OPINION
William Alexander Leiva-Perez filed a petition for review of a decision of the Board of Immigration Appeals (BIA) denying his application for asylum, withholding of removal and relief under the United Nations Convention Against Torture (CAT). Along with his petition for review, Leiva-Perez filed a motion for a stay of removal. Pursuant to Ninth Circuit General Order 6.4(c)(1), Leiva-Perez’s motion caused a temporary stay to issue. See
De Leon v. INS,
I. Background
Before passage of the Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant Responsibility Act of 1996 (IIRIRA), Pub.L. No. 104-208, div. C, 110 Stat. 3009-546, aliens appealing a decision of the BIA were generally entitled to an automatic stay of their orders of removal pending judicial review. See 8 U.S.C. § 1105a(a)(3) (repealed 1996). With IIRIRA, Congress eliminated the automatic stay provision, but left intact the authority of the courts of appeal to grant stays as a matter of discretion.
See
8 U.S.C. § 1252(b)(3)(B) (2006);
see also Andrew, v. Ashcroft,
Congress did not specify the standard that courts should apply in evaluating an alien’s request to stay his removal pending our adjudication of his petition for review. In
Abbassi v. INS,
Petitioner must show either a probability of success on the merits and the possibility of irreparable injury, or that serious legal questions are raised and the balance of hardships tips sharply in petitioner’s favor. These standards represent the outer extremes of a continuum, with the relative hardships to the parties providing the critical element in determining at what point on the continuum a stay pending review is justified.
Id. (citations omitted). This “continuum” was essentially the same as the “sliding scale” approach we long applied to requests for preliminary injunctions, whereby “the elements of the preliminary injunction test are balanced, so that a stronger showing of one element may offset a weaker showing of another.”
Alliance for the Wild Rockies v. Cottrell,
The
Abbassi
formulation remained our standard for stays of removal until an aspect of it — its treatment of the irreparable harm factor — was rejected as too lenient in
Nken.
Nken’s principal holding was that stays of removal are governed by “the traditional test for stays,” rather than 8 U.S.C. § 1252(f)’s higher standard for enjoining an alien’s removal, but it also endeavored to clarify “what that [traditional stay] test is.”
Nken began by noting the four factors that have been considered when evaluating whether to issue a stay:
(1) whether the stay applicant has made a strong showing that he is likely to succeed on the merits; (2) whether the applicant will be irreparably injured absent a stay; (3) whether issuance of the stay will substantially injure the other parties interested in the proceeding; and (4) where the public interest lies.
Id. at 1761 (quoting
Hilton v. Braunskill,
We will say more about each of these factors in a moment, but pause first
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to emphasize that while, as we develop later,
Nken
raised the minimum permissible showing of irreparable harm necessary to justify a stay of removal, it did not disturb the overall manner in which courts balance the various stay factors once they are established.
Nken
held that if the petitioner has not made a certain threshold showing regarding irreparable harm — and we discuss what that threshold is below— then a stay may not issue, regardless of the petitioner’s proof regarding the other stay factors.
See Nken,
Aside from raising the irreparable harm threshold,
Nken
did not directly address the common practice of courts to balance the relative equities of the stay factors. We find it significant, though, that
Nken
twice invoked
Hilton
as stating the “traditional” test for stays, and that
Hilton
endorsed the same balancing approach sanctioned by
Abbassi. See Nken,
Hilton
considered the circumstances under which a federal court of appeals should stay the issuance of a writ of habeas corpus following the district court’s granting of the writ, thereby maintaining the petitioner’s custodial detention pending the resolution of the state’s appeal. After noting the various interests of the state and the petitioner that the court could take into consideration in adjudicating the stay request,
Hilton
explained that the balance of the relative equities “may depend to a large extent upon determination of the State’s prospects of success in its appeal.”
Where the State establishes that it has a strong likelihood of success on appeal, or where, failing that, it can nonetheless demonstrate a substantial case on the merits, continued custody is permissible if the second and fourth factors in the traditional stay analysis militate against release. Where the State’s showing on the merits falls below this level, the preference for release should control.
Id. (citations omitted). We take Nken’s endorsement of Hilton as an indication that we should continue to employ the type of “continuum” articulated in Abbassi, albeit with a few refinements discussed below.
Further, in a closely analogous situation — a request for a stay pending the filing and disposition of a petition for a writ of certiorari — the Supreme Court recently emphasized the use of a flexible approach bearing a strong resemblance to the
Abbassi
continuum.
See Hollingsworth v. Perry,
— U.S. -, -,
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We note, too, that a panel of our court recently reached a similar conclusion to ours as to the effect of recent Supreme Court cases — in particular,
Winter v. Natural Resources Defense Council, Inc.,
If anything, a flexible approach is even more appropriate in the stay context. Whereas “the extraordinary remedy of injunction” is the means by which a court “directs the conduct of a party ... with the backing of its full coercive powers,” a stay operates only “upon the judicial proceeding itself.... either by halting or postponing some portion of the proceeding, or by temporarily divesting an order of enforceability.” Id. at 1757-58 (quotation marks omitted). In other words, although “[a] stay pending appeal certainly has some functional overlap with an injunction,” id. at 1758, stays are typically less coercive and less disruptive than are injunctions. See id. (“An alien seeking a stay of removal pending adjudication of a petition for review does not ask for a coercive order against the Government, but rather for the temporary setting aside of the source of the Government’s authority to remove.”).
