Electricity Consumers Resource Council v. Federal Energy Regulatory CommissionElectricity Consumers Resource Council v. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission
Thе Electricity Consumers Resource Council (“ELCON”) challenges two orders of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission approving a rate design for the installed capacity market administered by the New York Independent System Operator, Inc. (“NYISO”). See N.Y. Indep. Sys. Operator, Inc.,
I.
To prevent electricity shortages during periods of peak demand, the New York State Reliability Council required retail utilities, known as load serving entities (“LSEs”), to purchase installed caрacity (“ICAP”) equal to 118% of their peak loads. See Initial Order, 103 F.E.R.C. ¶ 61,201, at 61,750. If an LSE failed to procure the required amount of ICAP through its own supply or through bilateral contracts, it was required to purchase the deficient quantity through NYISO auctions, at which the price equaled a “deficiency charge” of $255 per kilowatt-year, or three times the annualized cost of installing a new “peaker” power plant. See id. This rate design resulted in a vertical demand curve for ICAP, with the price equal to $255 for all quantities up to 118%, and $0 for all quantities exceeding 118%. See id. & fig.l. According to NYISO, the vertical demand curve caused extreme volatility in ICAP prices, thus discouraging investment in new generation facilities and creating “the potential for a capacity deficiency” in New York State. Id. at 61,751.
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Figure 2: Sloped ICAP Demand Curve
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Each month, capacity suppliers, including LSEs with excess capacity, would bid into an ICAP auction and create the supply curve; the point of intersection between the supply curve and the ICAP Demand Curve would determine the quantity and price of required ICAP. See id at 61,752. If the monthly auction yielded a quantity less than 118% of peak load, NYI-SO would purchase the deficient amount outside the auction market and charge each LSE a “supplemental supply fee” equal to 1.5 times the annualized cost of a new peaker plant. See id at 61,753. NY-ISO аlso proposed a “periodic independent review of the Demand Curve every three years to determine whether adjustments are warranted.” Id
ELCON, which represents industrial consumers of electricity, intervened and protested the new rate design, arguing that it would increase electricity prices for consumers without spurring investment in new generation capacity, and that it violated incentive ratemaking case law because the ICAP Demand Curve was not carefully calibrated tо increase investment in new generation facilities without granting a windfall to existing capacity suppliers. The Commission approved NYISO’s rate design with modifications, finding that it would “benefit customers because it [would] provide better price signals to investors for construction of new generation, encourage the formation of long-term bilateral transactions, and reduce incentives to withhold capacity.” Id at 61,750. The
II.
The court ordinarily reviews the Commission’s orders to determine whether they are “arbitrary, capricious, an abuse of discretion, or otherwise not in accordance with law.” 5 U.S.C. § 706(2)(A); see Pub. Utils. Comm’n v. FERC,
ELCON contends that the challenged orders are subject to a heightened standard of review because the ICAP Demand Curve is neither market-based nor cost-based but rather administratively constructed to encourage investment in new generation capacity. According to EL-CON, the Commission must demonstrate that such “incentive ratemaking” is “in fact needed, and is no more than is needed, for the purpose.” City of Detroit v. Fed. Power Comm’n,
In the Initial Order, the Commission explained that the incentive ratemaking cases and the 1992 Policy Statement were inapplicable to the ICAP Demand Curve because they “involved incremental rate increases levied upon all customers,” whereas “ICAP charges are not automatically applied to every sale of power, and they can be avoided by self-supplying or procuring adequate capacity through bilateral contracts.” Initial Order, 103 F.E.R.C. ¶ 61,201, at 61,755. On rehearing, the Commission further explаined that although the incentive ratemaking cases “involved proposals to encourage new supplies, as does New York’s ICAP Demand Curve, they were implemented as different types of rates than the instant one and with a different potential impact on ratepayers.” Rehearing Order, 105 F.E.R.C. ¶ 61,108, at 61,620. While the Commission does not explore this difference in detail, the court can “discern a reasoned path” to the Commission’s conclusion, E. Tex. Elec. Coop., Inc. v. FERC,
Unlike incentive ratemaking, the ICAP Demand Curve does not impose an incremental rate increase above traditional cost-based rates. “For the rationale of the incentive rate cases to apply here,” the intervening capacity suppliers explain, EL-CON “would need to identify a ‘rate increase’ over and above the rates permitted under the Vertical Demand Curve — rates that [ELCON] eoncede[s], at least implicitly — fall within the ‘zone оf reasonableness’ under the just and reasonable standard.” Br. of Supplier Intervenors at 8. Under the vertical demand curve, ICAP prices ranged from zero to the deficiency charge, or three times the annualized cost of a new peaker plant. See Initial Order, 103 F.E.R.C. ¶ 61,201, at 61,750. Under the sloped demand curve, ICAP prices range from zero to two times the annualized cost of a new peaker plant. See id. at 61,751. At quantities above 118% of peak load, ICAP prices are higher under the sloped demand curve thаn under the vertical demand curve, but at quantities equal to or below 118%, ICAP prices are lower under the sloped demand curve than under the vertical demand curve. Compare id. at 61,750 fig. 1 with id. at 61,751 fig. 2. Thus, the intervening capacity suppliers point out, the sloped demand curve does not impose an incremental rate increase.
