OPINION
This appeal arises from the denial of class certification in a securities fraud class action. John Malack purchased notes issued by American Business Financial Services, Inc. (“American Business”), a subprime mortgage originator, and those notes were later rendered worthless during the subprime mortgage meltdown. He now seeks compensation from BDO Seidman LLP (“BDO”), an accounting firm that assisted American Business in allegedly defrauding him and other investors by providing American Business clean audit opinions that were used to register the notes with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). Malack filed a putative securities fraud class action against BDO based on § 10(b) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 1 and Rule 10b-5. 2 *745 The District Court denied class certification, holding that Malack did not satisfy the predominance requirement of Rule 23(b)(3) 3 because he did not establish a presumption of reliance under the fraud-created-the-market theory. 4 Malack now appeals the denial of class certification.
This case turns on the application vel non of the fraud-created-the-market theory of reliance. Without the presumption of reliance afforded by that theory, Malack cannot receive class certification. The theory’s validity is an issue of first impression for this Court, and other Courts of Appeals are split over whether it should be recognized. We join the Seventh Circuit in rejecting the theory and will affirm the District Court’s denial of class certification.
I.
The District Court had jurisdiction under 15 U.S.C. § 78aa and 28 U.S.C. § 1331. This appeal reaches us under 28 U.S.C. § 1292(e) and Rule 23(f). A district court’s decision on class certification is reviewed for an abuse of discretion.
In re Hydrogen Peroxide Antitrust Litig.,
II.
Malack and other investors directly purchased notes from American Business between October 3, 2002, and January 20, 2005. The notes promised to pay interest well above the prime rate without the involvement of underwriters or brokers, were non-transferrable, could only be cashed in after they matured, and had no market for resale. The notes were issued pursuant to American Business’s 2002 and 2003 registration statements and prospectuses filed with the SEC. BDO provided the audit opinions necessary to complete the filings with the SEC.
On January 21, 2005, American Business filed a Chapter 11 petition for reorganization. On May 17, 2005, that proceeding was converted to a Chapter 7 liquidation. Malack and the other investors suffered substantial losses as a result. On February 15, 2008, Malack filed a putative securities fraud class action against BDO, alleging that its audits of American Business were deficient. According to Malack, had BDO done its job properly, it would not have issued American Business clean audit opinions. Malack further alleges that without clean audit opinions, American Business would not have been able to register the notes with the SEC, the notes would not have been marketable, and Ma-lack and the other investors would not have purchased the notes. Based on these allegations, Malack asserted that BDO violated § 10(b) of the 1934 Act and Rule 10b-5.
*746 Malack sought class certification. The District Court, after a thorough analysis of the possible approaches through which Malack might have obtained a presumption of reasonable reliance based on the fraud-created-the-market theory, denied his request, concluding that the proposed class did not satisfy the predominance requirement of Rule 23. 5 Malack timely petitioned for permission to appeal under Rule 23(f)- We granted that petition and now must consider whether the District Court erred in denying Malack class certification.
III.
Malack challenges the District Court’s predominance determination.
Predominance “tests whether proposed classes are sufficiently cohesive to warrant adjudication by representation [....]” “Issues common to the class must predominate over individual issues .... ” Because the “nature of the evidence that will suffice to resolve a question determines whether the question is common or individual,” “ ‘a district court must formulate some prediction as to how specific issues will play out in order to determine whether common or individual issues predominate in a given ease[.]’ ” “If proof of the essential elements of the cause of action requires individual treatment, then class certification is unsuitable.”
In re Hydrogen Peroxide Antitrust Litig.,
A § 10(b) private damages action has six elements:
(1) a material misrepresentation (or omission);
(2) scienter, i.e., a wrongful state of mind;
(3) a connection with the purchase or sale of a security;
(4) reliance, often referred to in cases involving public securities markets (fraud-on-the-market cases) as “transaction causation”;
(5) economic loss; and
(6) “loss causation,” i.e., a causal connection between the material misrepresentation and the loss.
McCabe v. Ernst & Young, LLP,
A.
The Supreme Court has held that a presumption of reliance exists in two circumstances. The first means for establishing a presumption of reliance was set forth in
Affiliated Ute Citizens of Utah v. United States,
Second, in
Basic Inc. v. Levinson,
“The fraud on the market theory is based on the hypothesis that, in an open and developed securities market, the price of a company’s stock is determined by the available material information regarding the company and its business. ... Misleading statements will therefore defraud purchasers of stock even if the purchasers do not directly rely on the misstatements.... The causal connection between the defendants’ fraud and the plaintiffs’ purchase of stock in such a case is no less significant than in a case of direct reliance on misrepresentations.”
Id.
at 241-42,
Some Courts of Appeals have held that a presumption of reliance may be established through a third theory—the fraud-created-the-market theory.
