In 2005, the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico determined that a number of individuals in its prison system had been unlawfully admitted into an electronic supervision program. Seeking to rectify the situation, Puerto Rico attempted to reincarcerate them. After one set of fourteen individuals had been reimprisoned, another set successfully brought a civil rights suit under 42 U.S.C. § 1983 in federal district court to enjoin Puerto Rico from taking any action against them. Their reimprisoned counterparts then filed a federal habeas petition on identical grounds, which the district court similarly granted. Puerto Rico appealed both the grant of the preliminary injunction and the grant of habeas relief, and we consolidated the two appeals. 1
*870 The questions presented are the same in each case: whether Puerto Rico’s revocation of these individuals’ participation in the electronic supervision program violated the Ex Post Facto Clause or the Due Process Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment.
I.
In 1989, faced with overcrowding within its prison system, the Puerto Rico Administration of Corrections (“AOC”) issued a memorandum proposing procedures for an Electronic Supervision Program (“ESP”). The ESP would permit eligible inmates to wear electronic tracking anklets and complete the remainder of their sentences outside of prison. Acting under the authority conferred in its enabling act, see P.R. Laws Ann. tit. 4, § 1101 et seq., the AOC formalized the electronic supervision program in 1994 when it adopted Regulation No. 5065 (“the 1994 regulation”). The program’s eligibility criteria provided that convictions for certain designated offenses would bar an inmate from participating in the ESP. Because murder was not included in the list of ineligible offenses, murder convicts were initially permitted to join the program.
That changed on May 26, 1995 with the Puerto Rico legislature’s passage of Public Law 49 (“Law 49”), which amended the AOC’s enabling act to preclude murder convicts from ever participating in transition or treatment and rehabilitation programs. P.R. Laws Ann. tit. 4, § 1136a. The AOC originally interpreted Law 49 to apply retroactively, blocking admission to the ESP for all individuals convicted of murder. 2 But a number of inmates who had been convicted of murders committed before Law 49’s effective date separately filed suits in state courts challenging the application of the law to them. 3 These courts determined that retroactive application would violate the Ex Post Facto Clause of the U.S. Constitution. The AOC did not appeal these rulings. Rather, in August 1996, it issued an internal agency memorandum instructing corrections personnel not to apply Law 49 to any inmate sentenced before the law’s effective date. Under this new policy, a number of murder convicts who had committed their crimes prior to May 26, 1995, were admitted into the ESP.
In 1999, the AOC promulgated Regulation No. 6041 (“the 1999 regulation”). The 1999 regulation provided, among other things, that inmates must be within three years of release under their minimum sentence before they could become eligible for the ESP (“the three-years provision”). In addition, the regulation restated Law 49’s prohibition on murder convicts participating in the ESP. Consistent with its position that Law 49 was non-retroactive, the AOC did not apply this section of the 1999 regulation to those who had been convicted before Law 49’s effective date. It remains *871 unclear whether the other sections of the 1999 regulation, such as the three-years provision, were also meant to be non-retroactive. Over the next few years, there was much confusion about and litigation over which regulation applied to whom and just how widely Law 49 should apply.
Meanwhile, independent of the wrangling over the scope of Law 49, the Commonwealth had begun to investigate allegations that certain inmates had acquired ESP privileges through bribery. It did not uncover any evidence supporting those allegations. Nevertheless, in the course of the investigations, it concluded that fourteen 4 participants in the ESP did not actually qualify for the program. Although the participants all happened to have been convicted of murder, that fact was entirely incidental to the Commonwealth’s initial conclusion that they were ineligible. Instead, it reasoned that these participants did not meet the 1999 regulation’s three-years provision, apparently without considering whether that provision applied to them in the first place. On April 6-7, 2005, these participants were arrested and reincarcerated without being told the justification. Following a pro forma administrative hearing in which they were unable to present any evidence on their own behalf, they petitioned for a writ of habeas corpus in the Court of First Instance of Puerto Rico, seeking release back into the ESP. These reimprisoned individuals, who would come to be known as the GonzálezFuentes petitioners, alleged violations of the Ex Post Facto Clause and of their right to due process. At this point, Puerto Rico abandoned its reliance on the three-years provision and — for the first time— advanced the petitioners’ status as murder convicts as a basis for reimprisonment.
The then-current administration, recently installed following the gubernatorial elections, had now resolved that the Ex Post Facto Clause would not actually prevent the retroactive application of Law 49 to ESP participants who had been convicted before May 26, 1995. In its view, both the executive officials who had first litigated the issue and the lower courts which had adjudicated it had misinterpreted ex post facto doctrine. The battleground for this new position was the GonzálezFuentes petitioners’ habeas proceedings. Though the Court of First Instance sided with the petitioners and granted them habeas corpus relief, the Puerto Rico Court of Appeals disagreed, revoking the writ. The petitioners then appealed to the Puerto Rico Supreme Court.
On August 26, 2005, before the Puerto Rico Supreme Court had ruled on the matter, Puerto Rico’s Secretary of Justice announced the government’s intention to reimprison all participants in the ESP who had been convicted of murder. It based its decision not on infractions of program rules, but rather on the new administration’s conclusion that these program participants were all ineligible for the ESP under Law 49. That same day, a number of murder convicts participating in the ESP filed a complaint in federal district court under 42 U.S.C. § 1983 seeking a preliminary injunction to halt the revocation of ESP privileges. These participants, who came to be known as the Rivera-Feliciano plaintiffs, echoed the González-Fuentes petitioners’ arguments that reimprisonment would violate the Ex Post Facto and Due Process Clauses.
The fates of these two sets of partici
*872
pants would soon become intertwined.
5
In September 2005, the district court granted the Rivera-Feliciano plaintiffs’ request for a preliminary injunction. After the Commonwealth appealed that decision to this court, we elected to stay all proceedings in the case pending the Puerto Rico Supreme Court’s resolution of the González-Fuentes petitioners’ habeas petition.
