*2 Before: G INSBURG , Chief Judge , and E DWARDS and T ATEL , Circuit Judges .
Opinion for the Court filed by
Circuit Judge
T ATEL .
T ATEL ,
Circuit Judge
: Three years ago, in
Interstate
Natural Gas Ass’n of America v. FERC
,
Various petitioners now challenge the new order. Finding that the Commission engaged in reasoned decision making with respect to both issues, we deny the petitions for review.
I.
We begin with the matching-term cap. In INGAA we held that section 7(b) of the Natural Gas Act (NGA), 15 U.S.C. § 717f(b), protects long-term pipeline capacity holders by prohibiting “‘natural gas compan[ies]’ from ceаsing to provide service to their existing customers” when their contracts expire “unless, after ‘due hearing,’ FERC finds ‘that the present or future public convenience or necessity permit such abandonment.’” , 285 F.3d at 51 (quoting 15 U.S.C. § 717f(b)). For twenty years the Commission has struggled to streamline the regulatory process for contract termination by allowing pre-approved abandonment while meeting its obligations under § 7(b) to protect customers from pipeline market power. See id. at 50-51.
In
United Distribution Cos. v. FERC
,
On remand, FERC adopted a five-year cap.
Pipeline
Service Obligations and Revisions to Regulations Governing
Self-Implementing Transportation Under Part 284 of the
Commission’s Regulations
, 78 F.E.R.C. ¶ 61,186, at 61,774
(1997). We vacated and again remanded, citing (1) FERC’s
unsupported decision to rely on the median contract length; (2)
FERC’s concerns that the cap would “result[] in a bias toward
short-term contracts,” fostering an “imbalance of risks between
pipelines and existing shippers” and raising “the overall cost of
pipeline transportation”; and (3) FERC’s earlier suggestion that
“elimination of the cap would foster efficient competition.”
,
“[W]hether a term-matching cap must be required as part of
the ROFR,” FERC explained, “turns on whether [it] is necessary
to protect the existing long-term shipper from the pipeline’s
exercise of market power.”
Regulation of Short-Term Natural
Gas Transportation Services, and Regulation of Interstate
Natural Gas Transportation Services
, 101 F.E.R.C. ¶ 61,127, at
*5
61,522 (2002) (“Order on Remand”) (citing
UDC
,
In finding the term cap unnecessary, FERC employed the reasoning we sustained in Process Gas Consumers Group v. FERC , 292 F.3d 831 (D.C. Cir. 2002) (“ PGC II ”), a recent decision in a parallel line of cases addressing term-matching caps for new, rather than existing, customers. In PGC II , we rejected challengеs to FERC’s removal of a twenty-year cap for new shippers, accepting the Commission’s determination that “existing regulatory controls already limit [pipelines’] market power, thereby minimiz[ing any] danger that the pipeline will withhold . . . capacity from the market to create [the] artificial scarcity necessary to force shippers to bid for supercompetitive contract terms.” . at 836 (alteration and omission in original) (internal quotation marks omitted). In the ordеr at issue here, the Commission cited several “existing controls” it believed would protect existing shippers from any pipeline exercise of market power: (1) traditional cost-of-service rate regulation; (2) pipelines’ obligation to offer to sell all existing capacity; (3) the Commission’s complaint process, Order on Remand, 101 F.E.R.C. at 61,521; Order on Rehearing, 106 F.E.R.C. at 61,298; (4) the opportunity customers have to offset the cost of unwanted capacity through capаcity release, Order on Rehearing, 106 F.E.R.C. at 61,304; and (5) the constraints on contract conditions imposed by the pro forma tariff reviewed by FERC, id . at 61,303. Given these regulatory controls, FERC concluded that pipelines could exert market power only by refusing to “build additional capacity when demand requires it.” Order on Remand, 101 F.E.R.C. at 61,521. According to the *6 Commission, however, “pipelines would have a greater incentive to build new capacity” since pipelines could only increase profits by investing “in additional facilities to serve the increased demand. Moreover, if [pipelines] did refuse to build new capacity, the shippers could file a complaint.” Id .
FERC acknowledged that unlike the new customers at issue in PGC II , existing shippers enjoy statutory protection from pipeline market power. Id. at 61,522. The Commission explained, however, that the ROFR adequately protects existing customers by “ensur[ing] that, if the existing customer is willing to pay the maximum approved rate and match the cоntract term of a rival bidder, the pipeline may not abandon service to that customer.” .