We therefore conclude that the general balancing approach used in Abbassi remains in place, and move on to consider whether and — if so, how — Nken affects the individual elements to be balanced.
II. Likelihood of Success on the Merits
The first showing a stay petitioner must make is “a strong showing that he is likely to succeed on the merits.” Id. at 1761 (quoting
Hilton,
As the Second Circuit has noted,
Nken
“did not suggest that this factor requires a showing that the movant is ‘more likely than not’ to succeed on the merits.”
Citigroup Global Mkts., Inc. v. VCG Special Opportunities Master Fund Ltd.,
We find additional evidence that this stay factor does not require the moving party to show that her ultimate success is probable from other post
-Nken
opinions. In an opinion released several months after
Nken,
Justice Breyer, sitting as a Circuit Justice, explained that “whether the stay applicant has made a strong showing that he is likely to succeed on the merits” means, in the context of a stay pending a petition for writ of certiorari, “that it is
reasonably likely
that four Justices of this Court will vote to grant the petition for writ of certiorari, and that, if they do so vote, there is a
fair prospect
that a majority of the Court will conclude that the decision below was erroneous.”
O’Brien v. O’Laughlin,
— U.S. -,
Such a rule, moreover, makes good sense. A more stringent requirement would either, in essence, put every case in which a stay is requested on an expedited schedule, with the parties required to brief the merits of the case in depth for stay purposes, or would have the court attempting to predict with accuracy the resolution of often-thorny legal issues without adequate briefing and argument. Such preadjudication adjudication would defeat the purpose of a stay, which is to give the reviewing court the time to “act responsibly,” rather than doling out “justice on the fly.”
Nken,
There are many ways to articulate the minimum quantum of likely success necessary to justify a stay — be it a “reasonable probability” or “fair prospect,” as
Hollingsworth,
III. Irreparable Harm
While
Nken
did not affect
Abbassi’s
likelihood of success prong, it did overrule that part of
Abbassi
that permitted a stay to issue upon the petitioner “simply showing some
‘possibility
of irreparable injury.’”
Nken,
We read
Nken’s
reference to
Winter
in this context as indicating that to obtain a stay of removal, an alien must demonstrate that irreparable harm is probable if the stay is not granted. In other words, an alien’s burden with regard to irreparable harm is higher than it is on the likelihood of success prong, as she must show that an irreparable injury is the more probable or likely outcome.
Cf. Wild Rockies,
Nken
did not make explicit this differential treatment of the level of irreparable harm and likelihood of success on the merits, but there is support for it in the text of the traditional stay test. Whereas the question on the irreparable harm stay factor is “whether the applicant will be irreparably injured absent a stay,” the first stay factor asks “whether the stay applicant
has made a strong showing that he is likely
to succeed on the merits.”
Nken,
While the Supreme Court [in Winter ] cabined th[e] flexibility [of the sliding scale approach] with regard to the likelihood of harm, there are good reasons to treat the likelihood of success differently. As between the two, a district court at the preliminary injunction stage is in a much better position to predict the likelihood of harm than the likelihood of success. In fact, it is not unusual for the parties to be in rough agreement about what will follow a denial of injunctive relief.
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Wild Rockies,
In addition to rejecting our “possibility” standard,
Nken
emphasized the individualized nature of the irreparable harm inquiry.
See Nken,
Before IIRIRA, noncitizens were not permitted to pursue petitions for review once they had left (or were removed from) the United States because “the petition abated upon removal.” Id. Therefore, the pre-IIRIRA automatic stay provision “reflected a recognition of the irreparable nature of harm” caused by removal: a noncitizens’s removal prevented her from obtaining judicial review. Id. With IIRIRA, however, Congress permitted noncitizens to pursue their petitions for review even post-removal, “and those who prevail can be afforded effective relief by facilitation of their return, along with restoration of the immigration status they had upon removal.” Id. Because Congress eliminated the source of categorical irreparable harm — the prohibition on pursuing petitions for review from abroad — Congress also did away with the automatic stay.
For the same reason,
Nken
explained, we can no longer assume that “the burden of removal alone ... constitute^] the requisite irreparable injury.” Id. Instead, a noncitizen must show that there is.a reason specific to his or her case, as opposed to a reason that would apply equally well to all aliens and all cases, that removal would inflict irreparable harm — for example, that removal would effectively prevent her from pursuing her petition for review, or that, even if she prevails, she could not be afforded effective relief.