See Rivera-Feliciano v. Acevedo-Vila,
In March 2006, the Puerto Rico Supreme Court denied the petition. It concluded that the nullification of ESP privileges posed no ex post facto problem because the petitioners committed their respective crimes before the program had even been created. The court also ruled that the nullification did not offend due process because the petitioners did not possess a protected liberty interest in remaining in the program. It reasoned that the plain terms of Law 49 had rendered the petitioners ineligible for the program, such that their admission into it was nothing more than “administrative error.” According to the court, the petitioners could not develop a protected interest in retaining a mistaken grant of liberty.
Following their loss in the Puerto Rico courts, the petitioners filed a subsequent habeas corpus petition in federal district court under 28 U.S.C. §§ 2241 and 2254. Again they alleged violations of the Ex Post Facto and Due Process Clauses. The district court then consolidated the González-Fuentes habeas case with the RiveraFeliciano § 1983 case.
The Commonwealth filed a motion to dismiss the Rivera-Feliciano claims, which the district court denied. Unfazed, the Commonwealth then moved to dissolve the preliminary injunction in that case. The district court again denied the motion, stating in its order that the new motion was merely “rehashing the arguments presented in [the Commonwealth’s] previous requests to dismiss and already addressed by this Court.” After this second denial, the Commonwealth filed an interlocutory appeal.
Shortly after this episode, the district court granted habeas relief to the González-Fuentes petitioners, concluding that the Puerto Rico Supreme Court’s decision was in multiple respects contrary to, and an unreasonable application of, clearly established federal law. The district court first held that the Puerto Rico Supreme Court’s interpretation of the Ex Post Facto Clause was contrary to the United States Supreme Court’s decision in
Lynce v. Mathis,
II.
A.
The two most commonly trodden paths under federal law for redress of complaints related to state imprisonment are through the filing of a petition for habeas corpus or a civil-rights complaint under 42 U.S.C. § 1983. Despite the overlap in subject matter, the two schemes are not interchangeable. The Supreme Court has explained that it would “wholly frustrate
*873
explicit congressional intent” to allow plaintiffs to circumvent the federal habeas statute’s narrow prerequisites simply by invoking § 1983.
Preiser v. Rodriguez,
With one set of appellees here relying on the federal habeas statute and another set relying on § 1983, there is some question at the outset whether both groups should have proceeded exclusively under one scheme or the other.
6
The dispute before us is an example of “[t]he difficult intermediate case” where an inmate is seeking neither a change in conditions nor an earlier release, but rather a less restrictive form of custody.
Graham v. Broglin,
In Graham, the Seventh Circuit adopted the following approach:
If the prisoner is seeking what can be fairly described as a quantum change in the level of custody — whether outright freedom, or freedom subject to the limited reporting and financial constraints of bond or parole or probation ... then habeas corpus is his remedy. But if he is seeking a different program or location or environment, then he is challenging the conditions rather than the fact of his confinement and his remedy is under civil rights law, even if, as will usually be the case, the program or location or environment that he is challenging is more restrictive than the alternative that he seeks.
Id.; see also Dotson,
We think that the difference between the ESP here and incarceration in a prison can fairly be described as a quantum change in the level of custody. As we describe below in our discussion of procedural due process, participants in the ESP were able to live with family members, work daily jobs, attend church, and reside in their own homes rather than in an insti
*874
tutional setting.
See Graham,
The Rivera-Feliciano plaintiffs, meanwhile, filed their claim in an attempt to preserve the status quo. Their level of custody had yet to be increased, and they were trying to keep it that way. Thus, because custodial status would be determined as of the date a habeas petition is filed,
Carafas v. LaVallee,
In sum, the two actions were styled properly. We may take them as we find them.
B.
While our exercise of appellate jurisdiction is not at issue in the GonzálezFuentes action, the Rivera-Feliciano plaintiffs contest it with respect to the district court’s preliminary injunction. Since Puerto Rico’s motion to dissolve the injunction was, according to the district court, a mere restatement of arguments that the court had already rejected when it denied Puerto Rico’s motion to dismiss, the Rivera-Feliciano plaintiffs claim that the timeliness of the appeal should be measured from the earlier of the court’s two *875 denials. Therefore, the argument goes, the clock had already expired by the time Puerto Rico filed its notice of appeal from the denial of the motion to dissolve, and we cannot hear the claim.
This is a nonstarter. The Commonwealth’s motion to dismiss was premised on the argument that the Rivera-Feliciano plaintiffs should have proceeded under the habeas statute rather than § 1983. When the district court determined that § 1983 was indeed an appropriate vehicle, Puerto Rico filed a motion to dissolve the injunction, which the court denied. A district court’s denial of a motion to dissolve an injunctive order, unlike a denial of a typical motion to dismiss, is immediately appealable on interlocutory review. See 28 U.S.C. § 1292(a)(1) (granting appellate jurisdiction over interlocutory orders “refusing to dissolve or modify injunctions”). The only question relevant to our exercise of appellate jurisdiction is whether Puerto Rico filed a timely appeal from an appeal-able order. Because Puerto Rico did so, we have jurisdiction to review the order.
C.
Procedural matters now behind us, we set forth the governing standards of review. Though both groups of appellees prevailed in the district court on essentially the same claims, our standard of review differs for each set of claims because the two sets arrive here in distinct procedural postures.
As to the Rivera-Feliciano plaintiffs, Puerto Rico appeals from the district court’s grant of a preliminary injunction, which we review with reference to the same four-factor test that the district court employs when deciding whether injunctive relief is appropriate in the first instance. These factors include: (1) the likelihood that the party requesting the injunction will succeed on the merits of its claim or claims; (2) the potential for irreparable harm to this party if the injunction is denied; (3) the balance of the relative hardships that will ensue following either a grant or denial; and (4) the effect (if any) that the grant or denial will have on the public interest.