More important, unlike incentive rate-making, the ICAP Demand Curve encourages investment in new generation capacity by ensuring “increased stability in ICAP revenues,” not higher rates across the board. Id. at 61,758. Instead of granting “above-cost premiums to suppliers of capacity,” Br. of Resp’t at 26, the ICAP Demand Curve restructures ICAP prices to “more realistically reflect! ] the economic value of capacity reserves” and to “send better price signals to encourage
Insisting that the ICAP Demand Curve imposes excessive incentive rates, ELCON relies on two decisions of the First Circuit: Central Maine Power Co. v. FERC,
The Commission maintains that the court owes “special deference” to its development of the “experimental” ICAP Demand Curve because regardless of the evidence in the record, “there is no substitute for reviewing the actual results of a regulatory action.” Interstate Natural Gas Ass’n v. FERC,
III.
ELCON raises a number of challenges to the Commission’s approval of the new rate dеsign. While ELCON maintains that the Commission failed to consider certain objections, the record demonstrates otherwise, indicating that ELCON’s challenges are to the Commission’s predictive judgments and policy choices, to which the court owes deference.
First, ELCON contends that the Commission failed to consider objections that
the ICAP charges under the Demand Curve were too high and that the slope of the Demand Curve was too gradual. EL-CON points to the testimony of expert witness David W. Segal indicating thаt the Commission overestimated the annualized cost of installing a new peaker plant, underestimated the useful life of a new peak-er plant, ignored the revenue earned from the energy and ancillary service markets, and overestimated the value of reliability to consumers. In fact, the Commission considered the objections raised by EL-CON and determined based on the evidence offered by NYISO and its expert witness Dr. David B. Patton that the parameters of the ICAP Demand Curve were “appropriate and reasonable.” Rehearing Order, 105 F.E.R.C. ¶ 61,108, at 61,623. After reciting the objections to Dr. Patton’s estimates, see id., the Commission explained that it considered the parameters to be reasonable, emphasizing the fact that the ICAP Demand Curve was initially proposed by the New York Public Service Commission (“NYPSC”) and reflected a year of negotiations and discussions among NYPSC, NYISO, and ICAP market participants. See id. at 61,618, 61,623; Initial Order, 103 F.E.R.C. ¶ 61,201, at 61,754. While the Commission expressed some uncertainty about the accuracy of the exact pоints and slope of the Demand Curve, it observed that confirming specific parameters would require “some measure of experience,” and required NYISO to monitor the results of the Demand Curve, expecting NYISO to review the Demand Curve with stakeholder input and to adjust the parameters as appropriate, subject to Commission approval. Rehearing Order, 105 F.E.R.C. ¶ 61,108, at 61,623. Moreover, as the Commission points out in its brief, Segal’s estimates were not offered as an alternative calculation of a reasonable ICAP charge but rather as evidence that such a calculation was difficult to determine
Second, ELCON contends that the Commission failed to consider the increased costs that the ICAP Demand Curve will impose on electricity consumers. It cites Dr. Patton’s estimate that the ICAP Demand Curve will increаse costs by $70 million in New York City and $84 million in the rest of the State during the first year, Dr. Carl Pechman’s estimate that the Demand Curve will increase costs by $700 million over a three-year period, and Strategic Energy’s estimate that the Demand Curve will increase costs by $1 billion per year. The Commission considered and rejected these estimates. See Initial Order, 103 F.E.R.C. ¶ 61,201, at 61,757-758. Noting that one intervenor concluded that Dr. Pechman’s estimate was “grossly overstated,” and that several intervenors argued that the long-term benefits of the ICAP Demand Curve would outweigh any short-term costs, id. at 61,-757, the Commission concluded that by reducing volatility in ICAP revenues and spurring new generation capacity, the ICAP Demand Curve would “provide long term benefits to NYISO markets and customers,” id. at 61,758. Indeed, the Commission emphasizes in its brief Dr. Patton’s conclusion that any costs of the ICAP Demand Curve are “transitional and will be eliminated over time as the market moves toward a long-run equilibrium.” Patton Aff. ¶ 61, at 17; Br. of Resp’t at 37. While the Commission recognized that it could not predict the exact amоunt of savings achieved by the ICAP Demand Curve, see Initial Order, 103 F.E.R.C. ¶ 61,201, at 61,758, it did cite Dr. Patton’s estimates that a 1% increase in capacity would yield savings of $1 million per year in the long term, and that even in the short term, the ICAP Demand Curve could save New York City between $57 million and $212 million. See id. at 61,757 n. 23, 61,758 n. 24; Patton Aff. ¶¶ 22, 31 at 5, 8. The Commission also noted that compared to the vertical demand curve, under which the deficiency charge is equal to three times the annualized cost of a new peaker plant, the new rate design would provide savings. See Initial Order, 103 F.E.R.C. ¶ 61,201, at 61,758. Because the Commission’s predictive judgment that the ICAP Demand Curve will result in long-term savings is supported by substantial evidence in the record, and because the balancing of short-term costs against long-term benefits is within the Commission’s discretion, the court defers to the Commission’s policy choice.