Represented by petitioner American Gas Association, a
collection of existing shippers now challenge FERC’s
elimination of the matching-term cap, charging that the
Commission reversed “ten years of practice” and failed to
provide “coherent support for the conclusion that the
Commission need no longer concern itself with the exercise of
pipeline monopoly power upon contract expiration.” Pet’rs’
Opening Br. 24. For such claims, our standard of review is both
well established and highly deferential. We will “uphold
FERC’s factual findings if supported by substantial evidence
and . . . endorse its orders so long as they are based on reasoned
decision making.”
Texaco, Inc. v. FERC
,
In
INGAA
, we evaluated the evidence upon which FERC
relied to determine appropriate term caps, examining the data it
used as well as its explanation linking those data to the cap
length selected.
See
As to the first inquiry, petitioners argue that FERC ignored
available evidenсe—indeed, that it failed to look at any data at
all. FERC responds that the only existing evidence came from
regulated markets and that such evidence reveals nothing at all
about the duration of pipeline contracts in competitive markets.
Order on Rehearing, 106 F.E.R.C. at 61,305. FERC is correct.
As we explained in
PGC I
, the relevant question for assessing a
term cap is “whether it will prevent the [pipelines] from
compelling shippers to offer the pipeline longer contracts than
they would in a
competitive
market.”
PGC I
,
Even were we to find the available data useful, under our
second inquiry—the linkage between the evidence before the
Commission and the cap length selected—FERC’s analysis of
the evidence is reasonable. First, FERC found that the evidence
gathered both before and after the imposition of the five-year
cap demonstrates that “the five-year term-matching cap has not
led to shorter contract terms than would otherwise occur,” and
that “customers have generally been able to negotiate contract
terms of less than five years and do not desire longer contracts
because of the risk that their needs will change.” Order on
Remand, 101 F.E.R.C. at 61,523. Second, FERC explained that
the evidence of stable contract duration indicates that regulation
without a term cap fulfills its obligations to the natural gas
market. With this market-based distributive policy, FERC
effectively responded to its own concern, cited in , “thаt
*8
the cap would foster an imbalance of risks between pipelines
and existing shippers,” adversely affecting allocation of both
cost and capacity.
INGAA
,
Having satisfied
INGAA
’s evidentiary requirements, FERC
must still demonstrate it has adequately responded to
petitioners’ “substantial criticisms.” , 285 F.3d at 52
(quoting
UDC
,
Although we decided
PGC II
in a context where the
Commission owed no extra duty to protect shippers from
pipeline market power,
PGC II
, 292 F.3d at 838 (noting the
difference), our reasoning there applies equally to existing
customers. As repeatedly quoted by the Commission,
PGC II
found that “shippers may at times bid up contract length” but
*9
that such bidding “likely reflects not an exercise of [pipelines’]
market power, but rather competitiоn for scarce capacity.” 292
F.3d at 837. Petitioners are therefore incorrect when they assert
that pipelines inevitably exercise market power merely because
scarcity deprives existing customers of alternatives or forces
them to bid higher terms than they desire.
See
Pet’rs’ Opening
Br. 41-45;
see also PGC I
,
Petitioners next argue that FERC failed to address the impact of scarcity on historical captive customers either (1) forced to compete with new electric generation customers for capacity or (2) held captive by virtue of retail access programs. As to the first point, petitioners сontend that removal of the term cap, which allows new customers to bid up contract term, conflicts with FERC’s policy requiring new shippers to pay higher rates reflecting the cost of new construction. Pet’rs’ Opening Br. 48-49. This argument is without merit. Petitioners presented no evidence that existing ROFR shippers competing to renew capacity on a fully subscribed pipeline with different vintages in capacity are not also subject to incremental pricing. See Regulation of Short-Term Natural Gas Transportation Services and Regulation of Interstate Natural Gas *10 Transportation Services , F.E.R.C. Stats. & Regs. [Reg. Preambles 1996-2000] (CCH) ¶ 31,099, at 31,635-36 (“Order No. 637-A”), reh’g , F.E.R.C. Stats. & Regs. [Reg. Preambles 1996-2000] (CCH) ¶ 31,091 (“Order No. 637”), order den. reh’g , 92 F.E.R.C. ¶ 61,602 (2000) (“Order No. 637-B”).
