Defendant-Appellant Jeff Fowler was convicted of annoying or molesting Charla Lara in violation of California Penal Code § 647.6 following a jury trial in which he was precluded from cross-examining Lara regarding two prior incidents in which she alleged that other men had molested her. We conclude that the proffered cross-examination sufficiently bore upon Lara’s reliability or credibility such that the jury might reasonably have questioned it and, thus, that the cross-examination implicated Fowler’s Sixth Amendment right to confrontation. We further conclude that the trial court’s implicit determination — that precluding the proffered cross-examination, rather than limiting it, was not unreasonable, arbitrary or disproportionate given the trial court’s concerns about waste of time, confusion of the issues, and prejudice- — was itself objectively unreasonable. Finally, because Lara’s testimony was crucial to the State’s case, which, in any event, was not strong, we conclude that this error had substantial and injurious effect or influence in determining the jury’s verdict. We therefore reverse the district court’s order denying Fowler’s petition for a writ of habeas corpus, and remand for issuance of a conditional writ.
I.
A.
On September 5, 1998, Fowler agreed to drive Lara from her mother’s apartment to her Mend’s house. Lara, who was then fourteen years old, was daughter to Kelly Kenniston, with whom Fowler had been romantically involved. All parties agree that, before driving Lara to her Mend’s house, Fowler applied some type of lotion to her, and that, while driving Lara to her Mend’s house, Fowler engaged her in a sexually explicit conversation. However, the details in Lara’s and Fowler’s accounts differ considerably. There were no third-party witnesses to either event.
1.
At trial, Lara testified that before Fowler drove her to her Mend’s house, he *1031 suggested that she change clothes and then entered the walk-in closet while she was wearing only a bra and underpants to offer her a particular dress. Lara put on the dress and then excused herself to the bathroom, where Fowler followed and told her that she needed some lotion and that he would apply it. He first applied it to her lower legs and thighs and, while doing so, his hand brushed the outside of her underpants several times. He then applied the lotion to her arms, after which he told Lara to lift her dress so that he could apply it to her back. Lara complied, and, as Fowler was applying the lotion to her back, he pushed her underpants down with his hand. He also applied the lotion to Lara’s stomach, and, while doing so, slipped his hand underneath her underpants, but did not touch her vagina. Finally, he applied the lotion to her breasts, moving his hands inside her bra and touching her nipples. Fowler and Lara then left the apartment. While driving Lara to her friend’s house, Fowler asked her whether she watched pornographic movies. He also suggested that, if she “got ‘horny,’ ” she should masturbate rather than have sex, but that, should she have sex, she should use a condom.
2.
As noted above, Fowler concedes that he applied the lotion and that he later engaged Lara in a sexually explicit conversation. Otherwise, he tells a very different story. Fowler testified that Lara was already wearing the dress when he entered the apartment. He testified further that Lara asked him to apply the lotion, and that he did so quickly and asexually. Specifically, while he acknowledged applying the lotion to Lara’s lower legs, arms and possibly her shoulders and back, he denied having touched her thighs, groin, stomach, breasts or nipples. As for the later conversation, Fowler explains that he initiated the conversation because Lara’s father previously had told Fowler that Lara was “messing around” with her step-brothers, and Fowler was attempting to counsel Lara about the differences between appropriate and inappropriate sexual behavior.
3.
After Lara arrived at her friend’s house, her friend’s mother noticed that Lara did not appear to be feeling well. When she inquired, Lara eventually said something about Fowler having put lotion on her, prompting her friend’s mother to telephone Kenniston, who, in turn, contacted the police. About two weeks later, Lara was questioned about the incidents by an interview specialist with the Multi-Disci-plinary Interview Center (“MDIC”), while a detective with the Sacramento County Sheriffs Department observed from behind a two-way mirror.
B.
1.
Shortly afterwards, Fowler was charged with sexual battery in violation of California Penal Code § 243.4 1 and annoying or *1032 molesting a minor in violation of California Penal Code § 647.6. 2 He pleaded not guilty.