Compare, e.g., Shores v. Sklar,
B.
The fraud-created-the-market theory posits that “[t]he securities laws allow an investor to rely on the integrity of the market to the extent that the securities it offers to him for purchase are entitled to be in the market place.”
Shores,
If [the plaintiff] proves no more than that the [securities] would have been offered at a lower price or a higher rate, rather than that they would never have been issued or marketed, he cannot recover. ... Th[e] theory is not that [the plaintiff] bought inferior [securities], but that the [securities] he bought were fraudulently marketed.
Shores,
“[Un]marketability, as envisioned by the
Shores
court, is an elusive concept.”
Ross v. Bank South, N.A., 885
F.2d 723, 735 (11th Cir.1989) (en banc) (Tjoflat, J., concurring). Three rough categories of unmarketability have emerged: legal, economic, and factual. The lines distinguishing one from the other are hazy. Legal unmarketability asks “if, absent fraud, a regulatory agency .or the issuing municipality would have been required by law to prevent or forbid the issuance of the security.”
Ockerman v. May Zima & Co.,
*749 IV.
Malack asks us to embrace the legal unmarketability approach to the fraud-created-the-market theory. No matter what approach is taken, however, the theory lacks a basis in any of the accepted grounds for creating a presumption.
“Presumptions typically serve to assist courts in managing circumstances in which direct proof, for one reason or another, is rendered difficult.”
Basic Inc.,
The fraud-created-the-market theory rests on the conjecture that a “[security’s] availability on the market [i]s an indication of [its] apparent genuineness[.]”
Shores,
A.
“Common sense,” to the extent Malack invokes it as support, calls for rejecting the proposition that a security’s availability on the market is an indication of its genuineness and is worthy of an investor’s reliance. For a security’s availability on the market to be an indication of its genuineness there must be some entity involved in the process of taking the security to market that acts as a bulwark against fraud. Yet the entities most commonly involved in bringing a security to market do not imbue the security with any guarantee against fraud.
The security’s promoter and other entities involved in the issuance, such as the underwriter, the auditor, and legal counsel—the very entities often charged with fraud—cannot be reasonably relied upon to prevent fraud.
Ross,
All of the parties involved in an issuance have a significant self-interest in marketing the securities at a price greater than their true value. The promot *750 er/corporation and the issuer (if a separate entity) have an obvious interest in marketing the securities regardless of their true fair market value. Likewise, the [legal] counsel and underwriter, who are often retained under a contingency fee contract, are interested in marketing the securities at an inflated price. The underwriter in particular, who, like an insurer, can spread the risk of loss among many stock or bond subscriptions, has a reduced incentive to investigate thoroughly the true value of the securities it underwrites.
Id. at 740. If we were to credit the fraud-created-the-market theory based on the entities involved in the issuance “we [would have to] believe that an initial investor may reasonably rely on clearly self-interested (perhaps dishonest) parties to make decisions that are at least burdensome and at most economically irrational.” Id. 7 Such a belief runs counter to common sense.
The SEC likewise cannot be reasonably relied upon to prevent fraud because it does not conduct “merit regulation.” Rather, it seeks to confirm that the issuer adequately disclosed information pertaining to the security:
The SEC does not review the merits of the registration statement and the offering. [I]n reviewing 1933 Act registration statements, as is the case with SEC review of filings generally, the focus is on the adequacy and clarity of the disclosure. Specifically, the SEC will consider whether the applicable disclosure items are explained in sufficient detail and with sufficient clarity. In addition to the review of the adequacy of the disclosures, the SEC will examine clarity and also will conduct a “plain English” review of those portions of the registration statement that are subject to the SEC’s plain English disclosure requirements.
1 Thomas Lee Hazen,
Treatise on the Law of Securities Regulation
§ 3.7[2], “The SEC does not read all of the publicly available information about an offering and then determine the legitimate price for the security ... [n]or does [it] endorse any of the documents involved in the issuance of securities.”
Joseph v. Wiles,
Disclosure of adverse information may lower the price of a security, but it will not prevent that security from going to market:
The existence of a security does not depend on, or warrant, the adequacy of *751 disclosure. Many a security is on the market even though the issuer or some third party made incomplete disclosures. Federal securities law does not include “merit regulation.” Full disclosure of adverse information may lower the price, but it does not exclude the security from the market. Securities of bankrupt corporations trade freely; some markets specialize in penny stocks. Thus the linchpin of Shores—that disclosing bad information keeps securities off the market, entitling investors to rely on the presence of the securities just as they would rely on statements in a prospectus—is simply false.