For their second point, petitioners argue that in balancing consumer and pipeline risks, the Commission failed to account for the greater risks faced by local distribution companies (LDCs) bound by retail access programs that threaten their market share while simultaneously obligating them to serve as suppliers of last resоrt. Pet’rs’ Opening Br. 50-54. Given this predicament and the lack of alternative sources of capacity, petitioners contend that the Commission’s rule will allow customers “with greater buying power to bid up the pipeline’s firm, long-term services.” Id . at 53. As a result, LDCs will be forced to “enter into long-term pipeline contracts now to serve markets they may or may not serve in the future.” . at 54.
This argument depends on two false assumptions: (1) that
existing regulations without a term cap leave pipeline market
power unregulated and (2) that § 7(b) obligates FERC to
guarantee shippers the ability to renew their contracts
indefinitely rather than simply provide them the opportunity to
do so.
PGC II
makes clear that a market is not unregulated just
because shippers have no alternative sources of service. 292
F.3d at 837. In , moreover, we accepted as valid FERC’s
concern about creating “an imbalance of risks between pipelines
and existing shippers, allowing shipрers indefinite control over
pipelines’ capacity, but giving the pipelines no corresponding
protection.”
As for petitioners’ concern that uncertainties about future
markets require extra protection, we have made clear that
“LDCs are no different from other industry participants in that
*11
they will have to evaluate future risks in determining how much
capacity to reserve.”
UDC
,
In sum, since FERC must protect existing shippers from market power, not from competition, and given its conclusion that existing regulations protect against the exercise of market power, the Commission reasonably concluded that the ROFR gives existing shippers the competitive advantage that § 7(b) requires while allowing for the most efficient allocation of capacity. We will therefore deny the petitions for review on this issue.
II.
The second issue before us has its origins in Order No. 636,
in which FERC adopted a segmentation policy and expanded
flexible point rights for shippers with firm service.
Pipeline
Service Obligations and Revision to Regulations Governing
Self-Implementing Transportation Under Part 284 of the
Commission’s Regulations
, F.E.R.C. Stats. & Regs. [Reg.
Preambles 1991-1996] (CCH) ¶ 30,939,
reh’g granted & denied
in part
, F.E.R.C. Stats. Regs. [Reg. Preambles 1991-1996]
(CCH) ¶ 30,950 (“Order No. 636-A”),
order on reh’g
, 61
F.E.R.C. ¶ 61,272 (1992) (“Order No. 636-B”). These changes
allowed shippers to segment their capacity and use any receipt
*12
and delivery point within the zone for which they pay
reservation charges. Thrоugh shipper ability to release excess
firm capacity, FERC also created a secondary market for firm
capacity in competition with pipeline interruptible service. With
this new market, shippers acquired increased control over the
capacity for which they pay. In addition to allowing
segmentation, the Commission allowed shippers to engage in
“backhaul/forwardhaul transactions” to the same delivery point.
In
INGAA
, we upheld segmentation аnd flexible point rights as
a general matter,
follows:
Suppose a pipeline runs from A to B to C , and has 10,000 dekatherms of daily capacity, all of which is contracted for from A to C and of which X holds 1000. X ’s market at C declines, and X would like to ship only to B and to release the 1000 in B - C capacity. X learns of . . . Y , who has a right to 1000 dekatherms at C and would like to sell it at B .
Id. at 40. X then forwardhauls 1000 dekatherms to B and releases the B - C portion to Y , who backhauls 1000 dekatherms to B . The result is 2000 dekatherms at point B , 1000 dekatherms in excess of the amount X contracted to have pass through that point.
On remand, FERC defended its decision to allow backhaul/forwardhaul transactions. Order on Remand, 101 F.E.R.C. ¶ 61,127. Various pipelines, represented by *13 Tennessee Gas Pipeline Company, now challеnge that decision. They argue that FERC’s policy effectuated an increase in shippers’ delivery point entitlements and the services pipelines are required to provide, thereby modifying existing contracts. Those contract modifications cannot stand, they argue, because FERC failed to make findings under either the Mobile-Sierra heightened public interest standard or NGA § 7. See generally MCI Telecomms. Corp. v. FCC , 822 F.2d 80, 87 (D.C. Cir. 1987) (describing the Mobile-Sierra standard); 15 U.S.C. § 717f(a). We disagree.