Before trial, the State moved to prevent Fowler from cross-examining Lara and offering evidence regarding two incidents of molestation that, in her MDIC interview, Lara had claimed to have suffered about six years before the incident involving Fowler. Fowler opposed the State’s motion, arguing that it would violate his Sixth Amendment rights to confront and cross-examine adverse witnesses and his Fourteenth Amendment right to due process. In opposing the motion, Fowler made a proffer to the trial court detailing the proposed cross-examination. The proffer was based on the MDIC interview and on a police report in connection with the second of the two earlier alleged incidents of molestation.
According to Fowler’s proffer, the first of these two prior incidents involved an “acquaintance” of Kenniston named Tommy Filson. Lara claimed to have been sleeping at Filson’s residence when Filson “grabbed her in the crotch, pulled down her pants, touched her butt,” and then repeated the process at least twice. According to Lara, Filson “went to either jail or prison as a result of that.” 3
The second incident occurred “a little bit after that” and involved Kenniston’s then-boyfriend Steven Hendrix. According to Fowler’s reading of Lara’s MDIC interview:
My mom had a boyfriend and, umm, like this is like — like a little bit after that Tommy [Filson] incident. So I was thinking I was just like a little cautious about things. And he was putting me to bed, and I don’t really know if he meant to do that, so he — like he was like flying me into bed and he, like he was holding my crotch, and I was just — I said something to my mom, and my mom went and told the cops. But I don’t think ... it was that big of a deal.
(Emphases added). The Bakersfield Police Department investigated this second incident, and although, in retrospect, Lara admitted to having been “a little cautious about things” and described the incident as not “that big of a deal,” she reported to the Bakersfield Police Department at the time of the incident “that [Hendrix] put his hand between her legs on her private part and squeezed about four times.” Nonetheless, the Bakersfield Police Department concluded that the case was “unfounded,” apparently because Lara’s statements were uncorroborated and because Kenni-ston contradicted Lara. Specifically, although intoxicated at the time of the alleged incident, Kenniston claimed to have observed Hendrix putting Lara to bed on the night in question and to have seen no inappropriate touching: “[Kenniston] said she only observed [Hendrix] ... lay [Lara] *1033 on the bed, in a sense. She said before that she did not observe anything unusual.... She never noticed him to touch [Lara] in any way, and she believed [Lara] was asleep during the entire time.”
Fowler argued that the incident involving Hendrix was evidence that, owing to the earlier incident involving Filson, Lara had a tendency to, as she put it, be “a little cautious about things” and, perhaps, as Fowler put it, to be “supersensitive” to physical contact “somewhere near a sensitive area such as a breast or vaginal area or crotch” by adult men and, thus, to “[mis]perceive[ ],” “exaggerate[ ]” or “overreact[].” Fowler argued that this was particularly relevant given that he “acknowledge[d] that he rubbed cream on[Lara’s] legs and arms,” but denied “touch[ing] her in a sexual manner or in a sexual place.” Fowler also argued that the incident involving Hendrix was evidence not merely of Lara being prone to over-reaction, but also of her untruthfulness.
The trial court granted the State’s motion to preclude the proffered cross-examination. It first explained that there was no “indication” that Lara actually overreacted or lied in the prior incidents and that the facts of the prior accusations were “very dissimilar” from those here. It then “weighted] the evidence” pursuant to California Evidence Code § 352 against the facts that its introduction “would consume an inordinate amount of court time,” “would be extremely confusing to this jury,” and “would be significantly more prejudicial than it would be probative.” 4
2.
At the conclusion of the ensuing two-day trial, the jury deliberated for four days. Ultimately, it was unable to reach a unanimous verdict as to the sexual battery charge, but convicted Fowler of annoying and molesting Lara. Fowler was placed on three-years probation, conditioned on his serving 150 days in county jail and registering as a sex offender pursuant to California Penal Code § 290.
3.
After exhausting his state remedies, Fowler filed in federal district court the petition for a writ of habeas corpus now before us. He made six claims, including that in limiting his cross-examination of Lara, the trial court violated his Sixth Amendment right to cross-examine adverse witnesses. The magistrate judge recommended issuing the writ on the basis of this claim, but otherwise found Fowler’s claims to be without merit. Rejecting the magistrate judge’s recommendation, the district court concluded that all of Fowler’s claims were without merit and denied the petition. Fowler then filed this timely appeal, and the district court granted a certificate of appealability as to all of the issues raised in the petition. We have jurisdiction pursuant to 28 U.S.C. § 2253. 5
*1034 II.