See R.I. Dep’t of Envtl. Mgmt v. United States,
As to the González-Fuentes petitioners, Puerto Rico appeals from the district court’s grant of habeas corpus relief, which we review de novo.
O’Laughlin v. O’Brien,
(1) resulted in a decision that was contrary to, or involved an unreasonable application of, clearly established Federal law as determined by the Supreme Court of the United States; or (2) resulted in a decision that was based on an unreasonable determination of the facts in light of the evidence presented in the State court proceeding.
28 U.S.C. § 2254(d).
Only the first prong of this standard applies here. A state court decision is “contrary to” clearly established Supreme Court law if it “contradicts the governing law set forth in the Supreme Court’s cases or confronts a set of facts that are materially indistinguishable from a decision of the Supreme Court and nevertheless arrives at a result different from its precedent.”
John v. Russo,
Normally, an analysis involving these different standards of review would require different objects of review: the federal district court’s decision in the § 1983 case on the one hand and the Puerto Rico Supreme Court’s decision in the habeas case on the other. Nevertheless, if we reject a particular § 1983 claim on the merits, it would necessarily mean that the Puerto Rico Supreme Court’s decision, for AEDPA purposes, is to that extent not an unreasonable application of clearly established federal law; a separate habeas analysis of that same claim would thus be superfluous. For purposes of explication, then, our discussion in the sections that follow centers on the federal district court’s analysis and applies equally to the resolution of both the § 1983 and habeas claims, except where noted.
D.
Turning to the merits, Puerto Rico argues that the district court erred in concluding that the decision to revoke the appellees’ participation in the ESP violated the Ex Post Facto Clause, U.S. Const, art. I, § 10, which provides that “[no] State shall ... pass any ... ex post facto Law.” This provision “forbids not only legislative creation of new criminal liability after the event but also a legislative increase in punishment after the event.”
United States v. Lata,
*877 the notion that laws, whatever their form, which purport to make innocent acts criminal after the event, or to aggravate an offense, are harsh and oppressive, and that the criminal quality attributable to an act, either by the legal definition of the offense or by the nature or amount of the punishment imposed for its commission, should not be altered by legislative enactment, after the fact, to the disadvantage of the accused.
Beazell v. Ohio,
The district court found that Puerto Rico’s actions violated the Ex Post Facto Clause as interpreted by the Supreme Court in
Lynce v. Mathis,
The Court held that the retroactive application of the new law violated the Ex Post Facto Clause because the law increased the punishment for the petitioner’s crime. Observing that the statute rendered “ineligible for early release a class of prisoners who were
previously eligible,” id.
at 447,
Despite factual similarities, we think that
Lynce
is inapposite to the case before us. “Critical to relief under the
Ex Post Facto
Clause is not an individual’s right to less punishment, but the lack of fair notice and governmental restraint when the legislature increases punishment beyond what was prescribed when the crime was consummated.”
Weaver v. Graham,
Here, by contrast, the appellees committed their crimes at various points that predated the very creation of the ESP, much less the ESP’s extension to those convicted of murder.
10
As a result,
*878
Puerto Rico’s decision to disqualify the inmates from participating in the ESP had no effect on the punishment assigned by law when the act to be punished occurred. Then, as now, the crimes were punishable only by a period of
imprisonment
— not by a period of imprisonment subject to reduction through the ESP. That the appellees were participating in the ESP in the interim between the 1994 regulation and the passage of Law 49 is thus irrelevant.
11
See Stiver v. Meko,
The appellees artfully attempt to argue around this distinction. They observe that at the time of their crimes, the AOC had the discretion under its enabling act to create some community-based supervision program and extend it to murder convicts, whether or not the AOC had yet established the ESP specifically. See P.R. Laws Ann. tit. 4, § 1112(b)(3) & (c) (authorizing the AOC to “[u]se the method of rehabilitation in the community to the greatest possible extent” and to “draft ... the internal regulations needed for the ... rehabilitation programs of the inmates of the correctional population”). The appellees contend that Law 49 violated the Ex Post Facto Clause inasmuch as it retroactively prohibited the AOC from exercising this discretion. The absence of discretion, according to them, renders the punishment that they now face more onerous than the punishment assigned by law at the time of their offense: whereas they were originally sentenced under a regime in which the AOC had the authority to eventually grant them a supervised release of some sort, they are now being punished under a regime in which no such authority exists.
The district court adopted this theory, analogizing the case to Lynce> where “the fact that [the petitioner] was not necessari *879 ly entitled to the credits when he pleaded guilty made no difference to the U.S. Supreme Court.” Feliciano v. Acevedo-Vila, No. 05-1910, slip op. at 30 (D.P.R. Jul 8, 2008). What made a difference, rather, was the mere eligibility for early release, and according to the district court, “[t]he elimination of that eligibility — notwithstanding that it came with no guarantee— was sufficient to offend ex post facto principles.” Id.
We do not find the analogy persuasive. The appellees’ argument would have us relate retroactive measures not only to the penal schemes that existed at the time of the offense, but also to the entire universe of penal schemes that could legally be crafted at some future point, given the law in force at the time of the offense. Such an expansive reading would severely hamper the AOC’s ability to experiment with alternative sentencing for its existing prison population. For any new rehabilitative program it might envision, the AOC would face a Hobson’s choice of either extending it to those convicted of murder prior to Law 49’s effective date or else forgoing the program entirely. An inability to tailor the sentence to the class of offender would thus become the price of developing alternatives to incarceration.
That is a price that the Ex Post Facto Clause should not and does not exact on our prison system. No ex post facto violation occurs where legislation “creates only the most speculative and attenuated possibility of producing the prohibited effect of increasing the measure of punishment.”
Cal. Dep’t of Corr. v. Morales,
The Puerto Rico Supreme Court held that the law applied here is no more onerous than the law in effect at the time of conviction, and we believe that the preceding analysis provides more than enough reason to reject the González-Fuentes petitioners’ ex post facto claim under the deferential scrutiny of AEDPA review. Moreover, because we would reach this conclusion even on de novo review, our analysis applies with equal force to the Rivera-Feliciano plaintiffs. The district court erred in finding an ex post facto violation against either group.