Eckstein,
Malack all but outright concedes that there is no common sense justification for the proposition that a security’s presence on the market is an indication of its genuineness upon which an investor may reasonably rely. In his brief, he conceded that the SEC does not conduct merit regulation. At oral argument, he agreed that even if BDO had not committed the alleged fraud, the notes still would have passed SEC review and would have made it to market:
THE COURT: What if [BDO] had said in all candor, well, the company here, [American Business], is using a discount rate that may be lower than what the market among similar [interest-only strips] that are being ... sold across this country would indicate. And in fact, they may be understating their default rate in comparison to similarly situated issues. But having said that, these are the facts which a buyer should be aware of. And this is, indeed, a risky investment which pays a high interest rate.
THE COURT: The SEC would’ve said accepted, go ahead and sell.
[MALACK’S COUNSEL]: Certainly, if that disclosure had been provided in the prospectus in the registration statement!.]
Oral Argument Tr. 9:7-9:24, June 23, 2010. If the American Business notes would have gone to market with or without BDO’s allegedly fraudulent audit, then there is no common sense connection between BDO’s audit and Malack’s ability to purchase the notes. Thus, there is no reason to view the notes’ presence on the market as being indicative of their genuineness.
B.
Malack’s vague invocation of probability also fails to lend any support to the assertion that a security’s availability on the market is an indication of its genuineness. Unlike the fraud-on-the-market theory, which was supported by empirical studies and economic theory,
see Basic Inc.,
The establishment of investor insurance is contrary to the goals of securities laws.
See Basic Inc.,
Because Malaek has not articulated any justification for his argument that probability supports the fraud-created-the-market theory, and because the most obvious possible justification is flawed, we are comfortable stating that the theory is not supported by probability and decline to further speculate on the issue.
C.
Other considerations relevant to whether a presumption should be created similarly point toward rejecting the fraud-created-the-market theory. First, the theory does not serve the securities laws’ goal of informing investors via disclosures. “In
Affiliated Ute,
the Supreme Court described the 1934 Act and its companion legislative enactments (including the Securities Act of 1933) as embracing a ‘fundamental purpose to substitute a philosophy of full disclosure for the philosophy of caveat emptor and thus to achieve a high standard of business ethics in the securities industry.’”
Id.
(quoting
Affiliated Ute,
“[T]he federal securities laws are intended to put investors into a position from which they can help themselves by relying upon disclosures that others are obligated to make.”
Shores,
[T]he only workable measure of damages in a Shores action would be the fall price paid by the plaintiff for the new issue. That being so, a Shores award would simply be the plaintiffs out-of-pocket expenses caused by the fraud-the same measure of damages for a standard Rule 10b-5 recovery based upon actual reliance, see L. Loss, Fundamentals of Securities Regulation 967 (2d ed.1988) (out-of-pocket normally means difference between price paid and value of securities). Thus, under Shores, any incentive to read disclosures essentially disappears since plaintiffs would receive the full purchase price for their securities without having to read disclosure information.
Ross,
Malack argues that the fraud-created-the-market theory would serve Congress’s goals of promoting honesty and fair dealings in the securities markets.
Shores,
More recently, in
Stoneridge Investment Partners, LLC v. Scientific-Atlanta, Inc.,
In addition, the
Stoneridge
Court explained that “[concerns with the judicial creation of a private cause of action caution against” the expansion of the § 10(b) cause of action.
Stoneridge,
Policy concerns also support rejection of the fraud-created-the-market theory. Congress has made it clear that it is hostile to frivolous § 10(b) litigation. E.g., 15 U.S.C. § 78u-4(b)(2) (requiring particularity in securities fraud complaint where “plaintiff may recover money damages only on proof that the defendant acted with a particular state of mind”); id. § 78u-4(c) (providing sanctions for abusive *755 litigation). Yet the fraud-created-the-market theory encourages exactly such litigation by essentially eliminating the reliance requirement for a § 10(b) claim. This has at least two negative impacts.
First, Rule 10b-5 litigation, by its very nature, is costly. An increase in frivolous litigation drives up the overall costs of issuing securities, ultimately harming everyone involved. In
Central Bank,
the Supreme Court noted that Rule 10b-5 litigation presents a “danger of vexatiousness different in degree and in kind from that which accompanies litigation in general.”
Central Bank,
[Njewer and smaller companies may find it difficult to obtain advice from professionals. A professional may fear that a newer or smaller company may not survive and that business failure would generate securities litigation against the professional, among others. In addition, the increased costs incurred by professionals because of the litigation and settlement costs under 10b-5 may be passed on to their client companies, and in turn incurred by the company’s investors, the intended beneficiaries of the statute.
Id.
Second, the presumption of reliance is a powerful tool for plaintiffs seeking class certification and class certification puts pressure on defendants to settle claims, even if they are frivolous.
See In re Hydrogen Peroxide Antitrust Litig.,
Y.
Assuming, hypothetically, that we were to endorse the fraud-created-the-market theory, and that we followed Ma-lack’s approach to the theory, his appeal would still fail.