A.
We review a district court’s decision to deny a petition for a writ of habeas corpus
de novo
and its findings of fact for clear error.
Robinson v. Ignacio,
B.
Because Fowler filed this petition for a writ of habeas corpus on October 6, 2000 and, thus, after the effective date of the Antiterrorism and Effective Death Penalty Act (“AEDPA”), its provisions apply.
Lindh v. Murphy,
An application for a writ of habeas corpus on behalf of a person in custody pursuant to the judgment of a State court shall not be granted with respect to any claim that was adjudicated on the merits in State court proceedings unless the adjudication of the claim ... resulted in a decision that was contrary to, or involved an unreasonable application of, clearly established Federal law, as determined by the Supreme Court of the United States....
28 U.S.C. § 2254(d)(1). Before applying this now familiar provision, three points bear repetition.
First,
“clearly established Federal law[] as determined by the Supreme Court of the United States,”
id.,
refers to “the governing legal principle or principles” set forth by the Supreme Court as of the time of the relevant state-court decision,
Lambert v. Blodgett,
Second,
a decision is “contrary to” clearly established federal law as determined by the Supreme Court if “the state court applies a rule that contradicts the governing law set forth in [the Supreme Court’s] cases” or “if the state court confronts a set of facts that are materially indistinguishable from a decision of [the
*1035
Supreme] Court and nevertheless arrives at a result different from [that] precedent.”
Williams v. Taylor,
Third,
a decision involves “an unreasonable application of’ clearly established federal law as determined by the Supreme Court only if its application of that law is “objectively unreasonable,”
Williams,
III.
A.
The Confrontation Clause of the Sixth Amendment provides that “[i]n all criminal prosecutions, the accused shall enjoy the right ... to be confronted with the witnesses against him.... ” U.S. Const, amend. VI. This right, which is incorporated by the Fourteenth Amendment so as to apply to state prosecutions,
Pointer v. Texas,
1.
Before turning to what is meant by “appropriate” cross-examination,
Van Arsdall,
First,
“the right to cross-examine includes the opportunity to show [not only] that a witness is biased, [but also] that the testimony is exaggerated or [otherwise] unbelievable.”
Pennsylvania v. Ritchie,
Second,
cross-examination may implicate the Sixth Amendment even if it is not certain to affect the jury’s assessment of the witness’s reliability or credibility.
See Davis,
2.
Of course, even where cross-examination bears on the reliability or credibility of a witness and sufficiently so such that a jury might reasonably question such reliability or credibility, the cross-examination must nevertheless be “appropriate”:
It does not follow, of course, that the Confrontation Clause of the Sixth Amendment prevents a trial judge from imposing any limits on defense counsel’s inquiry into the [reliability or credibility] of a prosecution witness. On the contrary, trial judges retain wide latitude insofar as the Confrontation Clause is concerned to impose reasonable limits on such cross-examination based on concerns about, among other things, harassment, prejudice, confusion of the issues, the witness’ safety, or interrogation that is repetitive or only marginally relevant.
*1037
See Van Arsdall,
Rather significantly, however, these restrictions must be “reasonable,”
Van Arsdall,
B.
1.
The last-reasoned state-court decision here — and, thus, the decision that we review — is the trial court’s.
See Robinson v. Ignacio,
2.
a.
Although the trial court did not expressly rely upon “the governing legal principle,”
see Lambert v. Blodgett,
b.
Having so concluded, we must nevertheless consider whether the trial court’s preclusion of the cross-examination was an objectively unreasonable application of that precedent. In so doing, we consider first whether the proffered cross-examination sufficiently bore upon Lara’s reliability or credibility such that a jury might reasonably have questioned it, and, if so, whether the trial court’s preclusion of this cross-examination was unreasonable, arbitrary or disproportionate given its concerns about waste of time, confusion and prejudice.