E.
The Due Process Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment, which prohibits a state from depriving any person of “life, liberty, or property, without due process of law,” U.S. Const, amend. XIV, § 1, has both a substantive and a procedural component.
DePoutot v. Raffaelly,
1.
“The substantive component of due process protects against ‘certain government actions regardless of the fairness of the procedures used to implement them.’ ”
Souza v. Pina,
“[T]he criteria used for identifying government action proscribed by the constitutional guarantee of substantive due process vary depending on whether the challenged action is legislative or executive in nature.”
DePoutot,
The “shock the conscience” test has been labeled “admittedly imprecise,”
Hawkins v. Freeman,
Nevertheless, courts have made some inroads toward a more concrete doctrine over the years. It is well established that “negligence, without more, is simply insufficient to meet the conscience-shocking standard,”
J.R. v. Gloria,
Of course, what may be eon-science-shocking conduct in one situation may not be in another, as “the analysis will vary with the subject matter and the circumstances.”
Pagan v. Calderon,
It is this deliberate indifference standard that the appellees rely on. 14 Both sets of appellees make a bold claim, asserting that reimprisonment would in itself constitute a reckless disregard for their loss of liberty, irrespective of how the AOC might choose to execute its objective. The González-Fuentes petitioners supplement this claim with an additional, narrower one. They posit that we should find deliberate indifference not only in the decision to reimprison, but also in the methods through which the AOC actually went about implementing that decision.
We begin with the version of the argument that is advanced by both sets of appellees. The ESP participants held a significant interest in the finality of their relaxed custodial status. Prior to this litigation, all of the appellees had spent multiple years (some as many as five) living in their homes rather than behind prison walls, and they had no reason to doubt that that arrangement would be permanent so long as they abided by the terms *882 of the program. It took a decade for the Commonwealth to change its mind on the ex post facto implications of Law 49, but once it did so, it moved swiftly and in apparent disregard of the lives that appellees had begun to build for themselves. It can scarcely be denied that all of the appellees were blindsided by the new administration’s about-face on Law 49’s retroactivity.
Against this backdrop, the appellees argue that substantive due process should protect roots running so deep against sudden uprooting. It shocks the conscience, they argue, that “scores of people will have to live out the personal tragedy of [sic], after accomplishing what the state wanted them to — rehabilitation—they should have to leave behind their homes, families, jobs, churches, to be imprisoned for many more years, all for no particular reason of importance.” Appellees’ Br. at 53-54.
The impact of reincarceration on the appellees is, of course, substantial. By waiting until 2005, the Commonwealth did more than squash a mere expectation of liberty. It set about actually undoing the liberty itself.
See Morrissey v. Brewer,
Nevertheless, we do not agree that the Commonwealth’s actions rise to the level of a substantive due process violation. The appellees are mistaken in their assertion that the Commonwealth acted for “no particular reason of importance.” The Commonwealth’s executive branch necessarily has a fundamental interest in fidelity to legislative directives. The determination that the Ex Post Facto Clause would not implicate the retroactive application of Law 49 transformed the appellees’ ESP participation into a clear violation of the AOC’s enabling act. The Commonwealth had and has a justifiable interest in correcting that violation, even if it once believed that no violation had occurred. 15
*883
The appellees labor to convince us that a violation of the statute as currently interpreted is irrelevant so long as their participation in the supervision program was lawful at the time it was granted. Yet while this lawful-at-the-time theory may in some circumstances validate the appellees’ own interest in their liberty, as we explain below in our discussion of procedural due process, we do not agree that it somehow invalidates the government’s countervailing interest in faithful application of the law. The proper question from the government’s perspective is what is lawful
now,
no matter what was considered lawful at the time. Just because the appellees’ liberty interest was valid ab initio does not somehow divest the Commonwealth of its legitimate stake in the correct application of the law as it is currently understood. And as that law is currently understood, it is illegal for the appellees to
retain
their ESP status, even if it was legal for them to have acquired it in the first place. Morever, as the Fourth Circuit explained under analogous circumstances in
Hawkins v. Freeman,
the Commonwealth possesses an interest in avoiding “the precedential risk of acquiescing in irregular enforcement of state law.”
The Commonwealth’s interest in correcting error is central to the shock-the-conscience analysis. In
Lewis,
the Supreme Court explained that the executive actions most likely to shock the conscience are those that are “intended to injure in some way unjustifiable by any government interest.”
We think this point is implicit in our earlier decision in
DeWitt v. Ventetoulo.
In
DeWitt,
which the appellees rely on here, we found a due process violation in the reimprisonment of a Rhode Island parolee who had already been at liberty for several months despite the fact that his parole had been granted in violation of state law. Explaining that “what is true for the usual case is often not true in the extreme case,”
appears to have been singled out primarily to relieve the state of the trouble of conducting a parole revocation hearing. The impression is hard to avoid that the resentencing here primarily serves only to skirt the minimal due process obligations that attach to parole revocations, that the state could conduct such a proceeding at minimal cost, and that the state’s own self-proclaimed interest in vindicating [the law in question] is limited to this case.
Id. at 35-36.
In this case, by contrast, there is no doubt as to the thoroughness of Puerto Rico’s plans to reimprison every individual participating in the ESP in violation of Law 49. Puerto Rico is engaging in precisely the sort of wide-scale efforts that we emphasized were lacking in DéWitt. We conclude that given the circumstances here, the government has advanced a legitimate interest to justify its actions. The decision to reimprison the appellees following their time participating in the ESP does not in itself shock the conscience and therefore does not infringe substantive due process.