See
id.;
see also, e.g., Desta v. Ashcroft,
In asylum, withholding of removal and CAT cases, the claim on the merits is that the individual is in physical danger if returned to his or her home country. Consideration of the likelihood of such treatment, determined apart from merits issues such as whether any physical abuse would be on account of a protected ground for asylum and withholding purposes, or whether the alien is barred from relief as a criminal alien, should be part of the irreparable harm inquiry.
See Kenyeres v. Ashcroft,
We do not intend the examples provided here to be an exhaustive treatment of the ways in which an alien can demonstrate irreparable harm. Indeed, in light of the individualized consideration stay requests are to be afforded, such a treatment would be impossible.
IV. Public Interest
As for the third and fourth factors — assessing how a stay would affect the opposing party and the interest of the public — they merge where, as is the case here, the government is the opposing party.
See Nken,
We emphasize that although petitioners have the ultimate burden of justifying a stay of removal, the government is obliged to bring circumstances concerning the public interest to the attention of the court. Nken’s admonition that we cannot base stay decisions on assumptions and “blithe assertion[s],” id., applies with equal force to the government’s contentions in opposing stay requests. The relevant circumstances would include any reason to believe that the petitioner would not in fact be removed were the stay denied.
In sum, and for the sake of clarity, we hold that in light of Nken’s impact on our prior precedent, a petitioner seeking a stay of removal must show that irreparable harm is probable and either: (a) a strong likelihood of success on the merits and that the public interest does not weigh heavily against a stay; or (b) a substantial case on the merits and that the balance of hardships tips sharply in the petitioner’s favor. As has long been the case, “[tjhese standards represent the outer extremes of a continuum, with the relative hardships to the parties providing the critical element in determining at what point on the continuum a stay pending review is justified.”
Abbassi
V. Application
With these precepts in mind, we turn to Leiva-Perez’s particular case. We hold that a stay of removal is warranted.
First, Leiva-Perez has demonstrated that he is likely to suffer irreparable harm if returned to his home country, El Salvador. Leiva-Perez testified before the IJ, who found Leiva-Perez credible, that he was personally targeted for extortion and savage beatings by a particular group of individuals affiliated with the Farabundo Marti National Liberation Front (“FMLN”), a political party. These actions, if carried out after removal, would certainly constitute irreparable harm. Leiva-Perez’s testimony indicated that the extortion and beatings are indeed likely to recur if he is forced to return to El Salvador. Accordingly, Leiva-Perez has made a sufficient showing that irreparable harm is probable, absent a stay.
He has also demonstrated a sufficiently strong likelihood of success on the merits. The BIA’s sole reason for dismissing Leiva-Perez’s asylum appeal was that he
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had failed to establish a nexus between the persecution he has suffered and his claimed protected ground, political opinion.
See Soriano v. Holder,
The IJ stated that the beatings and extortion Leiva-Perez suffered were not on account of his political opinion because they were simply “criminal matters.” The BIA seemingly agreed, suggesting that Leiva-Perez had merely “a general fear of crime and violence.” “[A] generalized or random possibility of persecution” is, of course, insufficient to support an asylum claim.
Singh v. INS,
As for the final two factors of the stay analysis, Leiva-Perez argues that the relative equities weigh heavily in his favor, based principally on the public’s interest in ensuring that we do not deliver aliens into the hands of their persecutors and the fact that he is not currently detained, and therefore the government is incurring no expense while he seeks judicial review. The government has made no arguments to the contrary, nor any showing as to whether the Department of Homeland Security will actually take steps to remove Leiva-Perez relatively soon if the stay is denied. On these facts, the public interest weighs in favor of a stay of removal.
In sum, Leiva-Perez has demonstrated that irreparable harm is probable absent a stay, that he has a substantial case on the merits and that the balance of hardships tips sharply in his favor. Accordingly, his request for a stay pending review of his petition for review is granted.
VI. Conclusion
Insofar as Abbassi and its progeny permitted noncitizens to obtain a stay of removal pending adjudication of their petitions for review upon showing that irreparable harm was anything less than probable, those cases were overruled by Nken. That said, so long as the alien has made the threshold showing that irreparable harm is probable absent a stay, we continue to weigh the relative equities along the Abbassi “continuum,” delineated on one end by a showing of a strong likelihood of success on the merits and that the public interest does not weigh heavily against a stay; and, on the other end, by a showing of a substantial case on the merits and that the balance of hardships tips sharply in favor of a stay. Because Leiva-Perez has met his burden as to each factor and the overall balance tips in his favor, we grant his motion for *972 a stay of removal pending the resolution of his petition for review.
STAY GRANTED.
Notes
. Subsection 1252(f)(2) of Title 8 provides in full: “Notwithstanding any other provision of law, no court shall enjoin the removal of any alien pursuant to a final order under this section unless the alien shows by clear and convincing evidence that the entry or execution of such order is prohibited as a matter of law.”
.
See also, e.g., Bush v. Gore,
. The merits questions would, of course, be pertinent to the independent likelihood of success factor.