Third, ELCON contends that the Commission failed to consider evidence in the record that the ICAP Demand Curve will not encourage investment in new generation capacity. ELCON cites comments by Energy East, New York City, Strategic Energy, and the Morgan Stanley Group suggesting that reluctance to build new generation facilities in New York State arises from concerns other than the structure of the ICAP market, and that the ICAP Demand Curve offers an “indiscriminate subsidy” to all capacity suppliers without requiring them to use their increased revenues to build new generation facilities in New York. The Commission considered and rejected these comments. See Initial Order, 103 F.E.R.C. ¶ 61,201, at 61,763-64. The Commission explained that while it did not expect the ICAP Demand Curve to “alone result in more financing,” it did expect that “more reliable and predictable ICAP revenues would contribute to a more reliable overall revenue structure for an ICAP supplier and thus play some role in improving that supplier’s prospects for financing.” Id. That
Fourth, ELCON contends that the Commission failed to consider its objection that the ICAP Demand Curve replaces price volatility -with quantity volatility, thus discouraging bilateral contracts and destroying the stability needed to encourage invеstment in new generation capacity. According to ELCON, quantity volatility is more damaging than price volatility because LSEs “have no way to hedge against the uncertainty associated with the monthly required quantity.” Br. of Pet’r at 37. The Commission considered and rejected this objection. See Initial Order, 103 F.E.R.C. ¶ 61,201, at 61,759-760. In response to the contention that quantity volatility could not be hedged, the Commission quoted Dr. Patton’s testimony that “LSEs will have the opportunity to purchase any quantity of capacity they desire in the forward markеt and the spot market provides a means to sell back any excess capacity purchased forward.” Id. at 61,-760 (quoting Supplemental Patton Aff. ¶ 17, at 5) (internal quotation marks omitted). The Commission further explained on rehearing that LSEs could “hedge most of their [ICAP] obligations by purchasing an estimate of their ICAP obligation through bilateral contracts” and “sell[ing] the excess back into the spot market.” Rehearing Order, 105 F.E.R.C. ¶ 61,108, at 61,622. The Commission also concluded that the quantity volatility under the sloped ICAP Demand Curve, which was limited to a range of 118% to 132% of peak load, was less extreme and thus less damaging than the price volatility under the vertical demand curve, which ranged from $0 to more than $200 per kilowatt-year. See Initial Order, 103 F.E.R.C. ¶ 61,201, at 61,
Fifth, ELCON contends that the Commission failed to consider alternatives to the ICAP Demand Curve proposed by Strategic Energy, Con Edison, Energy East, and New York City. The Commission considered the two alternatives proposed directly to it and not to NYISO— bilateral contracts and demand response— and determined that they were compatible with the ICAP Demand Curve. See Initial Order, 103 F.E.R.C. ¶ 61,201, at 61,-763; Rehearing Order, 105 F.E.R.C. ¶ 61,-108, at 61,621. Because the Commission provided a reasonable explanation for choosing the ICAP Demand Curve despite the proposed alternatives, the court defers to the Commission’s policy choice.
ELCON’s final objection, that the Commission “ignored substantial evidence that supply conditions in New York are not critical and thus do not justify the level of the Demand Curve ICAP charges,” Br. of Pet’r at 23, is not properly before the court. ELCON did not raise this objection in its petition for rehearing by the Commission, and thus it is waived. See 16 U.S.C. § 825((b). In any event, NYISO presented evidence of a capacity shortage in New York, and the Commission pointed out that the ICAP Demand Curve would prevent future shortages. See Initial Order, 103 F.E.R.C. ¶ 61,201, at 61,756.
Accordingly, because ELCON fails to show that the Commission’s approval of the new rate design was arbitrary and capricious, we deny the petition for review.