The González-Fuentes petitioners, having already been reimprisoned without any mention of Law 49, advance a more nuanced argument. They claim that the circumstances of their arrest and reimprisonment demonstrate that the Commonwealth’s purported interest in vindicating Law 49 is mere pretext. They begin with the fact that the AOC initially found them to be ineligible for the ESP not because of their status as murder convicts, but because they each had more than three years left to serve the minimum of their respective sentences, contravening the 1999 regulation’s three-years provision. Whether the 1999 regulation ever even applied to the petitioners is still contested, but the petitioners were reincarcerated only on the assumption that it did. Even that justification, the petitioners point out, developed during a fruitless investigation into allegations of bribery. Based on all these events, the petitioners theorize that after the bribery investigation yielded no evidence of foul play, the Commonwealth engaged in a series of insincere, post-hoc rationalizations for what at bottom was only an effort to take a tough-on-crime stance.
The district court agreed with the petitioners’ theory. It found evidence not only in the fact that Law 49 was not mentioned until long after the arrests and reimprisonments, but also in the Commonwealth’s commission of several procedural violations while executing those arrests and reimprisonments. In particular, the court noted: the initial decision to reincarcerate the appellees was made by a low ranking technician who was not actually familiar with ESP regulations; ESP officials were never informed of the intention to arrest *885 the appellees, let alone consulted regarding the decision; the arrest orders contained photocopied signatures of an individual who had not officially authorized its use; various procedural due process protections were never afforded; and finally, when asked during an evidentiary hearing, no high-ranking AOC personnel could recall how any of these decisions were actually made. The sum total of all these factors evinced what the district court found to be an “apathy and disdain” for the petitioners’ plight accompanied by no legitimate governmental interest.
We take no issue with the district court’s rebuke of the Commonwealth for cavalierly disregarding the petitioners’ dignity. Nevertheless, we still cannot say that this disregard rises to the level of a substantive due process violation. To begin with, the petitioners do not allege that the Commonwealth conjured up its initial justification merely for the purpose of reimprisoning them. The most they have ever argued is that the justification was incorrect because the entire 1999 regulation, including its three-years provision, never actually applied to them. Given that the 1999 regulation was nominally in force when the appellees were released into the ESP, the Commonwealth’s reasonable confusion over which regulation applied is not shocking, let alone conscience-shocking. 17 Thus, even though the Commonwealth did not invoke Law 49 until the state habeas stage, its interest has remained the same throughout: adhering to its own laws. The only thing that shifted was the law in question. That shift does not lessen the legitimacy of the interest.
As for the flaws that the district court catalogued, all of them concerned matters of procedure — how, rather than why, the Commonwealth pursued its objective. Those flaws may give rise to claims based on procedural due process, but we have difficulty accepting the notion that they also add up to a substantive due process claim when viewed in the aggregate. Like its shift from the three-years provision to Law 49’s exclusion of murder convicts, the Commonwealth’s violations of procedural protocol do not negate its substantive interests.
The shock-the-conscience test is an extremely demanding one, and challenges analyzed under it rarely succeed.
See
Matthew D. Umhofer,
Confusing Pursuits: Sacramento v. Lewis and the Future of Substantive Due Process in the Executive Setting,
41 Santa Clara L.Rev. 437, 475-76 (2001) (noting infrequency of successful challenges). The appellees’ claim here meets the same fate as most of its peers. We are ultimately bound by the fact that substantive due process is not “a font of tort law,”
Lewis,
2.
The district court also concluded that the manner in which Puerto Rico reimprisoned the appellees violated their right to procedural due process. “We examine procedural due process questions in two steps: the first asks whether there exists a liberty or property interest which has been interfered with by the State; the second examines whether the procedures attendant upon that deprivation were constitutionally sufficient.”
Ky. Dep’t of Corrections v. Thompson,
i.
Although “[tjhere is no constitutional or inherent right of a convicted person to be conditionally released before the expiration of a valid sentence,”
Greenholtz v. Inmates of Neb. Penal and Corr. Complex,
The liberty of a parolee enables him to do a wide range of things open to persons who have never been convicted of any crime.... Subject to the conditions of his parole, he can be gainfully em *887 ployed and is free to be with family and friends and to form the other enduring attachments of normal life. Though the State properly subjects him to many restrictions not applicable to other citizens, his condition is very different from that of confinement in a prison.... The parolee has relied on at least an implicit promise that parole will be revoked only if he fails to live up to the parole conditions.
At the same time, however, “[t]he Constitution does not ... guarantee that the convicted prisoner will be placed in any particular prison.”
Meachum v. Fano,
How the Due Process Clause should apply to the liberty interests of prisoners serving sentences in alternative forms of confinement remains an open question after
Sandin.
Courts have resolved the issue “by comparing the specific conditional release in the case before them with the liberty interest in parole as characterized by
Morrissey." Holcomb v. Lykens,
This warrants a closer look at the lives that the appellees were permitted to lead while participating in the program. As with all participants in the ESP, they were serving out the remainder of their respective prison sentences in their homes, where they were free to live with others. At the time of their reincarceration, the González-Fuentes petitioners were living with either close relatives, significant others, or spouses, and in many cases with children. The current living arrangements of the Rivera-Feliciano plaintiffs are similar. All of the appellees were generally required to remain at home, but had been authorized to leave in order to work a job or attend university. They had to submit to a routine list of restrictions on alcohol consumption and substance abuse. Finally, to ensure compliance, the appellees were made to wear an unremovable, wa *888 terproof electronic tracking anklet at all times.
This arrangement is not far from that of the parolee in
Morrissey.
It is true that by having to gain the AOC’s approval before they could leave the house, the appellees were confined in a way that parolees typically are not. Yet after having secured approval for work release, their lives were similar in practice. They woke up in their homes. They went to work. They returned to their homes. On Sundays, some even attended church in their local communities. In short, the appellees here had the liberty to “be gainfully employed” and “be with family and friends and to form the other enduring attachments of normal life.”