According to Fowler’s proffer, Lara reported to the Bakersfield Police Department “that [Hendrix] put his hand between her legs on her private part and squeezed about four times.” The Bakersfield Police Department concluded, however, that the case was “unfounded.” Further, despite having reported what appears to be a deliberate molestation, Lara herself later conceded in her MDIC interview that she had been “a little cautious about things” and that, in retrospect, she did not view the Hendrix incident as “that big of a deal,” suggesting that she may have overreacted and perhaps exaggerated in reporting the Hendrix incident. Based on this evidence, a jury very well might rea *1039 sonably have concluded that Lara was hypersensitive to physical contact by adult men and, thus, tended to misinterpret or misperceive the conduct, overreact and then, perhaps unconsciously, exaggerate or embellish in recounting the conduct so as to fit her subjective misinterpretation or misperception. 7 Additionally, given Kenni-ston’s statements to the detective investigating the Hendrix incident that “she only observed [Hendrix] ... lay [Lara] on the bed,” “that she did not observe anything unusual,” that “[s]he never noticed him to touch [Lara] in any way,” and that “she believed [Lara] was asleep during the entire time,” a jury might reasonably have found that Lara had consciously lied about the Hendrix incident.
Nor, finally, was the Hendrix incident so dissimilar from the allegations against Fowler that Lara’s arguable lack of reliability or credibility in reporting that incident was irrelevant as to her allegations here. In recommending that Fowler’s ha-beas petition be granted on this issue, the magistrate judge persuasively set forth the similarity of the incidents:
The trial court also erred in characterizing the[Hendrix] incident as “dissimilar” to allegations against [Fowler], Both incidents involved alleged molestation by Kenniston’s boyfriend; Lara accused both men of repeatedly grabbing or bumping her groin through her clothing; both men admitted physical contact occurred but not to the groin; both men gave an innocent explanation for what took place. The incident [here] was .strikingly similar, regardless of its remoteness in time. The evidence had substantial relevance.
The incidents were not, of course, identical, but, as Fowler astutely observed before the trial court, “life isn’t like that.”
Thus, although the trial court concluded that there was no “indication” that Lara actually overreacted or lied in the prior incidents and that the facts of the prior incidents were “very dissimilar” from those here, in fact, there can be no doubt that the precluded cross-examination sufficiently bore on Lara’s reliability or credibility such that a jury might reasonably have questioned it.
8
We reiterate that
*1040
“[w]e cannot [and do not] speculate as to whether the jury, as sole judge of the credibility of a witness, would have accepted[Fowler’s] line of reasoning had counsel been permitted to fully present it.”
Davis,
Turning now to those countervailing interests, the trial court predicted that the cross-examination “would consume an inordinate amount of time,” but, in fact, there is no reason to believe that cross-examination as to the two prior incidents necessarily would have. Had the cross-examination been permitted, Fowler would have asked Lara about the prior incidents. At oral argument, Fowler estimated that this testimony would take no more than one hour. Only if Lara testified inconsistently with either her interview or the police report would Fowler have been forced to resort to extrinsic evidence in the form of the MDIC interview, police report or other witnesses. 9 Even then, Fowler advised the trial court that he would “be happy” “to abide with whatever restrictions the Court wishes to impose as far as keeping [the cross-examination] brief, relatively nonin-trusive, yet getting the probative facts before the jury.” Rather than setting forth reasonable restrictions and holding Fowler to his word, the trial court simply excluded any cross-examination at all on the subject.
The trial court also predicted that the cross-examination “would be extremely confusing to this jury.” Our criminal and civil justice systems routinely charge juries with deliberating in cases involving exceedingly complex factual and legal issues, often involving multiple parties and multiple events. The defendant’s theory here, by comparison, is rather straightforward. Indeed, with respect to the potential confusion it might cause the jury, the introduction of evidence regarding the Fil-son and Hendrix incidents is rather like the routine introduction of evidence of so-called prior bad acts against defendants charged with certain sex offenses. See, e.g., Fed.R.Evid. 414(permitting introduction of such evidence where the defendant is charged with child molestation); Cal. Evid.Code § 1108(permitting introduction of such evidence where the defendant is charged with, among other crimes, sexual battery in violation of California Penal Code § 243.4 and/or annoying or molesting a minor in violation of California Penal Code § 647.6). In such circumstances, juries are tasked with evaluating allegations regarding prior, unrelated incidents and, if they find those allegations to be true, determining their relevance as to the charged crime. If juries are deemed competent to consider such evidence, we see no reason why the jury here would not have been competent to understand the proffered cross-examination.
