Respondent-appellant Wayne Estelle, Warden (“Estelle”), appeals the judgment granting a writ of habeas corpus to petitioner-appellee Charles Denton Watson (“Watson”). The district court had jurisdiction pursuant to 28 U.S.C. § 2254. We have jurisdiction pursuant to 28 U.S.C. §§ 1291 & 2253, and we affirm.
*106 I
In 1971, Watson was convicted of seven counts of murder and one count of conspiracy to commit murder for his participation in the Tate-LaBianca murders as part of the Manson family. His death sentence was modified to life imprisonment when the California Supreme Court invalidated the death penalty.
In 1977, California’s Determinate Sentencing Law (“DSL”) became effective. As enacted, the DSL contained a provision obligating the Board of Prison Terms (“Board”) to conduct annual parole hearings for all indeterminately sentenced prisoners, such as Watson.
1
This provision was retroactive, putting Watson in the same position he would have occupied “if annual review were in effect at the time [he] committed his offense.”
In re Jackson,
In 1983, the Board delayed Watson’s parole hearings for the maximum three year period authorized by subsection 3041.-5(b)(2). In response, Watson sought a writ of habeas corpus in state court. The state trial court granted the writ on ex post facto grounds and was affirmed by the California Court of Appeal. The California Supreme Court then decided Jackson, which rejected an ex post facto clause challenge to subsection 3041.5(b)(2). Upon reconsideration in light of Jackson, the California Court of Appeal reversed the trial court’s decision to grant the writ. The state supreme court declined review.
Having exhausted his state remedies, Watson filed the present habeas petition in the district court. The district court adopted the magistrate’s recommendations and entered judgment granting the petition and issuing the writ. The writ does not order Watson’s release, but instead orders the Board to hold annual parole hearings. From this judgment, Estelle appeals.
II
We review a district court’s decision to grant or deny a petition for a writ of habeas corpus de novo, but review the magistrate’s findings of fact and their adoption by the district court for clear error.
Carter v. McCarthy,
This appeal is governed by
Weaver v. Graham,
This prong is satisfied if the reduction in the frequency of parole hearings “makes more burdensome the punishment for [the] crime.”
Beazell v. Ohio,
The ease law, however, fails to provide specific guidelines governing the inquiry into whether the new law “worsens conditions imposed by its predecessor,”
Weaver,
*108 Weaver, which involved “gain time credits,” is the most analogous of the recent Supreme Court cases. There, existing law had provided for reductions of the sentences of prisoners for good conduct. The amount of the reduction, or “gain time credit,” was determined according to a statutory formula. Although the statute provided for additional discretionary gain time, prisoners whose conduct conformed to the statutory requirements earned a specific amount of gain time spelled out by the formula. Weaver arose when the state replaced the formula with a less generous method of calculating gain time and attempted to apply it retroactively to prisoners who had earned gain time under the old formula.
Without dissent, the Supreme Court prohibited the application of the new method to prisoners who had earned gain time pursuant to the old formula. The six-Justice opinion of the Court evinces a broad approach that seeks to assess the prisoner’s expectations realistically rather than to apply technical doctrinal requirements.
See
Rodriguez v. United States Parole Commission,
Estelle seeks to distinguish Rodriguez, arguing that the Seventh Circuit upheld the ex post facto challenge “not simply because [the new regulation] changed the frequency of parole hearings, but because in the case of prisoners with short sentences like Rodriguez the regulation denied them all opportunity for release on parole prior to the expiration of their maximum sentence.”
We do not find Estelle’s attempt to distinguish
Rodriguez
persuasive. The Seventh Circuit did declare unconstitutional the “[d]enial of any meaningful opportunity for parole by retroactive application of the Parole Commission’s rule.”
Guided by the case law, we now consider whether subsection 3041.5(b)(2) effects a detriment or material disadvantage against any expectations of Watson protected by the ex post facto clause. The California Supreme Court has noted that subsection 3041.5(b)(2) “changed only the frequency with which the Board must give an inmate the opportunity to demonstrate parole suitability.”
Jackson,
Additionally, subsection 3041.5(b)(2) permits the Board to frustrate a prisoner’s interest in obtaining a parole release date for three times as long as was permitted by prior law. Pre-subsection 3041.5(b)(2) law provided that a prisoner had a right to parole that could only be denied by the Board if supported by certain findings made after a suitability hearing.
See
Cal. Penal Code § 3041(b) (the Board “shall set a release date unless” it makes certain determinations);
see also Board of Pardons v. Allen,
Finally, subsection 3041.5(b)(2) allows the Board to deny release on a standard different from the existing suitability standard. In the words of the California Supreme Court:
*110 A finding that an inmate is unsuitable for parole requires the Board to find that “consideration of the public safety requires a more lengthy period of incarceration .... ” The postponement provision, on the other hand, requires a finding that “it is not reasonable to expect that parole would be granted at a hearing during the following year_” The first determination attempts to predict the risk to the public safety, while the second attempts to predict that the risk is likely to continue for at least as long as the period of the postponement. Although they are related, they are not identical.
Jackson,
Ill
We add that by our decision today we do not mean to imply that we believe Watson should be released on parole. We do not. That issue is not before us, but is for the Board to decide. Instead, we only affirm the district court judgment ordering the Board to review Watson’s eligibility for parole on an annual basis. Like the Seventh Circuit in Rodriguez, we believe that the ex post facto clause of the Constitution compels our decision. The State of California gave its prisoners an expectation of annual parole review pursuant to a specified standard. The state may not now retrospectively take that expectation away. For three separate reasons, each of which provides an independent basis for our decision, we hold that as applied to Watson the changes effected by subsection 3041.5(b)(2) constitute detriments or material disadvantages in violation of the ex post facto clause.
AFFIRMED.
Notes
. Before then, “case law imposed a requirement that an inmate's sentence be redetermined periodically.”
In re Jackson,
. Estelle appears to have abandoned two other points he pursued before the district court.
First, Estelle argued that Watson "has no constitutionally protected interest based on his hope that he will be granted parole.” This argument lacks merit; numerous cases establish that
*107
prisoners have an interest protected by the ex post facto clause in programs holding out the possibility of reductions in the duration of their incarceration.
See, e.g., Weaver,
Second, apparently attacking the retrospectivity prong of
Weaver,
Estelle argued that Watson's "punishment is not greater than prescribed at the time of the crime/sentence." Even though California enacted the DSL after Watson's crime and conviction, the California Supreme Court has interpreted the law to “ 'place [Watson] in the position as if the DSL parole provisions were the law at the time he committed his offense.' ”
Jackson,
. The distinction between "procedure” and "substance” is a commentary on the basic inquiry rather than a separate doctrine. A retrospective law that is procedural in form must not adversely affect “matters of substance” if it is to survive an ex post facto challenge. The Supreme Court summarized this point cogently in Weaver, stating:
[N]o ex post facto violation occurs if the change effected is merely procedural, and does "not increase the punishment nor [sic] change the ingredients of the offense or the ultimate facts necessary to establish guilt,” Alteration of a substantial right, however, is not merely procedural, even if the statute takes a seemingly procedural form.
. The
Jackson
court went on to reject the ex post facto challenge because "the likelihood that the postponement actually delays release on parole until after the next hearing appears slight."
The California court employed a fundamentally flawed approach when it adopted such factually contingent reasoning. The Supreme Court has stated on numerous occasions that "[t]he [ex post facto] inquiry looks to the challenged provision, and not to any special circumstances that may mitigate its effect on the particular individual,"
Weaver,
