The IFRs permitted employers with religious or moral objections to contraception to obtain exemptions from providing health insurance coverage to employees and their dependents for Food and Drug Administration ("FDA")-approved contraceptive care. Such coverage would otherwise be required by guidelines issued pursuant to a provision in the Affordable Care Act, subject to the limitations imposed by the Supreme Court in
Burwell
v.
Hobby Lobby Stores, Inc.
,
These IFRs were superseded by final rules (the "Final Rules"), promulgated on November 15, 2018, with an effective date of January 14, 2019. Religious Exemptions and Accommodations for Coverage of Certain Preventive Services Under the Affordable Care Act,
After both sides here moved for summary judgment, the district court determined that Massachusetts lacked standing to challenge the IFRs.
Massachusetts
v.
U. S. Dep't of Health & Human Servs.
,
The issue on appeal is narrow: whether the Commonwealth has Article III standing to challenge the rules. We hold that it does. Specifically, we conclude that: (1) in agreement with the position of the United States, the Commonwealth's substantive challenges have not been mooted by the promulgation of the Final Rules, but the Commonwealth's procedural challenge to the IFRs has been mooted; and (2) the Commonwealth has established Article III standing to challenge the substance of the rules by demonstrating a sufficiently imminent fiscal injury under a traditional standing analysis (and so we do not reach the Commonwealth's alternative parens patriae standing argument).
I.
A. Factual Background
1. The Affordable Care Act and the Contraceptive Care Requirement
The Affordable Care Act requires employer-sponsored health plans to provide coverage for a range of preventive care and related medical services at no cost to the covered employee. See 42 U.S.C. § 300gg-13(a). 3 A provision commonly known as the Women's Health Amendment requires coverage for, "with respect to women, such additional preventive care and screenings ... as provided for in comprehensive guidelines supported by the Health Resources and Services Administration."
While the Women's Health Amendment did not indicate the additional preventive care services that must be covered, it instructed the Health Resources and Services Administration ("HRSA"), part of HHS, to determine the specifics of such required care and services. See 155 Cong. Rec. 511, 987 (daily ed. Nov. 30, 2009) (Senate Amendment 2791).
In August 2011, HRSA accepted the recommendations of the Institute of Medicine ("IOM") and issued guidelines requiring insurance coverage, at no cost to users, of all "Food and Drug Administration ... approved contraceptive methods, sterilization procedures, and patient education and counseling for all women with reproductive capacity." Group Health Plans and Health Insurance Issuers Relating to Coverage of Preventive Services Under the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act,
2. The Departments' Regulations and Related Litigation from 2010 to 2016
Concurrently, the Departments promulgated regulations, which became final in February 2012, that provided an exemption from the requirement to provide contraceptive coverage to "churches, their integrated auxiliaries, and conventions or associations of churches" with religious objections to contraception.
Later regulations also created what the Departments termed an "accommodation" process. Coverage of Certain Preventive Services Under the Affordable Care Act,
On June 30, 2014, the Supreme Court held in Hobby Lobby that the contraceptive regulatory requirement as applied to closely held corporations violated the Religious Freedom Restoration Act ("RFRA"), 42 U.S.C. § 2000bb-1 et seq.
After
Hobby Lobby
, the Departments issued a new rule in 2015 which allowed "Closely Held for-Profit Entit[ies]" who had religious objections to providing contraceptive coverage to use the Accommodation process described above. Coverage of Certain Preventive Services Under the Affordable Care Act,
Nevertheless, numerous religious nonprofit organizations sued to obtain an exemption similar to that provided to churches rather than the more limited Accommodation process (which still allowed for contraceptive coverage for employees of the objecting organizations). Nine circuits considered the issue from late 2014 to early 2016. Eight circuits held that the Accommodation did not substantially burden religious exercise; one held that it did.
6
The Supreme Court granted certiorari in some of these cases (from the Third, Fifth, Tenth, and D.C. Circuits). In a per curiam opinion, it vacated and remanded, instructing that the parties "be afforded an opportunity to arrive at an approach going forward that accommodates petitioners' religious exercise while at the same time ensuring that women covered by petitioners' health plans receive full and equal health coverage, including contraceptive coverage."
Zubik
v.