Finally, the trial court was concerned about the prejudice, presumably to Lara, resulting from the cross-examination. Other than as to her credibility, it is not
*1041
clear how her testimony regarding the pri- or incidents would prejudice her at all. Although the prior incidents involved sexual conduct or, at least, alleged sexual conduct, Lara did not participate by choice. Any disgust or hostility that jurors might have felt would have been lodged not with Lara, but with Filson and Hendrix.
See LaJoie,
Further, if by “prejudice” the trial court meant embarrassment to Lara, it is not clear how the testimony would be any more embarrassing than Lara’s testimony regarding the alleged incident involving Fowler. Such minimal — if any — embarrassment cannot serve as the basis to preclude relevant cross-examination.
See Davis,
We therefore conclude that the trial court’s preclusion of the cross-examination was an objectively unreasonable application of clearly established federal law as determined by the Supreme Court. There can be no doubt that the precluded cross-examination sufficiently bore on Lara’s reliability or credibility such that a jury might reasonably have questioned it. Nor were the trial court’s concerns about waste of time, confusion and prejudice sufficiently well-founded to justify precluding rather than limiting the cross-examination. Given this, the trial court’s implicit determination that precluding the cross-examination was not unreasonable, arbitrary or disproportionate given its concerns was itself objectively unreasonable.
4.
Having determined that Fowler was denied his Sixth Amendment right to cross-examination, we must now decide whether that error was harmless “assuming that the damaging potential of the [precluded] cross-examination[would otherwise have been] fully realized.”
Van Arsdall,
[1] the importance of the witness’ testimony in the prosecution’s case, [2] whether the testimony was cumulative, [3] the presence or absence of evidence corroborating or contradicting the testimony of the witness on material points, *1042 [4] the extent of cross-examination otherwise permitted, and, of course,[5] the overall strength of the prosecution’s case.
See Van Arsdall,
First,
the importance of Lara’s testimony to the State’s case cannot be overstated. Conduct qualifies as annoying or molesting for purposes of California Penal Code § 647.6 only if the conduct “would unhesitatingly disturb or irritate a normal person if directed at that person” and was “motivated by an unnatural or abnormal sexual interest in ... the alleged child victim[ ].” CALJIC 16.440;
accord People v. Lopez,
Thus, in the absence of any physical evidence of or any third-party witness to the alleged molestation, Lara’s testimony was central to the State’s case. Indeed, it
was
the State’s case and, so, the State’s case depended upon the jury believing Lara’s testimony. About this there is no serious dispute, the State conceding: “The instant case was primarily a credibility contest between Lara and [Fowler].” This alone strongly supports a finding that the error was not harmless.
Olden,
Second, as noted above, Lara’s testimony was not cumulative such that an effective cross-examination would not have undermined the State’s case. To the contrary, there was no physical evidence and no third-party witnesses to the alleged incidents. Other than Fowler, Lara was the only person that could and did testify regarding the alleged incidents.
*1043
Third,
given this absence of evidence either corroborating Fowler’s account or contradicting Lara’s account, the proffered cross-examination took on added significance. Absent the proffered cross-examination, the jury was left without a possible explanation for why Lara’s account differed so. The proffered cross-examination, however, would have provided a jury with a theory: that since, and perhaps owing to, the Hendrix incident, Lara is “a little cautious about things” and may misinterpret asexual conduct as inappropriate conduct and may unconsciously exaggerate asexual conduct such that it becomes inappropriate conduct.
Cf. Crane v. Kentucky,
Fourth,
the trial court admitted into evidence that Lara had committed theft by shoplifting and, thus, even after precluding the proffered cross-examination, had not eliminated all evidence affecting Lara’s reliability or credibility. Nonetheless, whereas the fact that Lara had committed theft by shoplifting undoubtedly bore on Lara’s character for truthfulness generally, the proffered cross-examination bore on Lara’s reliability and credibility in the specific context before the jury. Thus, the former is qualitatively different from — and does not substitute for — the latter.
See Davis,
Fifth, as explained above, the State’s case was only as strong as Lara’s testimony. Further, what we know of the jury deliberations suggests that even absent the proffered cross-examination, the jury did not consider the State’s case to be strong. The jury heard evidence for only two days, but deliberated for four. And during those four days, it requested that certain testimony be read back, then announced that it was deadlocked as to both counts, and, only after being ordered to deliberate further, rendered a verdict as to the count for annoying or molesting a minor. Even then, the jury remained deadlocked as to the count for sexual battery, as to which a mistrial ultimately was declared.
