed at trial but for his counsel’s mistakes. Nevertheless, the district court’s conclusion that Miller still would have accepted the plea bargain offered to him even if he had been informed of the “depraved mind” element of second-degree murder was supported by the record and was not clearly erroneous. Therefore, we AFFIRM the *1077 district court’s denial of Miller’s habeas petition.
Notes
. Miller's claim of ineffective assistance of counsel was technically not exhausted at the state level. However, in Miller's first appeal of the federal district court's denial of his petition, we held that Oklahoma's procedural bar does not provide an adequate state law basis upon which to deny relief in this case. See
Miller v. Champion,
. Miller's counsel in the present aрpeal suggested that we could reverse because Galbraith’s advice was tainted by his failure to investigate the crime and because certain unspecified exculpatory information may not have been disclosed. We disagree. First, even a liberal reading of Miller's original pro se habeas petition does not raise this issue. Moreover, this issue exceeds the limited scope of our remand to the district court.
See Miller v. Champion,
.The magistrate said:
I don’t think I have to take Mr. Miller’s subjective statements that he would have *1071 insisted on going to trial had he been informed of the elements of second degree murder. I think it's an objective test and I look at all of the facts and circumstances, including whether or not there would have been a reasonable probability that he would bе acquitted had he insisted on going to trial.
His credibility will be a key issue and I will be assessing his credibility as far as whether or not he would have insisted on going to trial.
. The magistrate's report and the district court's opinion discussed both the likelihood that Miller would have changed his plea and the likelihood that Miller would have been acquitted had he gone to trial. It is a bit unclear whether these were offered as alternative grounds for the district court's finding that Miller was not prejudiced, or whether the magistrate and the district court required Miller to prove both that he would have pled not guilty and that he would have been acquitted had he done so. For purposes of this appeal, we will accept Miller’s interpretation of the magistrate and district court’s ruling, which assumes that they required proof of both in order for Miller to show he was prejudiced by his counsel's ineffective performance.
. The
Braun
court also stated: "[t]he petitioner must show that his counsel's performance prejudiced him by demonstrating (1) that ‘there is a reasonable probability that, but for counsel’s errors, he would not have pleaded guilty and would have insisted on going to trial' " ... and (2) that had he rejected the State's plea bargain, the outcome of the proceedings "likely would have changed."
Braun,