Morrissey,
Puerto Rico argues that our judgment here is constrained by our decision in
Dominique v. Weld,
At the outset, we note that
Dominique’s
approach has limits. In that case, we focused exclusively on the question of whether the challenged confinement to which the inmate was returned constituted an ordinary incident of prison life. That analysis was narrower than the one the Supreme Court subsequently employed in
Young,
which also considered the nature of the program from which the inmate had been removed. It may very well be that a consideration of the work-release program at issue in
Dominique
would compel the conclusion that the petitioner there held no protected liberty interest. But if
Sandin
requires us to train our eyes solely on the comparison between the challenged confinement and the ordinary incidents of prison life, without any consideration of the freedoms inherent in the outside-of-prison arrangement that is being revoked, then it would seem that a parolee would hold no liberty interest, either. In light of
Young,
which found a conditional release program so similar to parole as to merit due process protection, that conclusion cannot possibly be correct. Indeed,
San-
*889
din
itself relied on
Morrissey,
the very touchstone for a parolee’s due process rights.
See
When we attempted to interpret
Sandin
in our
Dominique
opinion, we did not yet have the benefit of
Young,
which was handed down the following year. We now think that
Young
clarifies
San-din’?
holding.
See Kim v. Hurston,
This is not to question Dominique’s ultimate holding, as the case before us is distinguishable on at least one critical fact. The transitional work-release program in
Dominique
required the plaintiff to reside in a correctional facility.
See
Other circuits have emphasized the significance of the difference between confinement in an institutional setting and confinement within the home. In
Asquith v. Department of Corrections,
It is true that the electronic monitoring severely curtailed the privacy that the appellees would traditionally enjoy in their homes. Yet if confinement within the home did not redound to their privacy, it still redounded to their liberty. The ESP, unlike institutional confinement of any kind, allowed the appellees to live with their loved ones, form relationships with neighbors, lay down roots in their community, and reside in a dwelling of their own choosing (albeit subject to certain limitations) rather than in a cell designated by the government. Even without creating an expectation of privacy, what the ESP afforded the appellees was included in the constitutionally protected prerogative to “establish a home.”
Meyer v. Nebraska,
For these reasons, we believe that the appellees’ arrangement was sufficiently similar to traditional parole — far more like parole than the work release program in Dominique — to merit protection under the Due Process Clause.
ii.
Even accepting that participation in the ESP could theoretically form the basis for a protected liberty interest, Puerto Rico contends that the appellees’ procedural due process claim should still fail because they never lawfully acquired that interest in the first place. The argument’s logic proceeds in five steps: (1) the appellees were only able to receive their ESP privileges because lower courts had held that the Ex Post Facto Clause would bar the retrospective application of Law 49 to individuals who committed offenses earlier than May 26, 1995; (2) subsequently, however, that interpretation was rejected by the Puerto Rico Supreme Court on collateral review (a ruling that, as we explained above, we do not disturb here); (3) once the constitutional impediment had been removed, Law 49 required retrospective application; (4) retrospective application would render the original grant of ESP privileges to the appellees void ab initio; (5) therefore, that grant cannot confer any protected interest under the Due Process Clause.
In support of this argument, Puerto Rico points to a line of Commonwealth cases establishing that, as far as the Due Process Clause is concerned, an “unlawful” grant of liberty is no grant of liberty at all. This may be another version of the Puerto Rico Supreme Court’s position that “administrative errors” are not capable of creating liberty interests. There is some federal precedent for this proposition, though none of it has been invoked at any point in this litigation.
See Jenkins v. Currier,
Taking all of this into account, the true question presented is not whether the appellees can develop a liberty interest in the fruits of an unlawful agency action, but whether the appellees can develop a liberty interest in the fruits of an agency action that is lawful at the time but whose legal basis is undermined in a subsequent and unrelated proceeding. Neither side offers any case law to answer this question. 23
Based on our own review of the issue, we are not prepared to say that an otherwise protected liberty interest granted pursuant to a final judgment with preclusive effect can somehow be rendered invisible to the Due Process Clause through a subsequent proceeding. As the Supreme Court once observed, “[t]he past cannot always be erased by a new judicial declaration.”
Chicot County Drainage Dist. v. Baxter State Bank,
A conclusion on collateral review that lower courts should never have imposed a particular ex post facto limitation on Law 49 does not alter the fact that they
did
impose a particular ex post facto limitation on Law 49. Because that limitation was never challenged (let alone overturned) on direct appeal, the appellees in this action were able to acquire a grant of liberty stamped with the imprimatur of the Commonwealth judiciary. That fact bears not only on the appellees’ justifiable reliance, but also on the validity ab initio of the grant itself.
See Littlefield v. Caton,
iii.
“Once it is determined that due process applies, the question remains what process is due.”
Morrissey,
*893
Indeed, Puerto Rico violated the petitioners’ right to advance notice on two separate occasions: first at the agency level, when the purported justification for reimprisonment was the 1999 regulation, and then again in the state habeas proceedings, when the justification suddenly changed to Law 49. We agree with the Second Circuit that “[w]hen procedural due process requires an explanation of the ground for termination of a liberty interest, it requires a statement of the actual ground, and if an initial ground is changed, the person deprived of liberty is entitled to know the new ground.”
Kim,
Also problematic was the fact that the petitioners had to wait two weeks after them arrest before receiving any opportunity to contest the revocation. In
Morrissey,
the Supreme Court stated that an arrested parolee is entitled to a preliminary inquiry “as promptly as convenient after arrest while information is fresh and sources are available” in order to establish reasonable grounds for detention pending a final hearing.
The appellees are therefore correct in claiming that Puerto Rico violated (in the case of the petitioners) 26 and is threatening to violate (in the case of the plaintiffs) their right to procedural due process.
iv.