Having applied the factors listed in
Van Arsdall,
we have little trouble concluding that the error here had “ ‘substantial and injurious effect or influence in determining the jury’s verdict.’ ”
See DePetris,
IV.
The Sixth Amendment’s Confrontation Clause “ ‘comes to us on faded parchment,’ ... with a lineage that traces back to the beginnings of Western legal culture,”
Coy v. Iowa,
For the reasons expressed above, we hold that Fowler was denied this venerable and essential right and, further, that the district court erred in holding that the trial court’s order precluding cross-examination pertaining to the two prior claims by Lara of molestation was not an unreasonable application of clearly established federal law as determined by the Supreme Court. We therefore reverse and remand with instructions that the district court issue a conditional writ of habeas corpus directing that the State vacate Fowler’s conviction unless, within 90 days or as extended by the district court as reasonably necessary, the State begins anew trial proceedings against Fowler.
See Lane v. Williams,
REVERSED and REMANDED.
Notes
. A sexual battery takes place when, for the purpose of sexual arousal, sexual gratification, or sexual abuse, the defendant (1) touches an intimate part of the alleged victim while the alleged victim is (a) unlawfully restrained and the touching is against the will of the alleged victim, (b) institutionalized for medical treatment and seriously disabled or medically incapacitated and the touching is against the will of the alleged victim, or (c) unconscious of the nature of the act because the defendant fraudulently represented that the touching served a professional purpose, or (2) causes the alleged victim to masturbate or touch an intimate part of the defendant or another while the alleged victim is (a) unlawfully restrained and the touching is against the will of the alleged victim, or (b) institu *1032 tionalized for medical treatment and seriously disabled or medically incapacitated and the touching is against the will of the alleged victim. Cal.Penal Code § 243.4.
. Conduct qualifies as annoying or molesting for purposes of California Penal Code § 647.6 if the conduct "would unhesitatingly disturb or irritate a normal person if directed at that person” and was "motivated by an unnatural or abnormal sexual interest in ... the alleged child victim[].” CALJIC 16.440;
accord People v. Lopez,
. In fact, although Filson was charged with committing lewd and lascivious acts on both Lara and a friend with whom Lara was sharing a bed, Filson was convicted of committing lewd and lascivious acts only as to the friend, not Lara.
. California Evidence Code § 352 is the rough equivalent of Federal Rule of Evidence 403, stating: "The court in its discretion may exclude evidence if its probative value is substantially outweighed by the probability that its admission will (a) necessitate undue consumption of time or (b) create substantial danger of undue prejudice, of confusing the issues, or of misleading the jury.” Cal. Evid. Code § 352.
. Typically, federal courts have jurisdiction to consider a habeas petition only if the petitioner is " 'in custody’ under the conviction or sentence under attack at the time his petition is filed.”
Maleng v. Cook,
Further, although Fowler is no longer on probation, "[s]o long as the adverse consequences of a criminal conviction remain, a petition for a writ of habeas corpus is not moot, even though the petitioner's custody has expired since filing."
Spawr Optical Research, Inc.,
. The Supreme Court has likewise held that other, closely related rights are similarly limited.
E.g., Michigan v. Lucas,
. Similarly, albeit in a pre-AEDPA case, we have before recognized that exclusion of evidence tending to show that an alleged victim of sexual abuse is prone to fantasy implicates the Sixth Amendment. In
Franklin v. Henry,
. Indeed, because it expressly invoked California Evidence Code § 352, the trial court implicitly concluded that the proffered evidence was to some degree relevant. There is no occasion to employ the weighing process of California Evidence Code § 352 unless the proffered evidence, later rejected, is relevant. *1040 If irrelevant, the evidence is excluded by California Evidence Code § 350, which provides: "No evidence is admissible except relevant evidence.”
. Fowler represented to the trial court that he had under subpoena Hendrix, the detective that investigated the Hendrix incident, and the custodian of records from the Bakersfield Police Department.
. Because we reverse and remand for issuance of a conditional writ of habeas corpus, we need not reach Fowler's remaining claims.