To begin with, contrary to petitioners’ argument, nothing
in
INGAA
“found that the Commission’s policy will modify
contracts.” Pet’rs’ Opening Br. 61. Noting the difference
between contrаct modification and operational feasibility,
INGAA
remanded the backhaul/forwardhaul issue to the
Commission “so that it can more clearly confront the question
of whether this aspect of the orders can stand without additional
findings.” ,
FERC’s conclusion rests on the difference between firm and guaranteed service. As the Commission explained, its
flexible point policy distinguishes between primary points and secondary points. Firm contracts between pipelines and their shippers typically provide that *14 the pipeline will transport up to a specified contract demand frоm a primary receipt point or points listed in the contract to a primary delivery point or points listed in the contract. This provision specifies a shipper’s guaranteed right to firm service.
Order on Rehearing, 106 F.E.R.C. at 61,305 (emphasis added) (footnotes omitted). In contrast to primary firm service, “an out- of-path, secondary firm transaction”—the usual categorization of a backhaul—“receives a lower scheduling priority than primary firm service.” Id. at 61,308. Since backhauls are secondary transactions rather than guaranteed service, backhauling shippers utilize the delivery point on a secondary basis—a basis not covered by the contract. Id.
Even if it is true, as petitioners contend, that the contract specifies the maximum daily quantity of gas parties agree to transport on a firm basis and that released capacity delivered on a secondary basis constitutes firm service, see Order No. 636-A, F.E.R.C. Stats. & Regs. at 30,583 (noting that secondary rights are firm rights that are subordinate to рrimary rights but superior to interruptible rights for scheduling and curtailment purposes), petitioners have not challenged FERC’s contention that given its segmentation and flexible point policy, shippers make use of two types of firm service, primary and secondary, with only the former amounting to guaranteed service. See Order on Rehearing, 106 F.E.R.C. at 61,308. Therefore, secondary transactions—firm but not guaranteed—are not covered by the contracts. . Because the terms of primary sеrvice for which the parties have bargained remain unchanged, FERC’s decision does not modify contracts, even if it affects them.
Petitioners also contend that the backhaul/forwardhaul *15 policy allows shippers to get “more service than they are paying for.” Id. at 61,309. As FERC explained, however,
it is the Commission’s policy that a shipper may use all of the points in a zone for which it is paying on a secondary basis precisely because the shipper must pay the costs of the entire zone. . . . The shipper is getting no more than what it pays for. The pipeline, for its part, has fully allocated its costs and is collecting those costs from its shippers. Id. at 61,310 (footnotes omitted). The Commission further explained that since backhaul/forwardhaul transactions do not alter pipelines’ certificated service levels or specified service entitlements by changing the quantity provisions of their transportation contracts, the policy merely changes the terms of an existing service. Id . at 61,313. Finally, FERC pointed out that should a bаckhaul/forwardhaul transaction cause the pipeline to lose significant revenue, “then a pipeline is permitted to file a new rate case in which more of its costs would be allocated to firm service.” Id. at 61,310.
Because FERC’s backhaul/forwardhaul policy does not
abrogate pipeline contracts, the Commission had no obligation
to make either
Mobile-Sierra
or § 7 findings. Instead, to justify
its new policy, the Commission needed to comply only with
NGA § 5, 15 U.S.C. § 717d. Under NGA § 5, before replaсing
an existing rate or tariff with a new one, the Commission must
demonstrate by substantial evidence that the existing rate or
tariff has become unjust or unreasonable, and that the proposed
rate is both just and reasonable. 15 U.S.C. § 717d;
W. Res., Inc.
v. FERC
,
FERC found that since backhaul/forwardhauls represent a type of segmented transaction, failure to permit them is unjust and unreasonable for the same reasons the Commission gave in Order No. 637 and that we accepted in INGAA , i.e., “it restricts efficient use of cаpacity without adequate justification.” Order on Remand, 101 F.E.R.C. at 61,529; , 285 F.3d at 38 (citing Order No. 637, at 31,304). At the same time, FERC found that permitting these transactions is “just and reasonable because it creates additional supply alternatives for shippers and enhances competition on the pipeline’s system . . .[,] because it provides the kind of flexibility that pipelines enjoyed prior to Order No. 636 and because it will assist in creating more competition in the transportation market.” Order оn Rehearing, 106 F.E.R.C. at 61,307.
“[I]t is within the scope of the agency’s expertise to
make . . . a prediction about the market it regulates, and a
reasonable prediction deserves our deference . . . .”
Envtl.
Action, Inc. v. FERC
,
III.
On remand from INGAA, FERC reevaluated both the term cap and the backhaul/forwardhaul issues and gave satisfactory explanations for its decisions. The petitions for review are denied.
So ordered.