Burwell
, --- U.S. ----,
After
Zubik
, the Departments sought comment in July 2016 through a request for information, seeking alternative ways in which the contraceptive coverage mandate and employers' religious beliefs could coexist. Coverage for Contraceptive Services,
3. President's Executive Order and Interim Final Rules on Exemptions
On May 4, 2017, the President issued an Executive Order " Promoting Free Speech and Religious Liberty." Exec. Order No. 13,798,
Several months later, the Departments issued two IFRs: a religious exemption IFR and a separate moral exemption IFR, both effective immediately on publication, on October 6, 2017.
See
The religious exemption IFR expanded the previous exemption (which had covered only churches and related entities,
see
The moral exemption IFR created a similar exemption but based on "sincerely held moral convictions" as opposed to "sincerely held religious beliefs."
The Departments included a regulatory impact analysis in the IFRs (the "Regulatory Impact Analysis"),
see
The Departments based their lower bound estimate of 31,700 women partially on the number of employers that had previously challenged the contraceptive coverage requirement in litigation, and partially on an estimate of the number of employers using the Accommodation.
See
To calculate an "upper bound" of 120,000 women likely to lose contraceptive coverage because of the IFRs, the Departments started from the number of women that used FDA-approved contraceptives but were employed by entities that did not cover such care before the Affordable Care Act was enacted, relying on a survey from the Kaiser Family Foundation. Id. at 47,822. This estimate did not consider employees of the "31 percent of survey respondents that did not know about contraceptive coverage." Id. at n.88. After reducing the extrapolated numbers to account for already exempt church plans and the assumption that publicly-traded employers would not make use of the expanded exceptions, the Departments reached an amount of 362,100 women. From there, the Departments calculated their final "upper bound" estimate of 120,000 women based on the view that a "reasonable estimate is that no more than approximately one third of the persons covered by relevant entities ... would likely be subject to potential transfer impacts." Id. at 47,823. The Departments based this "one third" estimate on several factors, including employers potentially objecting to only certain contraceptive methods and a "prominent poll" purporting to "show[ ] that 89 percent of Americans say they believe in God, while 11 percent say they do not or are agnostic." Id.
The Departments then estimated an "average annual expenditure on contraceptive products and services of $ 584 per user," so a "transfer effect[ ]" attributable to the IFRs of between about $ 18.5 and $ 63.8 million annually nationwide. Id. at 47,823 -24. In a footnote, the Departments also noted the "noteworthy potential impact[ ]" of "increased expenditures on pregnancy-related medical services," but did not provide a numerical estimate of such expenditures (or of how many women might face unintended pregnancies due to the IFRs). Id. at 47,828 n.113.
In their Regulatory Impact Report, the Departments also included spreadsheets listing either litigating employers or employers currently using the Accommodation that the Departments flagged could switch to the expanded exemption. Three Massachusetts employers were listed.
4. Relevant Commonwealth Laws and Public Health Structure
The Commonwealth legislature has enacted two laws that are relevant to this case and factor into the Commonwealth's claims of injury. In 2002, the legislature passed "An Act Providing Equitable Coverage of Services Under Health Plans,"
see
2002 Mass. Acts ch. 49, §§ 1-4, which
Importantly, Massachusetts healthcare laws -- including the ACCESS Act and the earlier Equitable Coverage law -- do not apply to self-insured plans, because such plans come under the Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974 ("ERISA") (which preempts state regulation).
The Commonwealth also provides health services to about two million Commonwealth residents through its Medicaid program, the MassHealth Program.
Massachusetts
,
In addition to the MassHealth program, the Sexual and Reproductive Health Program ("SRHP") of the Commonwealth's Department of Public Health reimburses groups and clinics that are providing contraceptive care and services in the Commonwealth. Services funded by the SRHP are available to Massachusetts residents that either (1) do not have insurance and make less than 300% of the poverty level; (2) need confidential care; or (3) make less than 300% of the poverty level and have insurance that does not cover all contraception methods and services.
See
B. Procedural History of This Litigation
The Commonwealth filed suit to enjoin the IFRs in October 2017. The Commonwealth
Both sides moved for summary judgment. In its memorandum in opposition to defendants' cross-motion to dismiss or for summary judgment, the Commonwealth asserted standing based on a procedural injury, financial harm, and harm to the Commonwealth's quasi-sovereign interests. The Departments asserted that the Commonwealth's projections of injury were too speculative to support standing.
This case is in an unusual posture for the following reasons. When filed, it was brought as a pre-enforcement suit. Before the district court ruled on the cross motions for summary judgment, two federal district courts issued nationwide injunctions blocking the IFRs, after finding that the plaintiff states had standing.
