Fоr 30 years Kastriot Musabelliu served in Albania’s military. When mustered out at the end of January 2001 he held the rank of brigadier general. He used a tourist visa to enter the United States that May; when the visa expired he neither departed nor sought an extension. He claimed asylum with only a few days left in the year allowed for that step. 8 U.S.C. § 1158(a)(2)(B). His wife and daughter have filed claims that depend on his; we do not discuss them further.
Musabelliu contends that he was persecuted (and remains at risk of persecutiоn) because of his political opinions. He relates that during the first half of 1999, while Serbian forces were removing ethnic Albanians from Kosovo and soldiers under his command were posted at the border, he noticed illegal arms deliveries into Ko-sovo and the diversion of food from refugees to the black market. He notified both his immediate superior and Luan Hajdaraga, the Minister of Defense, who told him to keep his mouth shut and mind his own business — which he did, allowing both the arms smuggling and the diversiоn of relief supplies to continue. A colonel at the time, Musabelliu soon was promoted to general. Hajdaraga was removed from the defense portfolio on July 7, 2000, though in July 2003 he returned to the cabinet as Acting Minister of Foreign Affairs. (He is not in office today. His party lost the election in 2005, and a new cabinet was formed that September with Sali Berisha of the Democratic Party as Prime Minister.)
Musabelliu suspects that Hajdaraga (though out of office) had a hand in his dismissal (whiсh the military services justified on the ground that 30 years is enough). Musabelliu likewise suspects that Hajdaraga was behind an incident during January 2001: two persons fired at a military convoy in which Musabelliu was riding. After the end of his military career Musabelliu tried without succеss to meet with Prime Minister Ilir Meta and asked the public prosecutor to do more about corruption; he was shot in the arm during April 2001 while returning from a visit to the prosecutor’s office and maintains that all those who have opposed Hаj-daraga must flee Albania if they are to remain safe.
*994 The immigration judge concluded that Musabelliu had not established, by a preponderance of the evidence, that his speech caused the later events. The immigration judge added that, even if all of Musabelliu’s suspicions are correct, they would not show that he had been or would be persecuted on account of his political opinions. The Board of Immigration Appeals agreed with the immigration judge on both grounds.
Asylum is available to refugees, a term defined in 8 U.S.C. § 1101(a)(42)(A) as those facing “a well-founded fear of persecution on account of race, religion, nationality, membership in a particular social group, or politiсal opinion” in their native land. Losing a job is not persecution. See
Medhin v. Ashcroft,
For completeness we add that Musabelliu has not established that his speech led to the discharge.
Post hoc ergo propter hoc
is not a good way to prove causation. Musabelliu was left in his post at the border after passing his observations up the chain of command. Later he was promоted. Thirty years is a long career for a military officer in the United States; if a return to civilian life after three decades is unusually soon for generals in Albania, then Musabelliu could have demonstrated that fact in order to support an infеrence that his departure had an unusual cause. Substantial evidence supports the agency’s conclusion that he has not established that his decision to inform his superiors cost him his military career. See
INS v. Elias-Zacarias,
The same must be said about thе convoy incident in January 2001. Musabelliu testified that the shots were fired at the lead vehicle in a convoy. Musabelliu himself was farther back in the line and was uninjured. At the time, the region that Musabelliu’s soldiers had been patrolling (and from which the convоy was departing) was full of armed refugees from Kosovo plus other armed factions and some bandits. That two people shot in a convoy’s direction could have had many causes other than an effort to assassinate the commanding general; and if it was an effort to kill the general, it could have had causes other than Musabelliu’s statements two years earlier. Musabelliu may have had many enemies; having served since 1971 in the military of one of the world’s most repressivе regimes (Enver Hoxha, who ruled Albania between 1944 and 1985, was intolerant of religion, markets, speech, and freedom, among other things, and his successor Ramiz Alia continued his policies through 1990) Musabelliu may have been *995 at risk from other persons who wanted to settle scores once arms became available to the populace. The agency did not commit a clear error in concluding that Musa-belliu had not established a causal link between his 1999 statements and this incident.
Unlike losing command of a brigade, a risk of death can be “persecution,” so the next question is whether Musabelliu’s post-discharge complaints to the public prosecutor, and his efforts to meet with the Prime Minister, are a form of “рolitical opinion” that led to the shooting incident in April 2001. Musabelliu changed his story in material ways between his written application for asylum and the hearing. In one version the prosecutor summoned him (the implication being that Musabelliu was in trоuble with the authorities), and in another Musabelliu took the initiative in helping a crusading prosecutor get the goods on corrupt office holders. In one version Musabelliu was shot, from long range, a good distance from his home; in another he was shot from close range just outside his door. In one version the press had publicized his upcoming visit to the prosecutor (the implication being that someone who learned about his whistle-blowing wanted his mouth closed), and in another the visit wаs confidential. The immigration judge noted that no press accounts were introduced into evidence, though they should have been available — if only because Musabelliu had held a high position in a small nation (Albania’s population is undеr 4 million), and his shooting would be newsworthy even though the wound was not life-threatening. His wife Asije testified that the incident “was everywhere in the media.”
Musabelliu testified that he was a friend of the U.S. Ambassador, who believed that Musabelliu was at risk and issued visas so that his fаmily could escape to safety; but the IJ concluded from the timing of the visa applications (which predated April 2001) that this cannot have been so. Joseph Limprecht, the Ambassador to Albania at the time of these events, cоuld have cleared matters up, but died in May 2002 (the same month Musabelliu applied for asylum), which enabled Musabelliu to testify without fear of contradiction — and he did not offer either testimony or affidavit from anyone else who was on the Embassy’s staff at the time and would have been able to confirm his version of events. That almost a year passed between Musabelliu’s arrival in the United States and his claim for asylum, and that the stated reason for the visas was to allow Musabelliu and his wife tо attend their daughter’s graduation from college, further undermine his contention that the Embassy issued the visas to facilitate the family’s escape. Finally, the IJ noted that even if everything Musa-belliu said on the stand is true, there is no particular reasоn to believe that Hajdara-ga (out of public office at the time) was behind the shooting. Musabelliu had been warned by friends to “watch his back,” but they did not say why — and as we have noted he may have had many enemies. The IJ’s evaluation is not an adverse credibility determination; instead it is a conclusion Musabelliu had not established the cause of the events to which he testified, and that decision cannot be labeled clearly erroneous.
All questions about causation to оne side, Musabelliu still has problems, for he did not take a public political stand. Whistle-blowing about public corruption can be a form of political opinion. See
Marquez v. INS,
Smuggling and the diversion of relief supplies are issues of public concern, but Musabelliu did not take them to the public in quest of a political decision. Cf.
Connick v. Myers,
How far to press the “political opinion” clause of the statute is a matter principally committed to the agency, whose understanding must be accepted unless it exceeds the interpretive leeway delegated by Congress. See
INS v. Cardoza-Fonse-ca,
Although a conclusion that private communications to a military commander, a cabinet member, and a public prosecutor about pоtential crimes are not a form of “political opinion” could be an allowable understanding of the statute, this may not have been the Board’s resolution. We therefore do not rely on this aspect of the Board’s disposition; аn agency must take a stance if it wants the court to rely on its exercise of interpretive discretion. The Board’s conclusion that Musabelliu has not shown a causal connection between his speech and the later events is, however, wholly a matter of fact, and is supported by substantial evidence.
The petition for review is denied.