Yet establishing that rights were or are likely to be violated does not necessarily entitle the appellees to the particular remedies that they seek. If an adequate hearing and pre-deprivation notice could still serve some relevant fact-finding purpose, the González-Fuentes petitioners might very well deserve readmission into the ESP pending a procedurally sufficient revocation process, and the Rivera-Feliciano plaintiffs might equally well deserve an injunction that would ensure such sufficient process remains the rule. But the procedures that should have been provided all along would do the appellees little good now. Puerto Rico’s current justification for the deprivation of their liberty rests on a pure question of law: whether retroactive application of Law 49 withstands ex post facto and substantive due process challenges. Once we acknowledge, as we do today, that the answer to this question is yes, there is nothing left for the appellees to challenge — no matter what further procedures we might order. 27 They eer *894 tainly would not be entitled to another forum in which to rehash their failed legal challenge to Law 49; on that issue, these proceedings have already given them all the process that they were due. And so long as Law 49 remains applicable to them, there is no dispute on any issue, factual or legal, that could plausibly secure them their liberty.
“[I]f the hearing mandated by the Due Process Clause is to serve any useful purpose, there must be some factual dispute ... which has some significant bearing” on the underlying deprivation.
Codd v. Velger,
[Wjhether or not a particular procedural element normally seems appropriate to a certain kind of proceeding, the Due Process Clause does not require process unless, in the individual case, there is a relevant factual dispute between the parties. Just as courts do not hold hearings when there is no “genuine” and “material” issue of fact in dispute between the parties, see Fed. Rule Civ. Proc. 56 (summary judgment), so the Due Process Clause does not entitle an inmate to additional disciplinary hearing-procedure ... unless there is a factual dispute (relevant to guilt) that the additional procedure might help to resolve.
Sandin,
As a postscript, we emphasize that this conclusion derives from concerns over remedies rather than over rights. Our decision does not preclude the appellees from seeking some other form of relief, such as monetary damages. “[T]he right to procedural due process is ‘absolute’ in the sense that it does not depend upon the merits of a claimant’s substantive assertions.”
Carey v. Piphus,
III.
For the reasons described above, we reverse the district court’s grant of habeas corpus to the González-Fuentes petitioners and annul the writ. We also vacate the district court’s preliminary injunction and remand the case to the district court for proceedings consistent with this opinion. Each side shall bear its own costs.
Notes
. The appellants are, or were, executive officials within the Puerto Rico government. For the sake of simplicity, we refer to them collectively as "Puerto Rico” or “the Commonwealth.” We do not at this time take up the case-captioning matter of whether any of the successors in office to any of these parties *870 should be substituted for the named defendants/respondents.
. Law 49 did contain a grandfather clause that preserved the eligibility of all those already participating in the program as of the date of the law's passage. That clause did not, however, extend to those who were not participating in the program prior to that date. Because each of the appellees in this case committed the crime of murder before the effective date of Law 49 and began participation in the ESP after the effective date of Law 49, the grandfather clause is irrelevant to them.
. Puerto Rico is the functional equivalent of a state for all purposes relevant to this case. Thus, as we have done elsewhere, we will sometimes refer to “state courts” or issues of "state law,” notwithstanding Puerto Rico's unique commonwealth status.
See, e.g., R.G. Fin. Corp. v. Vergara-Nunez,
. Because two of these petitioners have since passed away, only twelve of the original fourteen remain.
. We subsequently refer to both sets collectively as "the appellees” except where the distinction between them is relevant to the discussion.
. In our previous foray into this litigation, we noted the difference but declined to address the issue further.
See Rivera-Feliciano,
. In a recent unpublished decision, a panel of the Tenth Circuit questioned whether
Graham's
"quantum of custody" inquiry had survived the Supreme Court’s decision in
Sandin
v.
Conner,
. We recognize that a future restraint on liberty may provide a basis for habeas jurisdiction if it is imminent and inevitable.
See, e.g., Hensley v. Mun. Court,
Here, the record does not indicate that any formal proceedings to reincarcerate the Rivera-Feliciano plaintiffs have ever been initiated. The only guarantee is the Secretary of Justice’s public proclamation. Without a doubt, the odds are great that the Commonwealth will follow through on that proclamation if it is allowed to do so, but that outcome is not a legal certainty. It remains, rather, a matter of executive discretion. We do not consider the exercise of that discretion to be sufficiently inevitable to justify the use of habeas corpus.
See id.; cf. Edmunds v. Won Bae Chang,
. Although the González-Fuentes petitioners filed under § 2241 as well, § 2254 ultimately governs the relief that they seek. Section 2241, which does not contain many of the hurdles that § 2254 places before habeas petitioners, may be used to attack the manner in which a sentence is executed, as opposed to the sentence itself.
Muniz v. Sabol,
. Many of the inmates committed their crimes before the ESP’s informal inception in *878 1989. Some, however, committed their crime after this date but before the program's official establishment in 1994. The Puerto Rico Supreme Court found that because the Commonwealth’s Administrative Procedure Act required notice-and-comment procedures in order for an agency’s action to have any legal force, the AOC’s action in 1989 was "not a ‘legislative’ act capable of activating the protection against ex post facto laws.” González Fuentes v. Puerto Rico, No. AC-2005-48, slip op. at 18 (P.R. Mar.29, 2006). Because the parties have made no argument on appeal for treating an offense committed between 1989 and 1994 differently than an offense committed before 1989, we do not address the issue.
. Puerto Rico's actions could arguably present an ex post facto issue for inmates who committed murder in the year-long period between the effective dates of the 1994 regulation and Law 49. We need not decide the issue here, however, as all of the inmates in these appeals committed their crimes prior to the enactment of the 1994 regulation.
. The appellees’ reliance on
Weaver v. Graham
is similarly misplaced. The petitioner in
Weaver
committed his offense at a time when a statute already in force provided a formula for receiving gain-time credits that would reduce the time of imprisonment. Years later, the state passed a statute that created a new, less generous formula for receiving gain-time credits. Going forward, the state applied this new statute and formula to all inmates — including those who, like the petitioner, had previously been subject to the more favorable formula. The Court held that the new statute violated the Ex Post Facto Clause with respect to the petitioner because, like the statute in
Lynce
but unlike the one here, it was more onerous than the statute that applied at the time of the offense.