See
California
v.
Health & Human Servs.
("
California I"
),
On March 12, 2018, the district court granted the Departments' motion for summary judgment.
Massachusetts
,
The Commonwealth appealed. After the Commonwealth filed its opening brief, the Departments issued Final Rules superseding the IFRs in November 2018, effective in January 2019.
During the briefing of this case, California and another group of states, which did not include the Commonwealth, obtained an injunction against the Final Rules for the plaintiff states in January 2019,
see
California
v.
Health & Human Servs.
("
California III
"),
II.
A. Mootness
We first consider whether the Commonwealth's challenges to the rules are moot because the Departments have promulgated superseding Final Rules. A case is moot where it is "impossible for a court to grant any effectual relief whatever to the prevailing party."
Chafin
v.
Chafin
,
1. Mootness of the Substantive Challenges
Both parties agree that the Commonwealth's substantive challenges to the rules have not been mooted by the promulgation of the Final Rules. We still must independently review the issue. The parties' view accords with our view, based on Supreme Court and First Circuit caselaw, that this aspect of the case is not moot.
The challenged portions of the Final Rules are sufficiently similar to the IFRs that the case is not moot as to the Commonwealth's substantive challenges.
See
Ne. Fla. Chapter of the Associated Gen. Contractors of Am.
v.
City of Jacksonville
,
2. Mootness of the Procedural Challenge to the IFRs
Nevertheless, we find that the Commonwealth's APA procedural challenge to the IFRs is moot. Although the IFRs did not go through notice and comment rulemaking, the Final Rules superseded the IFRs.
The Final Rules would have become effective as planned on January 14, 2019, if not enjoined before that date. Past that date, it would be "impossible for a court to grant any effectual relief whatever to the prevailing party" as to the IFRs.
Chafin
,
Levesque
, which the Commonwealth relies upon to argue that its procedural challenge to the IFRs has not been mooted, is distinguishable.
Levesque
v.
Block
,
B. Article III Standing for Substantive Challenges
We turn to whether the Commonwealth has established Article III standing for its substantive challenges to the federal regulations. "[N]o principle is more fundamental to the judiciary's proper role in our system of government than the constitutional limitation of federal-court jurisdiction to actual cases or controversies."
DaimlerChrysler Corp.
v.
Cuno
,
"The existence of standing is a legal question, which we review
de novo
."
Kerin
v.
Titeflex Corp.
,
The Commonwealth's primary argument for standing is based on a fiscal injury to itself. In this circuit, "[i]t is a bedrock proposition that 'a relatively small economic loss -- even an identifiable trifle -- is enough to confer standing.' "
Katz
v.
Pershing, LLC
,
We hold that the Commonwealth has demonstrated Article III standing for its substantive claim based on an imminent fiscal injury that is fairly traceable to the federal regulations and redressable by a favorable decision. We do not afford the Commonwealth "special solicitude in [the] standing analysis,"
Massachusetts
v.
EPA
,
1. Imminent Fiscal Injury to the Commonwealth
The heart of the Departments' standing challenge is that the Commonwealth has not demonstrated an imminent injury. That requires us to decide whether the Commonwealth has adequately demonstrated that a fiscal injury is
imminent
due to the challenged federal regulations. Of course, the Commonwealth need not wait for an actual injury to occur before filing suit.
See
Adams
,
The imminence requirement is met "if the threatened injury is 'certainly impending' or there is a 'substantial risk' that the harm will occur."
Susan B. Anthony List
v.
Driehaus
,
The Commonwealth's argument that it faces an imminent fiscal injury proceeds in steps: First, it argues that it established a substantial risk that the rules will cause women in the Commonwealth to lose their contraceptive coverage. Second, it argues that it established a substantial likelihood that some of these women will then obtain state-funded contraceptive services or prenatal and postnatal care for unintended pregnancies, and thus that the Commonwealth will incur costs as a result. As for those women who go forward with pregnancies because of the loss of contraceptive services or the loss of the most effective contraceptive devices, the Commonwealth states it "will incur costs providing pre- and post-natal care to some of the women who lose contraceptive coverage and consequently experience an unintended pregnancy."