10
Malack urges us to fol
*756
low the legal unmarketability test offered in
T.J. Raney & Sons, Inc. v. Fort Cobb, Oklahoma Irrigation Fuel Authority,
The instant case does not meet the
T.J. Raney & Sons
test for legal unmarketability. Critical to that Court’s reasoning was the observation that the relevant bonds were issued in violation of state law because the issuer was not a valid public trust.
See id.
Because the issuer never had the legal right to issue the bonds and the bonds were marketed with the intent to defraud, the bonds were legally unmarketable.
See id.
There was no similar legal impediment to American Business issuing notes. Malack conceded at oral argument that had BDO properly conducted the audit and disclosed the deficiencies he argues were present in the allegedly fraudulent audit, the SEC
still
would have permitted the notes to go to market. According to the Tenth Circuit, “[t]here is a significant difference between securities which
should
not be marketed because they involve fraud, and securities which
cannot
be marketed because the issuers lack legal authority to offer them.”
Joseph,
VI.
The fraud-created-the-market theory lacks a basis in common sense, probability, or any of the other reasons commonly provided for the creation of a presumption. As such, we decline to recognize a presumption of reliance based on the theory and will affirm the District Court’s denial of class certification.
Notes
. That provision of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 states:
It shall be unlawful for any person, directly or indirectly, by the use of any means or instrumentality of interstate commerce or of the mails, or of any facility of any national securities exchange—
(b) To use or employ, in connection with the purchase or sale of any security registered on a national securities exchange or any security not so registered, or any securities-based swap agreement (as defined in section 206B of the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act), any manipulative or deceptive device or contrivance in contravention of such rules and regulations as the Commission may prescribe as necessary or appropriate in the public interest or for the protection of investors.
15 U.S.C. § 78j(b).
. Rule 10b-5 states:
It shall be unlawful for any person, directly or indirectly, by the use of any means or instrumentality of interstate commerce, or of the mails or of any facility of any national securities exchange,
*745 (a) To employ any device, scheme, or artifice to defraud,
(b) To make any untrue statement of a material fact or to omit to state a material fact necessary in order to make the statements made, in the light of the circumstances under which they were made, not misleading, or
(c) To engage in any act, practice, or course of business which operates or would operate as a fraud or deceit upon any person, in connection with the purchase or sale of any security.
17 C.F.R. § 240.10b-5.
. All references to "Rule 23” refer to Rule 23 of the Federal Rules of Civil Procedure.
. Malack did not seek certification of a class based on actual reliance.
. The District Court’s opinion diligently marched through the relevant facts and law, properly identifying the key, relevant aspects of the class certification procedure as set forth in
In re Hydrogen Peroxide Antitrust Litigation. Malack v. BDO Seidman, LLP,
No. 08-0784,
. Although we have yet to consider the fraud-created-the-market theory, the district courts of this Circuit have applied both the economic and factual unmarketability approaches.
Compare, e.g., Gruber v. Price Waterhouse,
. One could argue that an issuer and related entities "benefit when [they] develop! ] a reputation for disclosing accurate information to investors” and therefore they would generally seek to disclose accurate information. Robert A. Prentice, The Inevitability of a Strong SEC, 91 Cornell L.Rev. 775, 781 (2006). Yet recent economic history undermines this argument. Id. Many entities now forgo the long term benefits of accurate disclosures for the prospect of short term gain. Id. at 782. Indeed, a significant amount of academic literature is devoted to examining the factors influencing issuers and related entities to, on the whole, act less honestly than we once believed they did. See, e.g., Ronald J. Gilson & Reiner Kraakman, The Mechanisms of Market Efficiency Twenty Years Later: The Hindsight Bias, 28 Iowa J. Corp. L. 715 (2003); John C. Coffee, Jr., What Caused Enron? A Capsule Social and Economic History of the 1990s, 89 Cornell L.Rev. 269 (2004).
. For example, the federal regulation pertaining to the "[florepart of [a][r]egistralion [statement and [the][o]utside [flront [c]over [p]age of [a][p]rospectus” states that if a commission legend is needed it must "indicate[] that neither the [SEC] nor any state securities commission has approved or disapproved of the securities or passed upon the accuracy or adequacy of the disclosures in the prospectus and that any contrary representation is a criminal offense.” 17 C.F.R. § 229.501(b)(7).
. Stripped of its fortuitously similar name— which may have bolstered its credibility with some courts—the fraud-created-the-market theory gains no support from the universally accepted fraud-on-the-market theory. The latter is ultimately grounded in the efficient market hypothesis, which, while imperfect, has a basis in economics.
See In re Burling
*752
ton Coat Factory Sec. Litig.,
. To be clear, our holding rejecting the fraud-created-the-marlcet theory in its entirety is in no way weakened by the following discussion.