. Even executive action that does shock the conscience will still not infringe substantive due process unless it also deprives an individual of a "protected interest in life, liberty, or property.”
See Aguilar v. U.S. Immigration & Customs Enf.,
Here, because we determine that the challenged executive action is not conscience-shocking, it is unnecessary for us to determine whether ESP participants possess a liberty interest so fundamental as to be protected by substantive due process.
. The appellees do not argue that the Commonwealth acted with malice or with the purpose to oppress, nor did the district court make such a finding. Since the Commonwealth's decision to reincarcerate the appellees was the product of sustained reflection rather than urgency, we address the appellees' argument assuming, but without deciding, that they could prevail through a showing of deliberate indifference alone.
. We do not mean to propose a per se rule that the state's interest in enforcing its laws is always dispositive. Were such a rule in force, an individual’s lawfully obtained interest in X at one point could easily be eviscerated any time the government changes its position about the lawfulness of X at some later point.
Cf. Heckler v. Cmty. Health Servs.,
. The appellees correctly point out that the petitioner in Hawkins secured his liberty through a more run-of-the-mill administrative error, rather than through a deliberate legal interpretation that had been affirmed in the judiciary. But this distinction would not diminish the precedential risk of allowing the appellees to reap what has now become a facially unlawful benefit of an abrogated understanding of the Constitution.
. Indeed, had the Commonwealth continued to press the three-years provision as a basis for reimprisonment, it would have had at least a colorable argument. The petitioners claimed that Puerto Rico's official policy was to apply the 1994 regulation to them wholesale, without reference to subsequent regulations. Yet the record could also support the inference that this policy was never meant to prevent all further regulatory developments, but only those developments that would divest murder convicts of their eligibility for the program. If this reading is right, then the AOC was correct in its attempt to apply the 1999 regulation’s three-years provision. Right or wrong, however, the AOC's initial reliance on the 1999 regulation was far from frivolous.
. As with the ex post facto claim, our de novo analysis of the questions governed by § 1983 ineluctably resolves the questions governed by AEDPA. We acknowledge, however, that the Puerto Rico Supreme Court rejected the González-Fuentes petitioners' habeas claim for a somewhat different reason than we do here. Unlike us, that court concluded that the petitioners held no protectable liberty interest, and that retracting an erroneously granted benefit would not shock the conscience. This discrepancy in reasoning notwithstanding, our agreement as to the ultimate disposition nevertheless means that the Puerto Rico Supreme Court's decision was not an unreasonable application of clearly established Federal law.
See Clements v. Clarke,
Moreover, the U.S. Supreme Court "has held on numerous occasions that it is not an unreasonable application of clearly established Federal law for a state court to decline to apply a specific legal rule that has not been squarely established by this Court."
Knowles v.
Mirzayance,-U.S.-,
. The facts of
Holcomb
demonstrate that the court did not intend the term "conditional release” to be limited to transitional programs designed to prepare inmates for full release.
Holcomb
involved an extended furlough program that, as defined in a state directive, is "an approved absence [for 15 or more consecutive days and nights] from a correctional facility under precise conditions and is an extension of the limit of confinement of an offender.”
. The Seventh Circuit recently speculated in dicta that home detention might be constitutionally distinguishable from parole so long as a participant is serving out the balance of a sentence. In
Domka v. Portage County,
. One of these parties, according to the record, is also a party to the habeas petition here.
. Not surprisingly, this is exactly how the AOC behaved. Its administrator circulated an internal memorandum in 1996 indicating that retroactive application would risk contempt of court. That same year, the Commonwealth conceded before a state appeals court that Law 49 applied prospectively and therefore may only be applied to persons who committed offenses on or after its effective date.
. The one federal case that the Commonwealth cites in its appellate brief,
Kauffman v. Puerto Rico Telephone Co.,
The appellees, for their part, offer no case law whatsoever.
. Chicot dealt with a court's retroactive application of a new rule to transactions predating that rule's adoption, an issue that has spawned a great deal of subsequent doctrinal evolution and academic commentary. See Kermit Roosevelt III, A Little Theory Is a Dangerous Thing: The Myth of Adjudicative Retroactivity, 31 Conn. L.Rev. 1075 (1999). The issue we address here is far more limited and far less familiar — not whether a new rule is to be applied to prior transactions, but whether a liberty interest that accrues under the old rule is to be honored under the new *892 one. On this narrower question, we believe Chicot’s reasoning to be pertinent.
. We note that because this situation presents legal, rather than factual, questions, the pre-deprivation process limned in
Morrissey,
*893
. In the González-Fuentes petitioners' habeas challenge, the parties dispute whether the procedural due process claim was fairly presented to the Puerto Rico Supreme Court and, if so, whether that court adjudicated the matter on the merits, triggering the heightened deference owed under AEDPA. We need not decide these threshold questions, however, because we ultimately conclude that any procedural due process violations that occurred would still not warrant habeas relief.
. It is true that, theoretically, any of the appellees might still be able to contest the accuracy of his identification, the nature of the offense of conviction, and the length of his *894 sentence. But the notion that any of them might have had such a basic defense all along seems fanciful when none has made the argument over the course of five years of litigation.
. One loose end deserves to be flagged. The record reveals that at least one of the plaintiffs in this action, Mendelson Ortiz-Nicolau, was a party to one of the prior suits in the Puerto Rico courts. As a result of that suit, he obtained a permanent injunction that would prevent the AOC from ever reincarcerating him based on his murder conviction. See Ortiz-Nicolau v. Corr. Admin., No. KPE99-2586 (P.R. la Inst. Nov. 8, 1999). If Puerto Rico should now attempt to reincarcerate him along with the other plaintiffs, special consideration as to the res judicata effect of that injunction could be warranted.
. Of course, Puerto Rico may still volunteer to provide the appellees with the hearing that they should have received from the start. But doing so now, after the initial violations and purely as a result of this litigation, would not shield it from any monetary liability that might otherwise apply.