The Departments counter that the Commonwealth (1) has failed to show that employers therein "will use the expanded exemption under the challenged rules to deprive employees of contraceptive coverage they previously had"; (2) has not identified any particular women who would be affected by employers' use of the exemptions; and, (3) "[e]ven assuming that some Massachusetts women will lose coverage of their chosen contraceptive method," the Commonwealth has "fail[ed] to demonstrate economic injury as a result."
In our view, the Commonwealth has demonstrated that there is a substantial risk of fiscal injury to itself. It has made "rational economic assumptions,"
Adams
,
a. The Commonwealth Has Shown There Are Employers Likely to Use the Exemptions
First, the Commonwealth established that there is a substantial risk that
some
women in Massachusetts will lose coverage due to the regulations. It pointed to the Departments' Regulatory Impact Analysis, which estimated that between 31,715 and 120,000 women would lose coverage. From there, Massachusetts set forth that based on its 2.1 percent of the national population "and [a]djusting these figures to exclude women in fully-insured plans covered by Massachusetts' contraceptive coverage laws, between 373 and 1,414 Massachusetts women in self-insured plans will lose coverage because of the IFRs." The district court rejected what it deemed Massachusetts' "proportional theory," relying in part on
Summers
v.
Earth Island Inst.
,
Moreover, the Commonwealth has demonstrated that it is highly likely that at least three employers in the Commonwealth with self-insured health plans (that is, exempt from state regulation due to ERISA) will use the expanded exemptions, based in part on their past litigating positions or their past objections to providing contraceptive coverage. The three are Autocam Medical Devices, LLC ("Autocam"), Hobby Lobby Stores, Inc. ("Hobby Lobby"), and Cummins-Allison Corporation ("Cummins-Allison"), all identified in the Departments' administrative record.
9
In a spreadsheet listing litigating entities likely to use the expanded exemptions, the Departments included both Autocam and Hobby Lobby, both employers in Massachusetts. Additionally, the Departments included Cummins-Allison in a list of employers using the Accommodation that had notified the Departments of their religious objections to providing contraceptive coverage.
10
See
The Commonwealth refers to data, which the Departments do not contest, stating that as of September 2018, Autocam employed over one hundred people in the Commonwealth, and Hobby Lobby operated four stores with employees in the Commonwealth. 11 See Brief for Nat'l Women's Law Ctr. et al., as Amici Curiae in Support of Plaintiff-Appellant and in Favor of Reversal, at 7 nn.14, 15 (2019).
The Departments' record further supports standing in two respects. First, the Departments acknowledge that for purposes of the Regulatory Impact Analysis, they assumed that the litigating entities, excluding previously exempt ones, would use the expanded exemption under the interim rules.
We turn to the argument that because the Commonwealth "cannot point to a single woman who will lose coverage she would otherwise want," the Commonwealth lacks standing. First, a plaintiff need not "demonstrate that it is literally certain that the harms they identify will come about."
Clapper
,
b. The Commonwealth Has Shown Its Costs Will Most Likely Rise with Increased Numbers of Women Using State-Funded Contraceptive Care
The Commonwealth's evidence has also established a substantial risk that a portion of the women who would lose contraceptive coverage would then obtain state-funded contraceptive care or state-funded prenatal care for unintended pregnancies, and thus cause the Commonwealth to incur costs. The evidence establishes the following: (1) the Commonwealth provides at least partially state-funded contraceptive services through MassHealth, which has about two million enrolled members, through the Massachusetts Department of Public Health, and through the University of Massachusetts Boston; (2) women with
Applying the state's calculation that at least twenty-five percent of women who currently have employer-sponsored coverage will be eligible for state-funded care, and adjusting the upper and lower bound estimates of the Departments' Regulatory Impact Analysis to the Commonwealth's percentage of the national population, the Commonwealth set forth that 99 to 354 women that will likely lose coverage as a result of the regulations will qualify for state funded programs. Considering that, based on the Departments' Regulatory Impact Analysis, the annual cost of contraceptive coverage averages around $ 584 a year per woman,
None of these statements have been seriously contested by the Departments (and besides, at the summary judgment stage, the "specific facts" " 'set forth' [by a plaintiff] by affidavit or other evidence ... will be taken as true,"
Lujan
,
The Departments' own estimate is based on average costs across the nation rather than what might be higher costs in the Commonwealth. Even so, the average cost to the Commonwealth of a single woman relying
fully
on state-funded contraceptive care for one year would be $ 584 (if no portion was covered by other sources), based on the national estimate.
And a birth resulting from the denial of contraceptive access will likely have significant costs to the Commonwealth as well. A 2010 analysis found that the average cost to the Commonwealth of an unplanned birth was $ 15,109 in maternity care and other healthcare in the first year of the child's life alone. See Adam Sonfield &
The Departments theorize about a hypothetical woman who loses coverage but is "able to pay out of pocket for contraceptive services" or "ha[s] access to such coverage through a spouse's (or parent's) plan." Such a hypothetical woman may exist, but the number of women with incomes that make them eligible for state-assisted contraceptive coverage but who still fit in that category would, logically, be very small. The argument is largely irrelevant to the Commonwealth's claims of injury.
c. The Commonwealth Has Shown a Likely Chain of Events for Standing
The Commonwealth's "cause and effect [chain is] predicated on ...
probable
market behavior."
Adams
,
2. The Alleged Injury is Concrete and Particularized
The next question is whether the imminent injury alleged is concrete and particularized.
See
Spokeo, Inc.
v.
Robins
, --- U.S. ----,
Concreteness requires something "real, and not abstract."
3. The Commonwealth Has Shown Causation and Redressability
Causation and redressability are the final two requirements for Article III standing.
Lujan
,
III.
In sum, the Commonwealth's substantive challenges to the Departments' federal regulations are not moot. Its procedural challenge to the IFRs, however, has been mooted by the promulgation of the Final Rules, but this does not preclude the Commonwealth from asserting any procedural challenges to the Final Rules. Finally, the Commonwealth has Article III standing to challenge the Departments' actions. We vacate and remand for proceedings consistent with this opinion.
VACATED AND REMANDED .
Notes
I am particularly appreciative of my panel colleagues' contributions to this opinion.
We appreciate the numerous amici who submitted briefs to this court.
Employers who provide health plans that existed before March 23, 2010, and who have not made specified changes after that date to their health plans, are not subject to this requirement.
The IFRs and the statutory provision at issue -- the Women's Health Amendment -- discuss only women. The Commonwealth's complaint similarly focuses on women. The denial of coverage for contraceptive care and services may directly affect some transgender men and gender non-conforming people, as well as indirectly affect some men (for example, men who have dependents, whether children or partners, who rely on the man's employer-sponsored health insurance coverage for contraceptive care and services).
The Departments estimated in 2017 that about "46.6 million women aged 15 to 64 received the [contraceptive and related] coverage through employer sponsored private insurance plans,"
Specifically, the Second, Third, Fifth, Sixth, Seventh, Tenth, Eleventh, and D.C. Circuits held that the Accommodation did not substantially burden religious exercise.
Eternal Word Television Network, Inc.
v.
Sec'y of U.S. Dep't of Health & Human Servs.
,
The Commonwealth and several amici challenge these estimates as too low, arguing, for example, that they rely on data about women using a contraceptive method at a point-in-time rather than over time, and that the estimates do not adequately consider the impact of the untested moral exemption.
Unlike in
Clapper
, the issue here is not whether a plaintiff would ever be subject to the challenged government policy (there, surveillance under the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act).
See
Before the district court, the Commonwealth also listed Little Sisters of the Poor as a litigating entity operating in the Commonwealth.
Massachusetts
,
Cummins Allison had used the Accommodation process under the prior rules, but had not litigated against the Accommodation process.
In Column H of the spreadsheets of "litigating entities" used for the Departments' Regulatory Impact Analysis, the Departments list the "number of [employees] counted towards final total." Both Autocam and Hobby Lobby have a positive number listed in Column H -- 183 for Autocam, 13,250 for Hobby Lobby -- and both have employees in the Commonwealth.
The estimate of 209 employers using the accommodation process was made by HHS in 2014.
See
In
Massachusetts
v.
EPA
, the Commonwealth's declarations did not identify particular coastal land that had been lost or would necessarily be lost based on rising sea levels, but the Supreme Court found standing, stating that "the likelihood that Massachusetts' coastline will recede has nothing to do with whether [Massachusetts] ha[s] determined the precise metes and bounds of [its] soon-to-be-flooded land."
Here, as the Commonwealth discusses in its reply brief, it is not clear how it could reasonably be expected to point to particular women affected by the IFRs, even if the IFRs or Final Rules were in effect and employers in the Commonwealth had used the exemptions. Like the IFRs, the Final Rules do not require employers to notify the Commonwealth that they are using the exemptions,
see
